The finals are upon us and what an opening week we have. Penrith welcome back Nathan Cleary on Friday night and are heavily favoured against an injury-riddled Sydney Roosters team that still has plenty of talent.
The Storm host the Sharks in the second qualifying final on Saturday afternoon and will be thrilled to get Ryan Papenhuyzen back at fullback.
Newcastle snuck into the finals but will fancy their chances even travelling to Townsville to meet the Cowboys.
The opening week finishes off with Canterbury’s return to the finals for the first time since 2016 and have the Josh Addo-Carr saga hanging over the club with Manly now favourites with Tom Trbojevic returning from injury.
Penrith’s pursuit of a remarkable four straight premiership titles begins in earnest on Friday night with the old Penrith Park set to host its final match.
With Nathan Cleary returning and the Sydney Roosters missing halfback Sam Walker to a knee injury, this is all lining up for the Panthers.
Even when fully fit, the Roosters have struggled against the better teams in the premiership, covering just three of 16 against the Panthers and Storm the last four seasons.
The Panthers have won nine straight against the Roosters, scoring at least 20 in each of those and the Roosters have passed 18 just once.
Penrith are 25-17 against the number at home and 19-11 against the number against Top 4 teams, while the Roosters have covered just seven of 19 as an underdog of at least a try.
A strong kicking game is needed to beat Penrith and no Sam Walker ends that, the Panthers should run away with this one.
Nathan Cleary has scored nine tries in his last 13 finals and looks big value to win, while Brian To’o has eight tries in his last 10 matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -7.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Penrith 31-40 Points ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: Nathan Cleary ($15 First, $2.95 Anytime)
- SGM: Penrith Win/Nathan Cleary Try/Brian To’o Try ($6.18)
The Storm marched to another minor premiership and are as healthy as any team in the finals but the Sharks are no pushovers and their branding as struggling against the top teams is outdated and helped form a line that is way too big.
Cronulla have been severely underestimated in this one and shape as an outstanding bet to cover and a value play to win.
The Sharks have won two of the last three against Melbourne including a highly impressive 25-18 win in Round 10.
The Sharks have covered five of their last six against Top 4 opposition while they are 16-9 against the spread as an underdog of a try or more.
The Storm have won just one of their last five finals and have covered just three of 10 at AAMI, which makes the Sharks a super bet.
Briton Nikora has five tries in his last five games and is in the throes of his best tryscoring season, Ryan Papenhuyzen has five tries in six games against the Sharks and Will Warbrick has 11 tries in his last 15 games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla +10.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Cronulla Win ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Briton Nikora ($21 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Will Warbrick Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Briton Nikora Try ($15.01)
North Queensland have been extraordinarily hot over the backend of the season.
Since Round 17, the Cowboys have five wins against Top 8 teams including Penrith, topping 38 in four of their last five.
It is hard to look past their 42-18 loss to Brisbane at home in Round 23 though, where the Cowboys just turned it up and got thumped by a significantly inferior team.
Newcastle have been significantly improved as a team over the backend of the year with their defence showing a notable jump, going 10-2 against the spread on the road and have covered 13 of 17 interstate.
They have also covered six straight interstate getting when more than a converted try.
The Cowboys are the better team and they could win this by 30 but fancy the Knights as a bet as they can beat a Cowboys team that has covered just three of 14 at home if North Queensland are off.
Dylan Lucas matches up on woeful defender Jeremiah Nanai and he has four tries in his last seven starts, Kyle Feldt scored 22 tries in the regular season including 11 in the last six weeks and Bradman Best has 20 tries in his last 42 matches across the last two seasons.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle +7.5 ($1.98)
- Next: Newcastle Win ($3.05)
- Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($23 First, $3.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Kyle Feldt Try/Bradman Best Try ($18.02)
The Bulldogs end a long finals drought on Sunday afternoon but all has not gone to plan with Josh Addo-Carr stepping aside and the Sea Eagles, a team they have long struggled with, standing opposite.
The fitness of Tom Trbojevic is key, scoring 13 tries in his last six games against the Bulldogs but carries a notable shoulder injury that will need to be needled up for this game.
Manly have won 10 of 11 against Canterbury, covering nine of 11, but the Bulldogs have covered 15 of 22.
The best bet in this game is the over with a very low total, and the over is 8-3 when the Bulldogs are off a loss while it is 40-22 when Manly are off scoring at least 20 and 22-14 when they are off a loss.
As for a tryscorer, Bronson Xerri has seven in his last eight matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 43.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Over 49.5 ($2.80)
- Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($9.25 First, $1.94 Anytime)
- SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Bronson Xerri Try ($5.29)