Deciding Factors
Cronulla soared to the top of the NRLW premiership ladder with six wins to start the season but the wheels have fallen off over the last month.
Their slick start against average teams has been exposed by the sides Cronulla now have to face in the finals and their attack will be under the microscope here after averaging just 16.2 points per game this year.
Execution will be the theme of the week for Head Coach Tony Herman after the Sharks managed just two tries from six line breaks against the worst defensive team in the NRLW (Wests Tigers) to close out the regular season.
Ill discipline has been a factor at different times for the Sharks but even when they complete highly, Cronulla don’t consistently trouble the scoreboard.
They roll downfield smartly thanks to a productive backline and a hard working forward rotation and kick well through the boot of Tayla Preston, but that’s where the positives end.
For their attack to look best through five-game rookie Georgia Hannaway while Emma Tonegato, Quincy Dodd and Preston also feature in the spine speaks to the issues in Cronulla’s attack right now.
The Sharks will try to drag this one into a defensive grind but will have to do so without their best defensive middle Holli Wheeler (suspended) and fitness concerns around big minute forwards Brooke Anderson and Rhiannon Byers.
The Brisbane Broncos on the other hand won their way to the 2024 NRLW minor premiership courtesy of the league’s best attack. They’ve been guilty of slow starts throughout the year but have impressed to repeatedly find different ways to win.
A little like the Melbourne Storm in the NRL, the Broncos ask so many questions of the defence at any given time.
One moment it’s Gayle Broughton, Mele Hufanga and Julia Robinson on the left, the next minute Ali Brigginshaw, Shenae Ciesolka and Hayley Maddick are pulling you apart on the right.
With the best forward pack in the women’s game, elite finishers on either edge and the most experienced half in the NRLW to call the shots, this is Brisbane’s game to win.
Try Scorer Percentage Plays
Brisbane’s left edge has scored a league-high 22 tries this season. Broughton is a ballplaying wizard at five-eighth and is using the gravity of Hufanga in the centres and Tazmin Rapana on the edge to disrupt defensive lines and put Robinson into space on the paint.
With a variety of shapes in their toolkit down that left scrumline, I like the usual suspects to cash in for the Broncos here.
- Broncos tips: Mele Hufanga try, Julia Robinson try, Brisbane Broncos win
Cronulla’s best looks with the ball in recent weeks have come through Georgia Hannaway and Tiana Penitani on their left edge.
Penitani is one of the strongest ball carriers in the NRLW and Hannaway has impressed to consistently put her one-on-one with her opposing centre.
If the Sharks are to trouble Brisbane in this one, they need their best players to be highly involved in attack.
- Sharks tips: Tiana Penitani try, Cassie Staples try
Deciding Factors
The Sydney Roosters have charged their way into the Preliminary Finals with an average 32.5 points per game over the past month, making the most of a friendly closing draw to dominate some middling teams and tune up their attack ahead of finals.
To have done so without star halfback Tarryn Aiken makes for a peculiar narrative coming into this one, given how involved she is in their attack with the #7 on her back.
Easts have arguably looked better while Aiken has watched from the sidelines.
A bit like the current Roosters NRL side, Easts have been forced to simplify their game and play an aggressive, direct style of football through the middle of the field while a key playmaker is missing.
No team has scored more tries by crashing over in good-ball than the Roosters this season but how that approach fairs against the better defensive teams now becomes the question.
Newcastle on the other hand currently play with the best attacking system in the women’s game.
They too have piled on the points in recent weeks but have done so in a very different fashion to the Roosters. Rather than crashing over with brute strength, the class of Tamika Upton continues to make a mockery of would-be edge defenders.
With five tries and nine assists from her last five appearances, Upton is proving impossible to contain down short sides or in the second-layer of a shift.
Her combination with five-eighth Georgia Roche – who has leapfrogged Jesse Southwell as Newcastle’s primary playmaker – has been a key reason for the Knights good form and I can’t believe they were listed as $2.40 outsiders earlier in the week.
Try Scorer Percentage Plays
I’m all over the value in Newcastle to win here.
They can match it with Easts through the middle but it’s the Knights who have more repeatable and efficient attacking form in good-ball.
Look for Roche to tip Yasmin Clydesdale close to the line or use her as a decoy before putting Upton into space out the back, also playing for Upton to target retreating defenders down short sides and use that signature double-pump to put her centre over untouched.
- Knights tips: Newcastle Knights win, Abigail Roche try, Shanice Parker try
It’s going to take a clinical performance from the Roosters to win this but they’ve got the cattle to do it. Keeley Davis is doing a good job at isolating the big bodies of Otesa Pule and Amber Hall onto smaller defenders close to the line, while halfback Jocellyn Kelleher has tipped Olivia Kernick into some lovely backrower involvements in recent weeks.
- Roosters tips: Otesa Pule try, Olivia Kernick try
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com