The Cowboys and Sea Eagles are the latest two teams to bid farewell to the 2024 NRL season.
Two of the most exciting attacking outfits on their day who both threatened to cause an upset in this finals series, a combination of injuries and poor defensive habits were eventually exposed in Week 2 of the NRL Finals.
North Queensland’s performance against Cronulla on Saturday night encapsulated their season inside 80 minutes.
We saw glimpses of a scintillating attack – five line breaks and three tries with just 42% of possession is an impressive feat – that was ultimately put under too much pressure by irregular lapses of concentration in defence.
Todd Payten spoke at length post-game about North Queensland needing to improve in the grind and embrace the ‘tough stuff’ more consistently, they set a high bar for those effort areas in 2022 but those inconsistencies have been a theme for the Cowboys ever since.
Youth and inexperience are fair explanations (not excuses) for these lapses and it’s reasonable to expect North Queensland will continue to improve in this regard.
They’re headed in a likable direction with Scott Drinkwater, Tom Dearden, Jake Clifford, Reece Robson and Reuben Cotter a nice spine to build a team around.
Shout out also to Sam McIntyre for a career year; he plays well above his weight through the middle and can take on an elevated passing role in their attack, moving forward.
For the Sea Eagles, season 2024 can only be considered a step in the right direction.
It’s difficult to not play ‘Turbo Ball’ when Tom Trbojevic wears the #1 jumper but we saw a concerted effort from Manly to add new layers to their attack this year and for the most part, they succeeded.
Luke Brooks and Jake Trbojevic developed a nice combination on the left while Haumole Olakau’atu added a passing game to vary the problems he causes for edge defenders on the right. Out wider still, young Lehi Hopoate could be anything with another pre-season or two under his belt.
In a year where Manly’s first-choice spine managed just 15 of 26 possible games together, losing two key players to HIA’s in the first 20 seconds of a semi-final was a poetic way for their 2024 campaign to end.
NRL Finals Week 3 – Deciding Factors
Melbourne
Craig Bellamy has had two weeks to plan for this encounter and history suggests the Storm do quite well when given time to prepare.
We spoke on the NRL Unpopular Opinions Podcast this week about Melbourne’s ability to embrace the grind and absorb pressure for extended periods throughout a contest. The Sea Eagles impressed to stay in the arm wrestle early with Easts last week but ultimately they didn’t threaten enough with the ball themselves to inspire an unlikely comeback.
Melbourne’s point of difference is their willingness and ability to pull the trigger from anywhere on the field. No team in the NRL soaks up pressure with their defence or kicking game before firing a shot in attack like the Melbourne Storm. They’ll kick and tackle their way into the contest and wait for Easts to make an error before striking.
The beauty of the Storm’s attack is in its variety, Jahrome Hughes is in the driver’s seat right now after a killer 2024 regular season but if Easts stack numbers on his side, the spaces will open up for Cameron Munster on the left or Harry Grant through the middle.
They ask so many questions of the defence across the 80 minutes and it will require a clinical performance from the Roosters on both sides of the ball (see below) to deny the Melbourne Storm another Grand Final appearance.
Easts
A Sam Walker-led Roosters attack has somewhat of a ‘gunslinger’ reputation in the NRL today.
Easts have long adopted a high-risk, high-reward approach with the ball and Walker is the perfect halfback to execute it on the field.
With a 28-game NRL rookie in the #7 jumper last week though, Easts took a very different approach to their attack.
The numbers confirm this; with 56% of the total possession and an 87% completion rate, the Roosters simply starved Manly out of the contest last week.
Their improved discipline on both sides of the ball (11 missed tackles, 4 penalties) allowed Easts to control proceedings early before finding points late once fatigue set in.
It’s a winning formula for the Roosters here given how ruthless Melbourne are when gifted cheap possession (see above).
If Easts can maintain their discipline and turn the ball over in positive areas on the field however, they can apply pressure with a power game through the middle third.
If the physicality of guys like Joseph Sua’ali’i, Jared Warea-Hargreaves, Lindsay Collins, Angus Crichton and Spencer Leniu can unsettled Melbourne’s line, there’s enough creativity or support in the second-phase for the Roosters to turn half chances into points.
It won’t be a cricket score like last week, but the best version of this Roosters side can beat Melbourne at their own game here.
Whether we see that version is the question.
Penrith
We all know by now about Penrith’s productive back five and their ultra-connected defensive line through the middle of the field and we’ll hear plenty of rhetoric about both in the lead up, so I want to focus on something else today.
While the Panthers have never played with the most ruthless or efficient attack, they usually spend more than enough time on their opposition’s try line to slow pile on the points.
Key to that patient approach is Nathan Cleary’s ability to identify and target weaknesses in a defensive line.
Luke Garner’s second try last week off an early Cleary kick is the best and most recent example.
For those who didn’t see Shaun Johnson break it down on his podcast this week, Cleary orchestrated a seemingly innocuous sequence specifically to force James Tedesco into the front line, before kicking on third tackle for Garner to score.
Little details like that are what makes Cleary and the Panthers such a force, particularly in the finals.
Their defence always keeps them in a position to win games with a single play, and Cleary is the best in the business at building towards and icing that play.
I’m expecting him to test the spaces around Nicho Hynes and Jesse Ramien all night in this one.
Cronulla
In a similar vein to the Roosters expected physical approach against Melbourne (above), the best version of this Cronulla Sharks side can upset the defending premiers here.
The secret for Cronulla lies in the numbers from last Friday’s win over North Queensland; they’re unlikely to bust 52 tackles and release 18 offloads again this week but generating second-phase play is crucial to disrupting the best defensive system in the NRL.
Cronulla have looked best this year when they flood the ruck with big, dynamic bodies who can break tackles and pop an offload through traffic.
Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall are both dangerous when getting over the ad-line at a retreating defence, and it’s imperative the Sharks give this pair plenty of positive looks in the second-phase. How Hynes and Trindall finish their sets will also be key; Trindall nailed his kicking involvements last week to pin North Queensland in the corners and he needs to do the same to Penrith here.
A productive back five is the other key point of difference for Cronulla in this one. All four of Jesse Ramien, Ronaldo Mulitalo, Kayal Iro and Sione Katoa clocked 20+ runs last week to get busy in yardage and create a platform for their middles.
If we’re to see the best version of this Sharks attack, it will need to start on their kick returns.
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com