We backed the Wests Tigers to clinch their first win of the season at huge odds ($6.75) last week but the footy gods were against us. Despite outscoring North Queensland five tries to four in that contest, a horror night off the tee saw Wests fall short on goal kicking alone last week.
As much as I’m a fan of the narrative, I can’t follow the Tigers again here. St George-Illawarra may be in the bottom tier of the 2024 NRLW ladder but they have displayed wonderful resilience in defence throughout five losses to date. A very young and inexperienced forward pack has been outsized or outclassed at different times while the Dragons fairly one-dimensional attack through Raecene McGregor and Teagan Berry has struggled against the better teams.
In saying that, I like Berry and the Dragons attack to enjoy a few positive looks in this one given how disconnected Wests have been in defence this year. They concede soft metres through the middle which leaves their edges exposed and vulnerable to an attack who can shift the ball and punch holes down the centre corridor; exactly how St George like to play.
The Brisbane Broncos continue to improve their way into the 2024 NRLW regular season, most recently completing a 14-point comeback against the back-to-back defending champs.
Key to Brisbane’s success this year has been their ability to dominate in yardage and play with the lion’s share of field position. They lead the league for kick return and total run metres while enjoying a league-high 52% possession each week thanks to a productive back five and a forward rotation stacked with dynamic ball carriers.
Once they roll into good-ball, the Broncos threaten on either side of the field.
Julia Robinson and Mele Hufanga are constant targets for Gayle Broughton down the left edge while Ali Brigginshaw continues to make smart decisions to finish sets on the right. Hayley Maddick’s ballplaying from fullback has also been key to feeding the genuine finishers along Brisbane’s backline and for that reason I like the Broncos here.
Both packs will earn their fair share of attacking field position but it’s Brisbane who have been more efficient with the ball so far this season.
Gold Coast’s 2024 NRLW campaign continues to go from bad to worse with Lauren Brown – arguably the form halfback of the competition – ruled out for the season with a hand injury. It leaves the Titans in a strangely familiar position with two young halves – Lailani Montgomery and Sienna Lofipo – left to control their attack as Chantay Kiria-Ratu and Lofipo did last year.
The difference between then and now is on the other side of the ball. The Titans played with an historically strong defence last year but are leaking an average 18.4 points per game in season 2024. It’s putting too much pressure on their middling attack to win games in a shoot-out; an approach that doesn’t complement the strengths in this Gold Coast squad through the middle of the field.
Newcastle on the other hand know what works for them right now. They continue to put Tamika Upton into enough positive involvements each week to influence the result while the roleplayers around her do their jobs.
Jesse Southwell gets all the media attention but the Knights attack has actually looked best this year when running through Yasmin Clydesdale and Georgia Roche on the left edge. That’s where I’m looking here.
It all came together for the Roosters attack last week as they put 40 unanswered points on the best defensive system in the NRLW right now.
The Cronulla Sharks copped a few tough calls early before compounding the pressure with errors and poor reads in defence. It was the perfect storm for Easts to go to work; they crashed the middle with big bodies in yardage before Tarryn Aiken got on the ball at an exhausted and disrupted defensive line.
Without Aiken there to pull the trigger this week, I’m a little less confident on the Roosters who send most of their attack through their star halfback. North Queensland have shown wonderful resilience this season to keep games close and pressure their opposition into errors with their defence, something Easts have struggled with in both losses to date.
I’ll be surprised if the Cowboys have enough points in them to best Sydney but they’re a chance to keep it close if they can drag it into a grind. The Roosters attack this year has been poor at best when they fail to generate momentum in the lead up, meaning the key to North Queensland’s chances here lie in their forwards.
It took a healthy dose of luck and a few friendly bounces of the ball, but Canberra impressed in their comeback win over St George last week. They played to their strengths in all four second-half tries; isolating big Grace Kemp onto smaller defenders or buying time for halves Zahara Temara and Ash Quinlan to ballplay at a retreating defence.
The Raiders defence this year has been poor across the field (no team concedes more tries through their middle-third in 2024 than Canberra) and left their attack with too much to do at times.
Parramatta profile similarly as a side whose best performances this season have come on the back of a defensive approach. Their attack is still developing but when they can drag the contest into a grind, the Eels have looked ultra comfortable at different moments this year.
With just two rounds remaining and Parramatta still in the hunt for a Top Four finish, it feels like this is a game the Eels will get up for. In saying that, the Raiders attacking ceiling is higher and I think they can apply pressure via the scoreboard here.
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com