Canterbury and Newcastle have exited the premiership race after hard-fought losses last week and we will see two more exit this week with Allianz Stadium hosting two compelling semi-finals this weekend.
The Sharks will be looking to quieten the whispers surrounding the form of star Nicho Hynes in big games when they host the Cowboys while the Roosters are looking to prove that they can survive without half Sam Walker when they tackle a firing Manly side.
Cronulla were terribly disappointed with their performance against Melbourne last week, spilling the kickoff and never recovering in a 27-point defeat.
It led to calls for Nicho Hynes to be dropped while the Sharks’ gumption in finals has been questioned.
That puts them in a good bounceback spot against a Cowboys team that were lucky to get away at home against Newcastle.
The Sharks have dominated the Cowboys with 11 wins in their last 13 clashes including six wins from seven in Sydney and three of the last four meetings in the Harbour City have seen the Sharks win by 36-plus.
The Sharks have covered seven of 11 off a 20-point loss while the Cowboys are 7-15 against the number v Top 4 teams.
However the top play in this one is the over, which has hit in four of the last five meetings between these two.
The over is also 9-2 when the Sharks are off a loss of 20 or more while it is 6-1 when they are off conceding 36-plus.
For the Cowboys, the over is 19-10 when they are off a double digit win and is 15-10 when they are off conceding 16 or fewer.
Briton Nikora has six tries in his last six games, Kayal Iro has figured his way to the line with five tries in his last eight games including his last against the Cowboys, Kyle Feldt is a tryscoring machine with 12 tries in his last seven matches, scoring in all bar three games since Round 9.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 45.5 ($1.83)
- Next: Cronulla Win/Over 45.5 ($2.65)
- Tryscorer: Briton Nikora ($13 First, $2.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Briton Nikora Try/Kayal Iro Try/Kyle Feldt Try ($13.97)
The Roosters and Sea Eagles have met in some big finals games dating back to 1972 with the Sea Eagles recently hammering the Chooks in 2021 and this one stacks right up with them.
Despite ranking amongst premiership favourites all season, the Roosters’ hopes took a major blow when Sam Walker and Victor Radley were ruled out for the season, along with Brandon Smith.
Perhaps a miracle is in the making though with Victor Radley named in the extended squad while Jared Waerea-Hatgreaves is back from his latest suspension.
JWH and Radley would certainly bring back some of the physical toughness through the middle needed to win these types of finals, and this is certainly the Roosters’ game to lose.
Over the last decade, the Top 4 loser is 15-5 against the Bottom 4 winner in Week 2 of the finals.
The Chooks are 10-4 against the spread off a loss while they are 36-25 against the spread against teams outside the Top 4 and Manly are 9-14 against the number against Top 4 teams.
Tom Trbojevic is not nearly 100% and he needs to be for the Sea Eagles to be any hope.
Angus Crichton has 11 tries in 21 games this season, a super return for the backrower, James Tedesco has eight four-pointers in his last 10 matches and Dom Young is an elite tryscorer with 62 tries in 71 matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Sydney Roosters -2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Sydney Roosters 13+ ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Angus Crichton ($16 First, $2.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Angus Crichton Try/James Tedesco Try/Dom Young Try ($10.55)