The main narrative heading into Round 25 is the race for eighth spot with the Dragons clinging on and the Dolphins, Raiders, Broncos and Knights all trying to force their way in.
Brisbane and Newcastle are the only favourites among the five suggesting the race will become even more compressed after this week if all results go as betting suggests.
The Top 4 race is also super-compelling with the Sharks needing to keep winning to hold off the spirited chase from the Bulldogs.
There is plenty going on in this clash with the Tigers trying to avoid the wooden spoon, the Sea Eagles pushing for a Top 4 berth and Luke Brooks returning to Leichhardt for the first time after switching to Manly this year. This is a matchup the Sea Eagles have dominated in recent years with six straight wins, winning five of those by 14-plus.
The number in this one is too large though, the Tigers have won the last four clashes at Leichhardt and have covered five of six at the venue as an underdog over the last four seasons and are a perfect 3-0 against the spread getting double digits at the ground.
The Tigers get Junior Tupou back while the Sea Eagles have lost Tommy Talau so the plus is a very good play.
Tom Trbojevic has 53 tries in his last 52 games including 18 tries in 16 wins over the last two seasons, Jason Saab has eight tries in his last nine games and Lachlan Galvin has four tries in his last nine games with three of those coming at home.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +15.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Manly 1-12 ($3.35)
- Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($8 First, $1.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Jason Saab Try/Lachlan Galvin Try ($11.41)
New Zealand bids farewell to club icon Shaun Johnson on Friday night, renaming the stadium in his honour and planning a whole heap of fanfare.
It is good practice to bet against teams in that situation though as the market typically overreacts.
Canterbury are still being misunderstood by the market with 14 covers in their last 19 matches and they are a clear bet again.
The Bulldogs have covered seven of nine interstate and eight of nine at night while teams off conceding 10 or fewer cover at 58% over the backend of the season, while the Warriors have covered just three of 14 at home.
The Bulldogs have now conceded fewer tries than any team and the Warriors attack is unlikely to score many.
Bronson Xerri has six tries in his last six games and Matt Burton has nine tries in 20 matches this year.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury -5.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury -5.5/Under 44.5 ($3.70)
- Tryscorer: Bronson Xerri ($11.50 First, $2.15 Anytime)
- SGM: Bronson Xerri Try/Matt Burton Try ($6.19)
This is a must-win for Brisbane and they are heavily favoured in the market, but with Reece Walsh, Ezra Mam and Payne Haas all sidelined, this is very much a danger game.
Maika Sivo is back in a starting role for Parramatta, but teams whose season is over tend to struggle on the road so the Eels cannot be a recommended play but the danger sign should be flashing in neon at Suncorp on Friday.
The over though does look a good bet as this is a huge over spot for the Eels given it has hit in 21 of the last 25 Eels road games, plus it is 38-22 when Parramatta are off conceding 20 or more.
If that wasn’t enough then the over is 29-15 when the Eels are an underdog.
This is a nice over spot for the Broncos too, having gone 9-5 when they play a bottom five team and it is 14-8 when they are favoured at Suncorp by more than a converted try.
Brendan Piakura has three tries in his last 10 matches, Blaize Talagi is airborne with 11 tries in 15 NRL starts.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 51.5 Total Points ($1.90)
- Next: 61+ Points ($3.70)
- Tryscorer: Brendan Piakura ($23 First, $3.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Brendan Piakura Try/Blaize Talagi Try ($9.98)
There are few better bets in the NRL than being with Penrith off a loss.
The Panthers are 15-2 against the spread the last four seasons off a defeat, Penrith just don’t put two bad performances together.
They are also 22-11 against the number off scoring 22 or fewer while they have covered 12 of 16 off conceding 20-plus.
When factoring in that Top 4 teams off a loss post-Round 21 cover at 85%, Penrith shape as one of the better bets this round.
Canberra have covered just three of their last 12 as a home underdog and 14 of their last 39 day matches, chips in Penrith here.
Jarome Luai has three tries in his five games at halfback this year – to go with none in 13 at five-eighth, Casey McLean has three tries in his last four NRL appearances.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -9.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Penrith 19+ ($2.85)
- Tryscorer: Jarome Luai ($15 First, $2.55 Anytime)
- SGM: Jarome Luai Try/Casey McLean Try ($6.82)
The Storm and the Dolphins have met twice previously and on both occasions the Storm won close affairs by margins of six or eight.
This is the first meeting between the two sides at AAMI Park but the line does seem very big considering the talent the Phins have.
Melbourne are unquestionably the better team but this line is very large for a game the desperate Dolphins can win.
The Storm have lost Grant Anderson, who has been one of the form wingers of the competition over the last two months.
The Dolphins have covered 14 of 23 as an underdog of six or more while they have covered seven of 11 off conceding 30-plus and this is a letdown spot for the Storm.
The plus is good value and the Dolphins can win.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 12 tries in 13 appearances this year, the Pap has scored in six straight against teams outside the Top 8, Will Warbrick has 10 tries in 19 games this year and has crossed in both matches against the Dolphins.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +15.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins Win ($5.40)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($12 First, $2.00 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Will Warbrick Try ($6.15)
Newcastle have won nine straight as a road favourite and can make it 10 against a busted South Sydney side that has now added Cody Walker to the injury list.
Souths will now rely on the out-of-form Jack Wighton and Dean Hawkins, who has won just two of his 10 NRL starts.
Souths have a good record against the Knights but that may be turning with Newcastle winning 29-10 the last time these two met and the Knights have covered nine of 11 on the road and nine of 11 off a loss.
The money has poured in for Newcastle and it looks right.
Dylan Lucas has two tries in his last three games playing centre, Jye Gray has five tries in his last seven games and has electric speed.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle -7.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Newcastle 13+ ($2.40)
- Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($15 First, $2.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Jye Gray Try ($7.62)
The Titans have been very poor the last two weeks but they are a team capable of sharp improvement, this line looks far too big.
Say what you will about the Titans, they have enough key position talent to be starting AJ Brimson off the bench, the Titans have covered 10 of 12 getting more than four and have covered eight of 12 getting 12.5 or more, and Gold Coast have also covered eight of nine at home.
The Roosters have won 10 straight against the Titans and the last two wins are by 18-plus but the Roosters are unlikely to view this game with any super seriousness, so I’m happy to take the big line at home.
Victor Radley has four tries in 10 games starting on an edge and is an insane price again, James Tedesco has 12 tries in 13 games against the Titans and AKP has 40 tries in 41 NRL games and is always a must-include.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +16.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast Win ($5.00)
- Tryscorer: Victor Radley ($23 First, $3.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Victor Radley Try/James Tedesco Try/Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try ($13.36)
The time-honoured local derby between the Dragons and Sharks carries plenty of importance with St George Illawarra fighting for an unlikely finals berth and the Sharks clinging onto a Top 4 berth.
The Sharks have won eight straight but this Dragons team has improved significantly under former Cronulla boss Shane Flanagan, but the venue is key here.
The Dragons have covered 15 of 20 at Win Stadium including nine of 12 as an underdog, this Dragons team is tough and the Sharks have been faltering of late.
Christian Tuipulotu has seven tries in his last seven games while Braydon Trindall has scored in five straight.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +3.5 ($1.90)
- Next: St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3.40)
- Tryscorer: Christian Tuipulotu ($12 First, $2.05 Anytime)
- SGM: Christian Tuipulotu Try/Braydon Trindall Try ($6.65)