Penrith Panthers
Entering their fifth consecutive NRL finals series, we know what to expect from the Penrith Panthers at this stage of the season.
Both Ivan Cleary and Isaah Yeo gave fairly generic responses in the post-match last week but the overall message was clear; defence wins premierships.
“Overall… I think our defence has gotten better recently which is really important. It’s necessary in big games; we’re looking forward to that [challenge].” – Ivan Cleary
“We know what we need to fix and we know what wins finals games.” – Isaah Yeo
Closing out the 2024 NRL regular season as the best defensive side in the competition yet again, Nathan Cleary’s latest injury has made things all the more simple for Penrith over the past month. Without the extra gears Cleary usually adds to what has never been a ruthless, efficient attacking team anyway, the Panthers plan has been to tackle their way to a fourth-straight premiership.
We spoke about the spaces around Izack Tago becoming a spot for attacking teams but Ivan has made some minor adjustments – as he alluded to above – to quickly correct the only glaring weakness in this Panthers armour.
With a defensive system that now averages just 16.4 points conceded per game across 27 rounds and the best playmaker in the game at halfback, Penrith will once again enter the 2024 NRL finals series as the team to beat.
Sydney Roosters
Rather than focussing on who isn’t there for the Roosters this week, allow me to highlight who is.
We’ve spoken all season about Easts depth – particularly in the forward pack – and they will need to double down on that power game for this year’s finals series. The Roosters have always been a team that rolls the dice in attack and backs themselves to defend any errors, and I’m tipping that trend to continue into September. Rather than playing coast-to-coast through Sam Walker though, Easts can still flood the ruck and look to generate ruck speed and/or second-phase play for the likes of Connor Watson and James Tedesco.
Few rival forward packs can match Easts for physicality and the Roosters boast some of the best second-phase support players in the NRL today.
Getting the most out of Joey Manu will be another deciding factor for the Sydney Roosters this week.
He’s an attacking dead-end as a run-only half but is at risk of being underused in the centres. We’ve seen Manu adopt a roaming role in the Roosters attack before and this feels like the week to get him one-off the ruck a few times at a retreating defence.
Melbourne Storm
Nothing is a given at this stage of the season but everything on paper is pointing towards another Melbourne Storm premiership.
They’ve been the most consistent team of the regular season on both sides of the ball; tirelessly doing the little things right to lay a platform for what now ranks as the second best attack in the NRL.
While Cameron Munster (14 appearances) and Ryan Papenhuyzen (17) have missed different periods of the year, Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes have stood tall as the competition’s form players in their respective positions. The current combination between hooker and half allows Melbourne to consistently take the right options in attack and translate field position into points. Right-side backrower Eli Katoa has reaped the rewards of that duo all season to the tune of 12 tries and five assists; elite numbers for a backrower.
In a squad that boasts arguably the best spine in the competition however, ironically it’s Melbourne’s defence that can be their point of difference leading into October.
The health of Papenhuyzen therefore becomes imperative; his efforts in the backfield to organise Melbourne’s line and cover ground with his kick defence is sorely underrated at this point in Papenhuyzen’s career.
Cronulla Sharks
Balance will be the deciding factor for Cronulla as they look to overcome a recent finals hoodoo.
They found a winning formula in attack while Nicho Hynes was sidelined and put it all together for a resounding win in NRL Round 27 with Hynes and Braydon Trindall back in the halves.
Where Hynes (57 touches) usually dominates receipts in the Sharks attack, last week Cronulla found a nice balance between him and Trindall (51) on either edge. Hynes’ gravity as a ball player will always pull defensive numbers to his side of the field and the Sharks found points through Trindall on the other edge a few times last week as a result.
Blayke Brailey holds the key to unlocking the best version of this Sharks attack throughout the finals series. If Cronulla’s pack can continue to win the ruck and Brailey continues to pick the right options from behind it, the Sharks profile well to progress deep into September… and quite possibly beyond.
North Queensland Cowboys
Similarly to Manly (see below), the deciding factor in North Queensland’s premiership push lies in their forward pack.
If the Cowboys can win the ruck and dominate field position, a backline featuring Tom Dearden, Scott Drinkwater and Valentine Holmes has proven as recently as last week that it will cut you up on the edges. A typically productive back five helps the Cowboys in this regard, who rank fourth in the NRL for total run metres this season and play with an attack that rivals any club when they get it right.
The issues for North Queensland begin when they start looking for short cuts around the ruck and fail to do the dirty work in favour of a highlight reel play. If they maintain their form in yardage and application in defence however, there’s every reason the Cowboys attack can carry them deep into September.
Newcastle Knights
The surprise inclusion (respectfully) in the 2024 NRL finals series, Newcastle have Kalyn Ponga to thank for delaying their Mad Monday festivities for a second year running.
An experienced forward pack who works hard and has stayed relatively healthy throughout the regular season has kept the Knights there or thereabouts on an historically close premiership ladder. Their ability to defend well and drag games into a grind has papered over an attack that now ranks second last in the NRL after 27 rounds.
Ponga is good enough to win close games with a few special moments – as he did to secure eighth spot for the Knights last week – but I’m pessimistic about Newcastle’s chances in September.
They’re unlikely to go with the likes of North Queensland, Manly or Melbourne in a shootout and their attack doesn’t profile well against the defensive systems of a Penrith, Cronulla or Canterbury.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
I’m usually more of an ‘ex’s and oh’s’ guy but I’m going with something a little more intangible here regarding the Bulldogs finals chances.
Playing with the best defensive system in the NRL for much of the regular season, Canterbury oozed confidence and belief as the Bulldogs bandwagon gathered momentum. That swagger has taken a hit in the past few weeks with a combined 78 points conceded in their last two games, but the reality is Canterbury still boast the second best defensive record in the competition this year.
With Matt Burton’s boot back to complement an otherwise average yardage game, I’m expecting a much improved performance from the Bulldogs in this week’s rematch.
They were outscored by Manly in NRL Round 26 but are by far the more comfortable team in the grind; a recipe for success for Canterbury as they progress into the finals series.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
I’ve rattled on about the variety in Manly’s attack all season. With Lachlan Croker making smart decisions from dummy-half, defending teams have a lot to consider between Daly Cherry-Evans & Haumole Olakau’atu on the right or Jake Trbojevic & Luke Brooks on the left.
The Sea Eagles threaten from try line to try line and sideline to sideline and will be confident of out-scoring any team in a shoot-out. With finals typically producing a more defensive oriented game though, the challenge for Manly is to earn the right to use the ball in attack.
A middle rotation featuring Taniela Paseka, Tof Sipley, Matt Lodge, Nathan Brown and Josh Aloiai is more than capable of dominating territory but inconsistency has plagued Manly’s 2024 campaign.
Whether or not Tom Trbojevic features this week, how Manly fair in the yardage battle will likely be the deciding factor.
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com