The second week of Finals looms large with all four teams facing do-or-die scenarios.
Friday’s meeting between Port and Hawthorn should be a thrilling rematch of their previous encounter that was decided by a single point, while the Lions face an enormous test away from the Gabba when they meet a Giants side looking to bounce back from a devastating loss to the Swans.
Both games are a genuine coin flip, but with a spot in the Prelim on the line, we’ve got you covered with insight and tips below.
The narrative surrounding this game tells you all you need to know.
Port and the Hawks famously bet back in Round 10, a game that featured one of the most memorable comebacks of the season as Ken Hinkley’s Power erased a five-goal deficit to win by a single point at home.
Hawthorn fans long thought their club might miss out on finals due to that result alone, but in many ways, that exact loss has proven the catalyst to their form turnaround and red-hot play of late.
It took the young Hawks a moment to settle into last Friday’s do-or-die clash against the Dogs, but once they found their feet, their blistering play off halfback and their ability to score goals in quick succession shined.
James Sicily was a rock down back, and although Mabior Chol struggled all night, the Hawks still found great production up forward from young recruit Calsher Dear and the ‘Wizard’ Nick Watson.
Port, on the other hand, were easily the most disappointing team to emerge from the first week of Finals, losing by 84 points on their home deck to a rampart Cats outfit.
The Power never looked up for the fight from the very beginning, struggling to move the ball yet again and misfiring in front of the posts – a common theme all season.
As Hinkley already knows, similar mistakes will see the Power undone early against a feisty Hawks teams that can hurt you in a plethora of ways.
When these two sides last met, Blake Hardwick surprisingly kicked five goals, while it’s worth noting the Hawks were also without Sicily that afternoon.
The Hawks are playing with a genuine edge that we haven’t seen for many, many years, and it’s fair to say their carefree, ‘lack of expectations’ style of footy has helped take the pressure off some of the younger players.
For Port to win, they need the very best from Willie Rioli and Jason Horne-Francis, but with the Hawks loaded with weapons, and Sam Mitchell also looking to prove a point after admitting he blew the game from the coaches box against the Power back in May, it’s no real surprise to find the brown and gold favoured.
The Lions head south to the Showgrounds for the first time since 2020 on Saturday afternoon.
Similar to Friday’s game, these two foes are plenty familiar with one another, having only met just over a month ago at the Gabba.
GWS fell behind early and appeared headed for a blowout loss that afternoon, before an Adam Kingsley half-time spray proved the difference on their way to a comfortable 18-point win.
Finishing with three goals, Jesse Hogan was instrumental down the stretch, while the Giants also worked hard to get on top of the stoppages in the second half.
Down back, the Lions really struggled to keep up with GWS’ forward line, and it will be fascinating to see if Harris Andrews takes Hogan one on one.
Like so many other clubs, the Lions continue to prove their own worst enemy in front of goal. Last week’s blowout win over Carlton was promising, but it’s fair to say Brisbane should have won by much more after kicking 14 goals and 15 behinds
A win at home should give the Lions confidence, but at the same time, the Giants will be hungry to improve on their own blown loss last week against the Swans, a game they’d probably like to have back after leading by th see goals at the three-quarter break.
For Brisbane to win, they’ll need Lachie Neale or Hugh McCluggage to don the superhero cape – similar to the one Chad Warner wore last week in the final term for the Swans.
For the Giants, they need to maintain their momentum and also find a way to stop the previously mentioned Neale, McCluggage, and Josh Dunkley from racking up contested possessions.
Brisbane playing on in unfamiliar territory is worth taking into consideration when it comes to betting, but if they kick straight and also repeat the formula that saw them lead comfortably over the orange tsunami when they met last month, they might cause a minor upset on the road.