The fight is on in earnest as teams jostle for Top 8 positions with just five weeks remaining. The top two teams on the ladder are both huge road favourites and the third-placed Roosters have a bye but the fourth spot is well up for grabs with the Sharks an outsider to the Titans this week and next three on the ladder favoured to win. The Dolphins and Raiders are on the outside looking in and need a win to keep their finals hopes alive while the Titans continue their unlikely finals charge.
Cronulla were diabolically bad last week and still rolled South Sydney by 14 so Melbourne should really do a number on the Rabbitohs to kick off Round 23. This is a huge bounce back spot for the Storm and few teams hit back as well as Melbourne. Craig Bellamy will have been as hard on the team this week as he has been all season, sparking another finals run. Top 4 teams off a loss cover at 85% in the run home and Melbourne are 28-16 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8. Souths have regressed after a midseason run an they have failed to cover give straight against Top 4 teams. The Pap has 56 tries in 67 starting games. Anderson has five tries in his last four games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -16 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 30+ ($3.70)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($7.25 First, $1.48 Anytime)
- SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Will Warbrick Try/Grant Anderson Try ($4.41)
Gold Coast v Cronulla
The Titans have snuck up as one of the hottest teams in the NRL with five wins in their last six. Over that run they have defended well, conceding 18 or fewer in those five wins. In that run of victories was an impressive win against the Sharks. Cronulla though are good value in this one, even with Braydon Trindall missing through injury. Blayke Brailey has been named at No.7 but suspect Niwhai Puru will play. The Sharks have won nine of their last 10 against the Titans and have been good travellers with seven covers in their last nine. The Titans have been good but are in a rare spot as a favourite. They have covered just two of 12 when favoured. Nikora is an elite hole runner who has three tries in his last six games. Katoa has four tries in his last six matches. Khan-Pereira is the leading tryscorer this season and became the first player in history to surpass 40 career tries inside his first 40 games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla +5.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Cronulla Win ($2.55)
- Tryscorer: Briton Nikora ($23 First, $3.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Briton Nikora Try/Sione Katoa Try/Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try ($10.29)
Parramatta enjoyed a rare glimmer of joy last week when they trounced the Warriors in New Zealand but the Panthers are a different prospect and it is hard to see them going back-to-back. The Eels usually lift for this one but look lambs to the slaughter. The Panthers are warming up nicely for a tilt at four straight premierships and the talent differential in this one is immense. The Panthers are 22-10 against the spread off scoring 22 or ewer while they have covered 14 of 20 against teams outside the Top 8. Parramatta have covered just four of 14 off a win and three of 19 at night. This could get very messy. Nathan Cleary has four tries in his last two matches. Casey McLean has scored in his last two.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -16.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Penrith 30+ ($3.60)
- Tryscorer: Nathan Cleary ($13 First, $2.30 Anytime)
- SGM: Penrith Win/Nathan Cleary Try/Casey McLean Try ($5.78)
Canberra host Manly on Saturday afternoon in a clash that will have major ramifications for the finals. It is a touch surprising that the Raiders are home underdogs as they are a different team with Jamal Fogarty in the No.7. Manly are likely the better team but they have not been wonderful away from Brookvale and they are 11-15 against the spread when favoured on the road. The top play in this one is the over. The last three between these two sides have hit 50 points and the Sea Eagles are in a huge over spot. The over is 23-11 when Manly play teams outside the Top 8 while it is 36-21 when the Sea Eagles are off scoring 20-plus. Young is an underrated tryscorer with 32 tries in 66 games across the last three years. Tom Trbojevic has failed to score in consecutive games just once this season and not since Round 2. Saab has seven tries in his last seven games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 49.5 ($1.90)
- Next: 61+ Total Points ($4.50)
- Tryscorer: Hudson Young ($14 First, $2.40 Anytime)
- SGM: Hudson Young Try/Tom Trbojevic Try/Jason Saab Try ($8.72)
The biggest rivalry in Queensland has been decidedly to Brisbane’s advantage of late. The Broncos have won the last three and have covered eight of the last 11. There is something decidedly off about the Broncos this year though and with their season on the line the last two weeks, the club has conceded more than 40 to the Bulldogs and the Titans. They meet a far more dangerous attacking side this week in the Cowboys and this is a nice spot for Todd Payten’s men. They are 13-7 against the spread at home off a win while teams off scoring 48 or more cover at 62% the last four seasons. Brisbane have lost Payne Haas and Ezra Mam and look in big trouble this week. The Broncos left edge defence has been a debacle of late so loading up on Cowboys right edge players including leading tryscorers Jeremiah Nanai and Kyle Feldt.
Recommended Bets
- Best: North Queensland -7.5 ($1.85)
- Next: North Queensland Exact Total Points 41+ ($4.00)
- Tryscorer: Jeremiah Nanai ($11.50 First, $1.98 Anytime)
- SGM: Jeremiah Nanai Try/Kyle Feldt Try/Viliami Vailea Try ($9.12)
Saturday night’s clash between the Dragons and the Bulldogs has an importance few would have imagined at the start of the season but remarkably both teams sit inside the Top 8 with the Bulldogs a very real chance of finishing inside the Top 4. The Bulldogs have been wildly underestimated by the market this year with 12 covers in their last 17. As the second best defensive side, they are deserving of favouritism too. The Dragons have covered just nine of 24 off a win while the Bulldogs have covered seven of eight at night. Preston is an elite edge running forward who has five tries in 12 games this season. Burton is flying this season with eight four-pointers.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury -3.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury 13+ ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Jacob Preston ($17 First, $2.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Jacob Preston Try/Matt Burton Try ($7.97)
The Dolphins and Warriors open up Sunday action and it is the hardest match of the week to bet with the Dolphins woefully out of form and the Warriors all but done for the season. The Dolphins have never covered a line bigger than six in their history, failing on their only four attempts, but the Warriors have a poor record in Australia. The best bet looks the under with the under 4-0 when the Dolphins are favoured by at least 6.5 and the under 27-16 when playing a team outside the Top 8. The Hammer is scoring at over a try a game this year while Bostock and DWZ are both attacking well and defending poorly making them nice bets.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 51.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Tribet 1-6: Either Team Wins By Less Than 6.5 ($3.15)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($7.25 First, $1.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Jack Bostock Try/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try ($4.94)
The Tigers have to be dusted as they are currently in the throes of a six-game streak where they have conceded 40-plus and considering where they are now at as a club, even the Knights look a good bet laying just 10.5. Newcastle are an attacking abomination but they have been putting in and this looks a breakout game for them. Newcastle have won and covered five straight against the Tigers and they have a very good record playing afternoon football, covering 15 of 18 day games. With Justin Olam out for the Tigers, confidence is high on the Knights winning big. Tyson Frizell has four tries this year including two in his last three. Dylan Lucas has five tries in his last 14 games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle -10.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Newcastle To Win Both Halves ($2.20)
- Tryscorer: Tyson Frizell ($23 First, $3.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Tyson Frizell Try/Dylan Lucas Try ($8.05)