We are a month out from the regular season wrapping up and we have the biggest game of the season to kick off the round with the Panthers and Storm squaring off as the two top teams on the ladder. The Bulldogs and Dolphins is the second all-Top 8 battle in Round 24 while the Dragons and Titans must win on Sunday afternoon in Wollongong to keep their finals hopes alive.
Penrith look a chips-in job here so it is surprising they have drifted in betting from 5.5-point favourites to 3.5-point elects. Liam Martin and Scott Sorensen are both out for the Panthers but Dylan Edwards and James Fisher-Harris have been named in the extended squad and both look a big chance of playing. The Storm get Eliesa Katoa back but will be haunted by how they have played the last two weeks. The arrogant football that saw them lose to the Dragons and fail to put the Rabbitohs to the sword will be severely punished if it shows up again. The Panthers have won five of the last seven against the Storm with their last four wins all by 18 or more. Penrith also bounce back off poor defensive showings with a 3-0 cover rate off conceding 30-plus points the last four years. They have also covered 10 of 13 at home when favoured by less than 10 points. Nathan Cleary is in excellent tryscoring form with four in his last three. Ryan Papenhuyzen has crossed in four of his last six matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -3.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Penrith 13+ ($3.10)
- Tryscorer: Nathan Cleary ($13 First, $2.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Nathan Cleary Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try ($5.75)
Expect a points-fest when the Sea Eagles host the Warriors to kick off the Friday double header. Manly have averaged 39.5 points in their last four and the Warriors have conceded 30-plus in their last two. The over has hit in 13 of the last 15 clashes between these two. Manly hold attacking form with the over 37-21 when they are off scoring 20-plus while the over is 15-3 when the Warriors are off scoring 28 or more. Betting also suggests the over with the over 10-5 when Manly are double digit favourites and 15-10 when the Warriors are double digit dogs. Tom Trbojevic is in rare company averaging a try a game over the last four seasons. Jason Saab has eight tries in four career matches against the Warriors. Addin Fonua-Blake has 17 tries across the last two seasons and is always value.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 53.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Exact Total Points 61+ ($3.10)
- Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($8 First, $1.48 Anytime)
- SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Jason Saab Try/Addin Fonua-Blake Try ($9.03)
Much like the Sea Eagles and Warriors, the Roosters and Eels have a long history of over games so betting there to be plenty of points though not all necessarily from the favoured Roosters. The Eels have been notable improvers the last three weeks and can push the Chooks as big underdogs. The over is 17-6 when these teams have played since 2008. And this is a huge over spot for the Eels. The over is 31-16 when the Eels are off a loss and 37-22 when they are off conceding 20-plus. With the Roosters topping 34 in four of their last five, there should be points. Victor Radley has scored four tries in nine games since moving to an edge. Blaize Talagi has 10 tries in 12 games and is emerging as an elite tryscorer.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 53.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Sydney Roosters Under 34.5 ($1.90)
- Tryscorer: Victor Radley ($19 First, $2.95 Anytime)
- SGM: Victor Radley Try/Blaize Talagi Try ($8.39)
Canterbury have been outstanding this season and have emerged from a horrid 2023 as a genuine title-contender this year. They are looking tired though and the foolish decision to take a home game to Bundaberg this late in the season could be the straw that gives them an unexpected loss. The Dolphins have been fading badly and need every competition point they can grab hold of so expect them to be up for this in their home state. The Bulldogs have failed to cover any of their last six when favoured by six or more while the Dolphins are 14-8 against the spread as an underdog of a converted try and they have covered eight of 11 off scoring 28-plus. Bostock has 16 tries in 23 NRL games and is a classy finisher. The Hammer has 27 tries in 32 games since joining the Dolphins.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +6.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins Win ($2.55)
- Tryscorer: Jack Bostock ($10.50 First, $2.00 Anytime)
- SGM: Jack Bostock Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($4.00)
To paraphrase ‘Black’ Angus McDonald, the Cowboys are not a strong team, they are a weak team. The loss to the Broncos last week on home turf was nothing short of shameful, all but ending any Top 4 aspirations. Todd Payten has dumped Chad Townsend but could have been far more brutal. Canberra are not a particularly talented team but Ricky Stuart is a coach that both bonds and instils fear and that shows in their numbers on the road and off a poor defensive showing. Canberra have covered five of six interstate and nine straight off allowing 40 or more points. With the Cowboys covering just two of 12 at home, the Raiders look one of the better bets of the week. Savage has crossed in three of his last four. Hudson Young is averaging a try every second game this year.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra +6.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canberra Win ($2.65)
- Tryscorer: Xavier Savage ($11 First. $1.94 Anytime)
- SGM: Xavier Savage Try/Hudson Young Try ($4.50)
The Wests Tigers are an unmitigated disaster and have shown none of the improvement forecast by bringing in Benji Marshall. A third wooden spoon awaits. The Tigers have conceded at least 28 in seven straight with 40-plus being put up on them in five of those. They are the nominal home team this week but it will hardly feel like it with just one win in their last 11 at Campbelltown, covering just three of those. Souths have won 10 of the last 12 meetings with five of the last six being a Souths win by 14 or more. Souths are putting in and are 13-8 against the spread against bottom five teams. The Rabbitohs have too much class and too much strike. Richie Kennar has 10 tries in 17 games since returning to Souths and is well over the odds. Jye Gray has elite speed and that has seen him score four tries in his last six games. Fletcher Myers scored a double in just his second game against Melbourne last week.
Recommended Bets
- Best: South Sydney -6.5 ($1.96)
- Next: South Sydney 41+ Points ($4.10)
- Tryscorer: Richie Kennar ($21 First, $2.95 Anytime)
- SGM: Richie Kennar Try.Jye Gray Try/Fletcher Myers Try ($10.62)
St George Illawarra have endured a tough preparation for this one. Kyle Flanagan was suspended for four weeks for a clear bite to the nose of Stephen Crichton while popular prop Hame Sele was ruled out for the remainder of the year with a concerning heart problem. The Dragons have an excellent record at Wollongong, covering 14 of 19, but this is set up for a Titans ambush. Gold Coast are in a very good spot here with teams off a loss of 40 or more covering at 65%. The Titans have also covered 10 of 11 getting a start of at least a try and four of six interstate. Gold Coast are primed for a big bounce back performance here. Khan-Pereira has not gone two straight games without scoring since Round 4. Sami has five tries in 10 games against the Dragons.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +4.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast Win ($2.40)
- Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Periera ($7.50 First, $1.53 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Phillip Sami Try ($5.48)
Both the Sharks and Knights come off impressive wins but Cronulla are the clear bet in this one. Even with no Trindall or Hynes in the halves, the Sharks can dominate the middle and force the Knights into a chasing situation early that will not suit them at all. Teams off a defensive shutout the last four seasons cover at 64% while the Sharks are 10-6 against the spread as a home favourite. Cronulla also hold form when scoring well, covering 11 of 16 off scoring more than 30. Briton Nikora has four tries in his last seven games and is in great tryscoring form. Kayal Iro has three tries in his last four games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla -8.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Cronulla 13+ ($2.40)
- Tryscorer: Briton Nikora ($17 First, $2.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Briton Nikora Try/Kayal Iro Try ($9.02)