The 2024 State of Origin series all comes down to 80 minutes in the cauldron of Suncorp Stadium, an epic finale to a wild series that saw the Maroons humiliate an unprepared Blues team in the opener before the roles were well and truly reversed in game two in Melbourne. The Maroons have history on their team but with injuries and form working against them, will have to find to secure yet another series.
Queensland v New South Wales
Benjamin Franklin famously declared that there are two certainties in life: death and taxes. We can add a third: Queensland winning an Origin decider if it is played at Suncorp Stadium. The Blues have won only two deciders at Lang Park and none since 1994. Some very good Blues teams – teams over 30 years and multiple generations – have tried and failed to secure the Origin shield in Brisbane. They will need to be absolutely historic.
Both teams have made changes coming into the key decider.
Billy Slater has made three changes to the team that was whipped senseless in Melbourne. Injured three-quarters Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi have been replaced by recalled duo Selwyn Cobbo and Dane Gagai. Jaydn Su’A has been dropped but not for David Fifita as all expected but for Kalyn Ponga, with Kurt Capewell promoted to the starting side. Capewell and Jeremiah Nanai make for an incredibly vulnerable pair of edges.
The only change for the Blues has been forced with Bradman Best replacing the injured Latrell Mitchell.
Had Billy Slater picked Fifita, they would have looked nearly good things. They still look the play but their vulnerability on the edges does cause concern.
The numbers are just so incredibly positive for the Maroons though.
Queensland are 14-3 at Suncorp since 2010. Their last two wins at the ground have been by double digits while they are 7-2 in live matches since 2014.
Game 3 situations also push for Queensland. The home team has won the last nine Game 3s. The Game 2 loser has won eight of the last 10 final games. Queensland is 10-4 in the last 14 Game 3s.
Deciders are just as good. The Maroons have won seven of the last eight deciders and the home team has won seven of the last eight deciders.
Teams off a double digit loss have won seven of the last 10 Origins in the spot.
Nearly every historical stat pushes for a comfortable Queensland win and they have to be the bet.
While we have seen two games sail over, a tough and lower-scoring decider looks to be on the cards. Ashley Klein has refereed seven straight that have gone north of 34 but with a total of 41.5, the under looks a good play. Only one game three has gone north of 38 since 2015. The last eight at Suncorp have gone 38 or fewer.
Halfbacks have won the first two Man of the Match awards so happy to work around them in the decider. Patrick Carrigan has had an outstanding series and puts together the numbers to be right in the mix if the Maroons do win.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has nine tries in six Origin appearances, scoring in every single one. He has to be the anchor for everything while he is great value at black odds to score. Jeremiah Nanai has scored in two of his last four Origin matches and is used heavily when the Maroons are on the attack.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Queensland -1.5 ($1.90)
- Best Total: Under 41.5 ($1.98)
- Man of the Match: Patrick Carrigan ($12.00)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($10.50 First, $2.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Jeremiah Nanai Try ($7.75)