What a dramatic final weekend we have of NRL action with nearly every game holding plenty of importance.
The real action kicks off on Friday night with ‘The Spoon Bowl’ between the Tigers and Eels with the loser claiming the unfortunate honour of last place in 2024.
The Bulldogs and Cowboys on Saturday afternoon have a critical match that will determine who finishes fifth and gets a much easier run than playing the Sea Eagles in the opening week of the finals, potentially at Brookvale.
The Roosters and Panthers are heavily favoured while the Sharks are marginal outsiders as they jostle for position inside the Top 4.
Finally we finish off with what is essentially an old school playoff with the winner of the Knights and Dolphins finals bound.
Thursday Night Football will have little bearing on the makeup of the ladder with the Storm locked into top spot and the Broncos done and dusted.
Much like Wayne Bennett last week, Craig Bellamy loves little more than beating up on the Broncos. And he has done that like clockwork for two decades.
The Storm are 38-6 against the Broncos since 2004 with 25 covers in their last 34 meetings and Melbourne are in a great spot.
Top 4 teams off a loss cover at 85%, and Melbourne has covered six of seven interstate, plus the Storm have gone 29-17 against the spread when facing teams outside the Top 8.
With the Broncos losing Payne Haas and Kotoni Staggs and ripped by internal division, they look ripe for the picking.
Grant Anderson has scored in six straight starting on the wing for the Storm, Will Warbrick has 10 tries in 19 games this season and Eli Katoa has 11 tries in his last 18 matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -15.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 30+ ($3.60)
- Tryscorer: Grant Anderson ($8.50 First, $1.58 Anytime)
- SGM: Grant Anderson Try/Will Warbrick Try/Eliesa Katoa Try ($7.29)
The Spoon Bowl has been the talk of Rugby League with the loser of this one set to claim the wooden spoon – what would be the third straight for the Tigers or the fourth in 14 seasons for the Eels. Campbelltown is sold out and the Tigers do present as value in this one.
The Tigers come off a bye and downed Manly the week prior.
They have covered the last two at Campbelltown and have covered six of nine off scoring 30-plus.
This week they meet an Eels team that is 2-6 against the spread off a win and 5 of 22 in night games and are also coached by Trent Barrett, who is 15-56 the last four seasons.
Barrett already has one wooden spoon and this will be his fourth bottom four finish in six seasons.
Lachie Galvin has just four tries this year but is a quality backup merchant who can score in a likely open affair.
Api Koroisau is in good tryscoring form with four tries in his last 13 matches and Maika Sivo has 15 tries in 11 matches this season and comes off a hat-trick.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Wests Tigers 13+ ($4.50)
- Tryscorer: Lachlan Galvin ($23 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Lachlan Galvin Try/Api Koroisau Try/Maika Sivo Try ($19.45)
The Roosters have dominated of late with three straight wins over the Rabbitohs but Souths look a big chance.
The Rabbitohs have won four of the last five at Accor and can take advantage of a Roosters team that has lost five pretty valuable starters, most notably halfback Sam Walker.
Despite Souths missing plenty of key personnel as well they should be right up for this one, having covered four of their last five at Accor.
The Roosters have covered just one of five at the ground while they are 7-15 against the spread as a double digit road favourite, so the Bunnies plus looks very big.
Tyrone Munro is emerging as an elite tryscorer with five tries in six games including a double against the Panthers last week.
Jacob Gagai gets a plus-matchup on Junior Pauga and James Tedesco has scored in five of his last eight.
Recommended Bets
- Best: South Sydney +13.5 ($1.90)
- Next: South Sydney Win ($4.00)
- Tryscorer: Tyrone Munro ($10.50 First, $1.88 Anytime)
- SGM: Tyrone Munro Try/Jacob Gagai Try/James Tedesco Try ($8.61)
A terrible differential likely has both these teams playing for nothing here but on the off chance of a draw between the Knights and the Dolphins, both teams will likely play this hard.
The Dragons were shamed last week against the Eels, throwing away a finals berth with a heinous showing.
Coach Shane Flanagan tore shreds off his team and that should garner a response this week.
The Dragons are 4-1 against the spread off conceding 36 or more while they are 13-7 against the number at Kogarah and are 20-10 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8.
The Raiders have been improved the last two weeks but they are 9-24 against the number against teams outside the Top 8.
Luciano Leilua is a beast with the ball and he has three tries in his last 11 games and Xavier Savage has six tries in his last seven games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra Win ($1.70)
- Next: St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3.05)
- Tryscorer: Luciano Leilua ($31 First, $4.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Luciano Leilua Try/Xavier Savage Try ($9.11)
This clash is going to have a major bearing on the bottom half of the Top 8 with the winner locks in fifth spot and a home final against either the Knights or the Dolphins.
The loser plays Manly and if the Sea Eagles win on Sunday, it will be at Brookvale.
Canterbury are without Matt Burton and Bronson Xerri but do get inspirational skipper Stephen Crichton back.
The Cowboys have had distractions this week though and Canterbury will likely lean on their defence.
They are 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 while they have covered six of eight against Top 8 opposition, so expect the Bulldogs to really dig in here.
Jacob Preston is an underrated tryscorer with 12 tries in 36 games and Josh Addo-Carr is one of the great all-time tryscorers and he has seven tries in his last six games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury Win ($1.75)
- Next: Canterbury 1-12 ($3.00)
- Tryscorer: Jacob Preston ($19 First, $3.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Jacob Preston Try/Josh Addo-Carr Try ($5.50)
The Titans have clearly been eyeing Mad Monday for a month now and that is a bad position to be in when playing a Penrith team looking to run itself into form heading into the finals.
Penrith have won five straight against Gold Coast with four of those by 14-plus.
The Panthers have a 15-8 cover record against Top teams outside the Top 8 while they are 25-16 against the number at Penrith Stadium and Gold Coast have covered just 11 of 32 interstate.
This is going one way and one way only.
Paul Alamoti has five tries in 12 games since joining the Panthers and Dylan Edwards has five tries in seven games against the Titans.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -19.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast 10 Points or Less ($2.30)
- Tryscorer: Paul Alamoti ($14 First, $2.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Paul Alamoti Try/Dylan Edwards Try ($4.52)
Bettors should be wary of this one for two reasons: Tom Trbojevic is missing and prior results may lock the Sharks into fourth spot, meaning they could rest a whole slate of stars.
All being equal though and the Sharks roll out near full strength, they should be favoured with Manly playing sans-Turbo.
Top 4 teams off a loss cover at 85% Rounds 21-27 while the Sharks are 22-14 against the spread as an underdog.
With the Sharks covering five of six against Manly, the Sharks look the play.
Briton Nikora has six tries in his last 10 games, Braydon Trindall has 10 tries in 16 games this season and is a great runner of the ball.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla +1.5 ($1.98)
- Next: Cronulla 1-12 ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Briton Nikora ($21 First, $3.30 Anytime)
- SGM: Briton Nikora Try/Braydon Trindall ($10.02)
The final round of the regular season is shaping as a classic with the winner of the Knights and Dolphins fighting it out for the last finals position.
Newcastle have covered 18 of 21 afternoon games but are just 4-8 against the spread off a win of 20-plus.
The Dolphins have covered 20 of 33 as an underdog including six of nine as a small underdog of less than a converted try.
With a major edge in both talent and coaching, the Dolphins are a confident bet.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 14 tries in 15 games and gets a great matchup against Dane Gagai, while Jack Bostock is having a breakout year with 14 tries in 22 appearances.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins 13+ ($4.75)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($10.50 First, $1.95 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Jack Bostock Try ($4.29)