With State of Origin in the rearview mirror and all attention focused on the run to the finals, there are plenty of games that will have a major impact on the makeup of the Top 8.
The Roosters and Sea Eagles on Saturday night is a 4th v 5th battle while the Cowboys-Sharks earlier that day is also an all-Top 8 clash.
The Bulldogs and Dolphins are battling to stay in this week against the Broncos and Titans respectively.
While the Dragons, Broncos, Raiders and Bunnies all need to keep winning to push their way in with Round 21 wrapping up with the Rabbitohs and the Raiders battling it out in the nation’s capital.
The Warriors look massive unders this week considering how many outs they have.
The backline is stretched very thin and the loss of leading forward Tohu Harris for the remainder of the season is a big blow.
The Warriors have managed just a single win in their last five and on the five occasions they have been a double digit favourite since 2021, they have failed to cover.
Benji Marshall’s team have been abhorrent defensively of late, conceding 40-plus in four straight and in six of their last eight.
That has let to a fed-up Marshall making some positive team changes, including sending John Bateman to the Super League and leaving an “injured” David Klemmer out.
Starford To’a and Isaiah Papalii return. Teams off conceding 42 or more in the post-Origin period cover at 59% so happy to put some perhaps unwarranted faith in the Tigers, who can win this and get off the bottom.
Lachie Galvin is in hot tryscoring form with four tries in his last five games, Bula has also been in hot form with four tries in his last eight appearances.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +13.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Wests Tigers Win ($3.90)
- Tryscorer: Lachlan Galvin ($29 First, $4.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Lachlan Galvin Try/Jahream Bula Try ($13.77)
This looks like it is a very big chance of getting ugly, real ugly.
The first-placed Storm are potentially getting star Cameron Munster back for this clash while the 16th-placed Eels have lost star halfback Mitchell Moses for the remainder of 2024.
Melbourne has put scores of 46 and 48 on Parra in their last two and we are looking at something similar on Friday night.
The Storm are having no struggles in attack, scoring with four scores north of 30 in the last six as well as posting 24-plus against title second favourites the Roosters.
Not to mention Craig Bellamy’s men are 27-15 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8 while they are 10-6 against the number off conceding eight or fewer.
The Eels have failed to cover their last three as a home underdog and it is hard to overlook Trent Barrett’s recent coaching record of 13 wins from his last 64 games.
Papenhuyzen has nine tries in 11 games this season, Anderson has three tries in his last two starts on the wing and Katoa is enjoying his best tryscoring season with five tries in his last nine games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -17.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 51+ ($19.00)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($9 First, $1.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Grant Anderson Try/Eliesa Katoa Try ($7.20)
The Bulldogs have been remarkably tough this year and given how well they have defended, the line of 9.5 looks very big.
Canterbury sit well above Brisbane on the ladder, they are conceding nearly five points per game fewer and are scoring just 2.59 points per game less.
Canterbury may have struggled to win on the road but they have covered five of their last seven interstate and they have covered 11 of 15 interstate.
The Broncos are getting plenty of troops back and virtually need to win out while they do have an outstanding record against the Bulldogs with five straight wins and covers but this line is far too big.
Xerri has scored in his last two with five tries in his last 10 games.
Deine Mariner has 16 tries in 16 games this season and hits the Bulldogs right side that has conceded nearly 60% of their tries against.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury +9.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury Win ($3.25)
- Tryscorer: Bronson Xerri ($19 First, $3.25 Anytime)
- SGM: Bronson Xerri Try/Deine Mariner Try ($7.33)
Cronulla were utterly ruthless before their bye when they put 58 points on the hapless Wests Tigers and that puts them in good stead this week.
The Sharks have lost Will Kennedy this week and are already without Nicho Hynes but look an outstanding bet to get the two points against the inconsistent Cowboys.
Cronulla have dominated this matchup with 15 wins in the last 18 with the last three wins all by 20 or more points, covering in eight of the last nine clashes.
Teams off scoring 48-plus the game prior also cover at 71% from Round 21 to the end of the season across the last five seasons.
With the Cowboys have covered just one of 10 home games, Cronulla look a lovely play as an outsider.
Braydon Trindall has scored in three straight and has six tries in his last seven appearances, Sione Katoa is in scintillating tryscoring form with seven tries in his last five games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Cronulla 13+ ($4.75)
- Tryscorer: Braydon Trindall ($21 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Braydon Trindall Try/Sione Katoa Try ($7.05)
There are few better bets over the run home in a season than betting a Top 4 team off a loss.
Top 4 teams off a loss cover at 85% in the post-Origin period and that has the Roosters absolutely primed here for a comfortable win.
Teams off scoring 10 or fewer in the run home period cover at 64% and the Roosters grow a leg at Allianz with seven covers in the last 10 and they have won seven of the last 11 against the Sea Eagles.
With Manly covering just three of nine away from Brookvale, confidence is sky high that the Chooks will win and win big.
Victor Radley has three tries in seven starts since moving to an edge and Sitili Tupouniua has scored in two of his four matches against Manly.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Sydney Roosters -6.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Sydney Roosters 19+ ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Victor Radley ($23 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Victor Radley Try/Sitili Tupouniua Try ($14.76)
Penrith are cruising as they head for a fifth straight Grand Final and a fourth straight premiership but that does not necessarily result in huge wins.
The Panthers sit around 50% when favoured by double digits and that drops on the road.
This is a game the Dragons should really be turning up for with a finals berth on the line and they have played the Panthers well of late with five straight covers.
St George Illawara play their best football at Wollongong too with 14 covers in 18 appearances across the last four seasons, but the line for this is is too big.
Tuipulotu has been in outstanding tryscoring form with five in his last three matches. Liddle has three tries in his last four matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +11.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Tribet 1-6 Either Team To Win By Under 6.5 Points ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Christian Tuipulotu ($12.50 First, $2.15 Anytime)
- SGM: Christian Tuipulotu Try/Jacob Liddle Try ($14.01)
The Titans are one of the most underrated teams and the betting in this one is way off, the gulf between the Dolphins and Titans is certainly not six points.
The Dolphins have covered just one of their last six when favoured while the Titans have covered nine of their last 10 getting a start of at least a try.
Suncorp is a key factor here too with the Titans 4-1 against the spread at the ground while the Dolphins are 6-9 against the number.
Teams off scoring 10 or fewer cover at a clip of 64% over the backend of the season so the Titans should cover and can win this off the stick.
There are three great tryscorers and all worth combining in the SGM, Khan-Pereira leads the NRL in scoring and has been a regular first tryscorer, the Hammer has 11 tries in nine games this year and Bostock has 13 tries in 16 games in 2024.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +6 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast Win ($2.65)
- Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($8.50 First, $1.57 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Jack Bostock Try ($4.36)
There projects to be plenty of points when the Raiders and Rabbitohs bring Round 21 to a close.
These two have a long history of high scoring games with 16 of 21 going over the number since 2008.
The over is 12-4 when the Raiders play at night but it is Souths that should drive this total up.
The over has hit in six straight interstate games for the Bunnies while it is 22-6 when Souths are off conceding 26 or more points.
With plenty of attacking weapons on both teams and two suspect defences, expect this one to sail over the number.
Gagai has nine tries in 10 games as a late-blooming top grader, Young has nine tries this year and is the leading Raiders tryscorer and Walker has five tries in his six games since shifting to halfback.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 50.5 ($1.90)
- Next: 61+ Total Points ($3.40)
- Tryscorer: Jacob Gagai ($10.50 First, $1.85 Anytime)
- SGM: Jacob Gagai Try/Hudson Young Try/Cody Walker Try ($12.99)