Things haven’t quite played out like Billy Slater or Michael Maguire would have expected but we’ve ended up at the right place anyway; a State of Origin decider at Suncorp Stadium this Wednesday night.
‘Madge’ has had to overcome more curve balls than most in his first series in charge while Billy Slater’s impeccable Origin coaching record is suddenly under threat following a first-half blowout in Game II.
With everything to play for tomorrow night, the Suncorp stage is set for another Origin classic. Let’s take a look at a few deciding factors for each state heading into Game III.
NSW Blues Deciding Factors
Every time Daly Cherry-Evans found the grass with an early yardage kick in Game 2, the alarm bells started ringing.
He’s made an Origin career out of changing momentum with his boot and he threatened to trap NSW in a corner more than once in Melbourne a few weeks ago.
On every occasion however, one of Dylan Edwards, Zac Lomax or Brian To’o produced a dominant carry on play one or two to immediately put NSW back on the front foot.
Blues forwards like Angus Crichton (18 runs, 174m), Cam Murray (16 runs, 120m) and Payne Haas (19 runs, 186m) were able to play on the back of those exit carries and pour into Maroons territory thanks to the early work of NSW’s back three.
Murray’s involvements in particular were the difference in a few exit sets from Game 2, his ability to get in between defenders, invite extra bodies in towards the ruck and still generate a quick play-the-ball was imperative to the Blues dominance in yardage and profiles as a deciding factor again for NSW in the grind.
It’s been a theme throughout the series so far; the Blues playing very conservatively (yet effectively) out of yardage, using the width of Reece Robson’s service to target QLD’s halves on the edges – particularly the spaces around Cherry-Evans.
Some of the defensive numbers from Game 2 confirm this; QLD’s right edge of Jeremiah Nanai, Cherry-Evans and Valentine Holmes combined for a ridiculous 103 tackles in Melbourne.
We knew the Blues would favour a left-edge attack featuring Latrell Mitchell and they cashed in to the tune of three well-worked tries, even without Mitchell there this week, the spaces around Cherry-Evans and Dane Gagai – a new face in the centres – will surely be a target for the Blues again.
Gagai’s Origin career speaks for itself but expect Jarome Luai, Bradman Best and Crichton to test his lateral movement and decision making under pressure in this one.
The kicking game of Mitchell Moses and the productivity of NSW’s back five should create more than enough attacking opportunities for the Blues in good-ball.
Discipline and composure in the pressure-cooker that is Suncorp Stadium now becomes NSW’s biggest test.
QLD Maroons Deciding Factors
Much was said about the influence of Latrell Mitchell in his return for the NSW Blues in Game 2, in the same vein, I can’t understand how little is being said about Selwyn Cobbo’s return for QLD tomorrow night.
He scored 20 tries in 24 games on the wing for Brisbane last year and clocked 167 running metres (with nine tackle busts) while assisting two linebreaks for the Maroons in Game 1 earlier this series, his ability to change momentum with a single kick return can offset the influence of Mitchell Moses’ long-kicking game tomorrow night.
In attack, the inclusion of Kalyn Ponga on QLD’s bench is an ominous one for Blues fans. It’s a throwback to the days when Michael Morgan played off the bench as a second-fullback next to Jonathon Thurston on the left edge while Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk linked up on the right.
I’m expecting a similar look from the Maroons on Wednesday night; Tom Dearden and Ponga down Ponga’s preferred left edge while Reece Walsh and Daly Cherry-Evans combine on the right.
The addition of Kurt Capewell at left-four lends itself to this approach; he’s a genuine pass option in the backrow who can distribute with Dearden, Ponga and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow around him, I’m tipping QLD to manufacture some scoring opportunities down their left edge in this one.
The Maroons have had some joy down short sides so far this series and that too should continue tomorrow night.
Billy Slater’s attention to detail is legendary and he’s successfully punished the spaces around Stephen Crichton on short sides twice already (Ben Hunt in Game 1, Tabuai-Fidow in Game 2).
Given the surplus of speed (Hammer, Holmes) and creativity (Dearden, Ponga, Capewell) down QLD’s left edge, I’m expecting short side raids to be a key feature of the Maroons attack in Game 3.
Suggested Bets
I’m sticking with my New South Wales Blues to clinch a tight one here.
They’ve had the advantage through the middle in both games this series and Mitch Moses is one of the few kickers in the NRL who can go boot-to-boot with Daly Cherry-Evans.
Margin: NSW 1-12
As mentioned above, I’m looking for both NSW and QLD to fire most of their attack down their respective left edges.
The Blues will try to isolate Dane Gagai in the centres like Moses did in clubland a few weeks back while the Maroons have a variety of different potential looks through Dearden, Ponga and The Hammer – particularly down short sides.
Anytime Try Scorer Tips: Dylan Edwards ($3), Mitch Moses ($5.5) | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($2.30), Tom Dearden ($5.25)
Fogs and I discussed a few possible player awards on the poddy this week but for those who missed it, I’ve picked out the involvements of Cameron Murray and Payne Haas (who were immense in Game 2) as key contributors for the Blues in what profiles as an old-school, throwback Origin grind.
For Queensland, the work Pat Carrigan gets through on both sides of the ball can be the difference in a tight one while Tom Dearden has potential to create a few highlight reel moments in attack.
Man of the Match: Cam Murray ($23), Payne Haas ($17) | Tom Dearden ($34), Pat Carrigan ($11)
Doubling down with the Wally Lewis Medal for Player of the Series, I think Haas and Zac Lomax have been two of the Blues best so far and offer great value outside favourites Angus Crichton and Moses, while Tabuai-Fidow and Carrigan are well placed to complete a starring series performance for QLD.
Wally Lewis Medal: Payne Haas ($13), Zac Lomax ($13) | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($11), Pat Carrigan ($13)