Daily MLB Tips – Thursday, September 19

Daily MLB Tips – Thursday, September 19

Thursday’s Home Run Bets  

Ketel Marte @ Colorado Rockies  

  • Marte leads the Diamondbacks in HR against left-handed pitching, while he’s also taken Rockies lefty Austin Gomber deep twice in his career. 

Salvador Perez vs Detroit Tigers 

  • Perez has proven a thorn in the side of Tigers Cy Young contender, Tarik Skubal. The Royals’ veteran has taken him deep on four occasions to go with a pair of doubles across 27 plate appearances.  

William Contreras vs Philadelphia Phillies 

  • Contreras has gone yard once already this week to go with two extra-base hits. He also took Phillies starter Aaron Nola deep when they met in 2021.  
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers, 9:40am  

Another potential NLCS preview is in the works with the Phils and Brew Crew squaring off in the rubber game of their three-game set.  

At his best, Aaron Nola is one of the best arms in the league, but his last two starts have been mediocre at best – allowing four earned runs to a hapless Marlins team, and six to the Mets last week.  

Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has been the polar opposite over the last few months, posting a tidy 3.13 ERA since the All-Star break with only 23 runs allowed across 11 starts.  

Peralta has been susceptible to giving up home runs (he’s allowed 21 during that time frame), but given the Brewers are ranked second in runs scored over the last week, Philly and Nola look the more vulnerable of the two teams. 

  • Tip: Back the Brewers to Win @ $1.92 
  • Player Pick: Aaron Nola Over Earned Runs Allowed 
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers, 10:05am  

Bowden Francis has been one of the stories of the second half of the season, and arguably, the bright spot on Toronto’s lost season.  

The 28-year-old put together another special performance last week against the Mets, giving up just one run across eight innings with only one walk allowed.  

The right-hander doesn’t rack up the K’s, but he does boast a nice mix of off-speed stuff to compliment his cut fastball.  

Against a Rangers team that ranks 26th in runs scored over the last week, I think there are a few decent betting options if you want to cash-in on Bowden’s arm. 

  • Tip: Rangers Under 3.5 Runs  
  • Player Pick: Bowden Francis Under Earned Runs Allowed