Preliminary finals weekend is here and the Top 4 teams from the regular season are the four remaining. Home teams and recipients of the week off Melbourne and Penrith are heavily favoured to meet in the decider, their second in five years.
The Storm will host the Sydney Roosters as the Chooks look to put to bed question marks over how they travel against the top teams in the NRL while the Sharks will need nothing short of a miracle to even challenge a Penrith team that has gears others don’t when it comes to finals footy.
Preliminary Finals matches have almost exclusively gone to the home team who enjoyed a week off in recent years and those teams have typically won very big with five of the last eight prelims won by 20-plus points, the team off the rest week has won 15 of 20.
The scenario sets up perfectly for the Storm and the matchup only enhances confidence.
The Storm are 10-1 in the last 11 against the Roosters with nine covers over that run.
They have restricted the Chooks to 18 or fewer in the last 10 while topping that number in 10 of their last 11.
Melbourne have covered 14 of 21 when a double digit favourite at AAMI while they are 18-9 against the number off scoring at least 36.
The big knock on the Roosters in recent years has been their inability to perform against the Panthers and the Storm and not only do they lose, they don’t even win at the line, covering just three of 17 against the duo.
They have also covered just three of 10 getting a start of at least eight points and six of 20 off scoring 36-plus, this should be one-way traffic.
Will Warbrick broke Rooster hearts last year with a try in the final minute to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, scoring 32 tries in 47 appearances.
Ryan Papenhuyzen has 57 tries in 72 NRL matches when starting and Jahrome Hughes has seven tries in his last 10 matches against the Tricolours.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -10.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 19+ ($2.70)
- Tryscorer: Will Warbrick ($8.25 First, $1.73 Anytime)
- SGM: Will Warbrick Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Jahrome Hughes Try ($11.24)
It is hard to envisage a scenario where Cronulla get anywhere near Penrith in this game, it was surprising that the line opened so low with many astute judges pricing this game up as Penrith laying 18.5 points.
As noted in the Storm-Roosters preview, Preliminary Finals favour those rested, playing at home and usually with superior talent and that is certainly the case here.
The Panthers have covered six of eight against the Sharks with five of those wins coming by 27 or more points.
The Sharks have been held scoreless in three of their last five against Penrith.
Not only does the history reads very poorly for the Sharks but so should Penrith’s ability to elevate to another level in big games with the Panthers 20-11 against Top 4 teams and covering six of their last seven finals matches.
The Sharks have covered just three of their last 15 against Top 4 opposition and have a diabolical recent finals record.
Much like the Storm, this projects as a one-goer.
Luke Garner has been in sublime tryscoring form with four tries in his last three matches and seven in his last eight.
He runs an outstanding line on the left edge and chases kicks as well as any backrower, Nathan Cleary has four tries in his last six finals and has crossed in his last two prelims.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -11.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Cronulla 0-10 Points ($2.15)
- Tryscorer: Luke Garner ($13 First, $2.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Luke Garner Try/Nathan Cleary Try ($7.05)