We are down to the penultimate week of the regular season and there is still plenty on the line with five teams still chasing the four top slots and eighth place a remarkable battle between five teams, led by St George Illawarra.
The wooden spoon is still well alive with the Tigers and Eels set to decide it next week regardless of Parramatta’s result against the Dragons.
Meanwhile the Cowboys-Storm and Bulldogs-Sea Eagles are the two all-Top 8 battles and the match of the round takes place Friday evening with the Broncos and Dolphins squaring off in a match that will eliminate one from finals contention.
Melbourne coach Craig Bellamy has rested eight starters for this week but the market has gotten far too carried away with the Storm still fielding an incredibly competitive team.
Stars Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen will play along with the likes of Sua Fa’alogo, Tyran Wishart and Chrsitian Welch.
While the bench looks thin, this is a Storm team more than capable of competing and theyhave not lost by more than seven all year, plus teams off scoring 48 or more from Round 21 onwards cover at 71%.
With the Cowboys covering just three of 13 at home, Melbourne are an excellent bet to cover the huge number.
Tyran Wishart has having a breakout season and it has seen him score 10 tries and Fa’alogo has five tries in his last four matches despite playing just 137 minutes over that streak.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne +12.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne Win ($4.10)
- Tryscorer: Tyran Wishart ($26 First, $3.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Tyran Wishart Try/Sua Fa’alogo Try ($8.10)
Canterbury are a superior outfit to Manly – and they are certainly better coached – but this is a danger game for the Bulldogs.
The Sea Eagles have won nine of the last 10 against the Bulldogs and have covered 10 of 13 as an underdog.
The Bulldogs have covered 15 of 20 and as they have of late, will rely on their defence to get them home, which makes the under a very nice play.
When these teams meet, 11 of the last 15 have gone under the total and Canterbury are a huge under team.
If that was not enough then try these on for size, the under is 16-8 when the Bulldogs are off a win and 6-2 when they are favoured.
Bronson Xerri is flying with seven tries in his last seven games and Tom Trbojevic has 12 tries in his last six games against the Bulldogs.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 45.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury Win/Under 45.5 ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Bronson Xerri ($12 First, $2.25 Anytime)
- SGM: Bronson Xerri Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($5.07)
Penrith have been incredibly disappointing the last three weeks and have no Nathan Cleary for this game, but if they are serious about making it four straight, the foot will be to the floor and the hapless Rabbitohs will be taken to the cleaners.
South Sydney have now lost Cameron Murray and based on the low effort, low IQ performance we saw against Newcastle, they are there for the taking.
This is a nice spot for the Panthers, who have covered 15 of 18 off a loss and 14 of 22 against teams outside the finals and Souths have covered just two of nine off conceding 36 or more.
Luke Garner has three tries in his last five starts, Dylan Edwards has 21 tries in 41 matches and Paul Alamoti has been good since going to Penrith, scoring five tries in 11 matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -17.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Penrith 30+ ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Luke Garner ($15 First, $2.55 Anytime)
- SGM: Luke Garner Try/Dylan Edwards Try/Paul Alamoti Try ($11.87)
Parramatta have one eye on next week when they will have a one-game playoff with the Wests Tigers to avoid the wooden spoon.
St George Illawarra, by contrast, are playing for their lives, knowing that if they beat the Eels and the Raiders they will be playing finals football.
The Dragons are also the better team and are the clear bet, having covered three of four against the Eels and they are a fantastic bounceback team, covering 13 of 19 off losing by 20-plus.
The Dragons have covered three straight when favoured and Parramatta have covered just three of 11 off scoring 24 or more.
The Dragons at the line are the best bet of the week.
Christian Tuipulotu has eight tries in his last eight games and Jaydn Su’A has eight tries this year including four in his last six.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra -2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: St George Illawarra 13+ ($3.20)
- Tryscorer: Christian Tuipulotu ($10 First $1.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Christian Tuipulotu Try/Jaydn Su’A Try ($4.72)
What an epic encounter we have on Saturday evening when rivals the Dolphins and Broncos square off, the loser is done for 2024.
The winner keeps their finals hopes alive with a win and will jump back into the Top 8 if the Dragons lose in the game prior.
The Dolphins have been in freefall with just three wins in their last 12, conceding 37.5ppg their last four.
However this is a handy spot for them to turn it around and if the effort is improved, they can win.
The Dolphins have covered six of eight off a loss of 13-plus while teams off conceding 48-plus cover at 69% this time of year and Brisbane have failed to cover any of their last eight at Suncorp.
The Hammer has 27 tries in 34 games since shifting to the Phins, Jack Bostock has 14 tries this year and Kotoni Staggs has four tries in his last four matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +7.5 ($1.96)
- Next: Dolphins Win ($2.90)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($11 First, $1.88 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Jack Bostock Try/Kotoni Staggs Try ($9.64)
The season is over for the Warriors and it is hard to imagine them finding anything left in the tank after last week, where they bid an emotional farewell to club legend Shaun Johnson but still could not get close to the Bulldogs.
The Sharks have dominated this matchup with 11 wins in the last 15, covering seven of 10 and are also 11-6 against the spread at home off scoring 30-plus.
The Warriors are 4-13 against the spread getting a start of 14 or more while they have covered just 11 of 28 off conceding at least 30, this match looks like it is going one way and one way only.
Briton Nikora is in excellent tryscoring nick with tries in his last three and Braydon Trindall has 10 tries in 15 games this season.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla -14.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Cronulla 30+ ($4.10)
- Tryscorer: Briton Nikora ($15 First, $2.65 Anytime)
- SGM: Briton Nikora Try/Braydon Trindall Try ($6.88)
Newcastle look incredibly short against a Titans team that have been disappointing of late but are arguably a better team.
The Knights are 4-7 in their last 11 with three of those wins coming against the bottom three teams, they should not be so short having covered just three of 10 when favoured by more than eight.
The Titans have been dreadful the last three weeks but soaked Brisbane a month back.
Gold Coast have covered nine of 11 when getting 6.5 or more points while teams off conceding 48-plus cover at 69% in the post-Origin period, the Titans should cover and can even win outright.
AKP is the leading tryscorer in the NRL this year and comes off a hat-trick, he has seven multi-score matches in his last 16 appearances and Sharpe is a livewire with seven tries in nine NRL matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +9.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast Win ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($8.50 First, $1.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira 2+ Tries/Fletcher Sharpe Try ($7.30)
Round 26 finishes up with the Roosters looking to maintain second spot on the ladder while the Raiders are hoping to keep their longshot finals hopes alive.
The Roosters are heavily favoured and rightly so with their attack flying, having scored 34-plus in six of seven.
They have conceded 22 or more though in four of five and Canberra can keep it close, the last eight between these two have been split evenly with the Raiders winning the last three in Sydney.
This is a nice spot for the Raiders with teams off scoring 18 against Penrith going 21-6 against the spread the last four years.
Canberra have also covered six of seven interstate getting a start of 14 or more and the number looks too big.
Hudson Young has nine games this year, good enough for second on the Raiders list and Angus Crichton is airborne, coming off a hat-trick and 11 tries in his last 12 games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra +15.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canberra +7.5 ($2.70)
- Tryscorer: Hudson Young ($19 First, $2.95 Anytime)
- SGM: Hudson Young Try/Angus Crichton Try ($7.58)