They say history is doomed to repeat itself, and that is certainly the case this Saturday when the Swans and Lions meet in the AFL Grand Final for the first time since 1899.
Both sides have taken entirely different paths to arrive at this point, but after putting on a two-point thriller at the Gabba only two months earlier, this year’s decider promises to be another thriller.
Can the Swans jag their first flag since 2012? Or will the Lions recapture some of their former glory years and finally break through for Chris Fagan?
Our thoughts and best betting plays below!
The Swans have been flag favourites for most of the way through, although they did present with question marks toward the back end of the year when losing three in a row – starting with their first loss against this same Brisbane side.
Sydney’s run through the finals has put those doubts to bed however, storming back from a serious deficit to knock off rivals GWS in Week 1, before putting the foot down at home last week in a six-goal demolition over Port Adelaide.
Issac Heeney has hands down been of the game’s best players all year, and he will be relied upon heavily to make an impact on the scoreboard – something he failed to do when these two sides got together in Round 19.
As already mentioned, the Swans match up nicely with the Lions through the midfield, but they could hold a major advantage through the ruck with Brodie Grundy a serious X-factor now that Oscar McInerney has been ruled out.
Not dissimilar to Brisbane, the Swans won’t want to find themselves on the back foot, either.
They’ve notoriously been slow starters for most of the year, winning the first quarter on only nine occasions, and it’s fair to say a comeback at the MCG is much more difficult compared to at home.
A flag would be a fitting end to Brisbane’s fairytale season.
After starting 0-3, it’s hard to argue that there is a more deserving coach of lifting the Premeirship Cup than Chris Fagan.
The season got off to a disastrous start for last year’s narrow Grand Final runner-ups, but down the stretch, the Lions’ resolve has been stronger than most when faced with injuries, criticism, or seemingly insurmountable deficits at various points through games.
The loss of key ruckman Oscar McInerney is a huge blow heading into Saturday, but the Lions do have depth to fall back on with Darcy Fort likely to return to the side, and Joe Daniher proving capable of helping out when needed.
Through the midfield, the Lions matchup beautifully with the Swans, and despite a quiet night at the Brownlow polls on Monday, the trio of Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, and Josh Dunkley can thwart the likes of Chad Warner and Errol Gulden.
Up forward, the Lions can be deadly on the scoreboard with Daniher in career-best form and emerging stars like Kai Lohmann and the always reliable Callum Ah-Chee capable of making a sneaky impact.
Kicking straight, as has been the case all season, will prove Brisbane’s biggest challenge, while they’re also set to meet their match around the clearances with Sydney holding opponents to the fourth-fewest per-game.
More so than last year, the Lions won’t have to answer the same questions surrounding their troubles at the MCG. They’ve beaten Melbourne, and more recently Geelong at the ground this year, a handy scalp after last year’s heartbreak on this same stage.
It sounds strange to say this for a team that leads the league in first quarters won, but starting fast is paramount to the Lions’ chances against a Swans side capable of scoring in a hurry.
Their last meeting back in Round 19 saw Brisbane trail by a handful of goals at the main break, before Hugh McCluggage took over with three goals to capitalize on injuries to Tom Papley and Dane Rampe.
That same story is unlikely to play out on Saturday, so a fast start and the ability to ride the bumps and play four focused quarters is what stands between Brisbane and a well-overdue flag.
The Lions are set to start slight outsiders, which does play into their hands given they own a perfect 6-0 record at the line as the away underdog over the last 12 months.
That said, Brisbane has struggled to cover in this spot against the Swans, sporting a 2-5 record.
One could argue the Lions may have played their Grand Final last week, but whether their recent stretch of games against Carlton, GWS, and Geelong proves the difference remains to be seen.
In terms of experience, both sides match up quite evenly, particularly down back.
Harris Andrew and Dane Rampe are the lynchpins of their respective back lines, but I do think Brandon Starcevich and Ryan Lester could prove the difference for the Lions after causing the Cats headaches last week.
Always a dart board this market, but it’s a sure-fire way to land some value and kick off Grand Final Day on the right note.
The option that stands out the most for mine is Will Hayward at a cool $12.00.
The Lions are likely to put early work into Issac Heeney, and as we saw when these two last met, that should open up some opportunities for Heyward to find space.
It is Melbourne, so even though we have fine weather forecast, expect the unexpected.
Trends-wise, the Over has saluted in seven of the last 11 meetings between Brisbane and Sydney, but given their knack for slow starts and Brisbane’s wayward goal kicking at times, the Under looks the play.
The first two in the market (Issac Heeney and Lachie Neale) speak for themselves, but the value might be on Cam Rayner if he plays like he did last week.
His hot and cold streaks can be frustrating, but when the Lions have needed him most this year, Cam has typically stood up in more ways than one.
That was again the case last week in the final quarter against Geelong when he finished with a pair of goals, 18 disposals, and five clutch tackles.
Rayner was quiet on this day last year with 11 touches, but now that he’s finding the score sheet and impacting games with his ability to win the footy, there’s a case to be made for him at a good price.