Round 20 brings to an end the Origin impacted rounds with the run home about to start in earnest.
Nathan Cleary returns to a Penrith side that has already decided to rest Dylan Edwards and Isaah Yeo while others may be given the week off. Cleary isn’t the only big name returning with Jamal Fogarty back for Canberra after a long layoff and Joseph Suaalii back after his Origin suspension.
The highlight of the week is the Top 4 clash between the Storm and the Roosters at AAMI Park in a matchup we could see again in September.
The opening match of the week is arguably the hardest game of the week to get a grip on. The Warriors have won the last three against the Raiders but Canberra have some key troops returning, none more important than halfback Jamal Fogarty. The Raiders were 4-3 before Fogarty went down injured. New Zealand, meanwhile, have lost plenty of starters. There is a lean the Raiders here but the top play is the over. The over has hit in the last three between these two and is 12-3 when the Raiders play at night. The over is 8-2 when the Warriors are off conceding 13 or fewer. Fancy this could be an open affair between two teams who need to open the shoulders. Elliott Whitehead rarely gets kudos as a value tryscorer but he has four tries in nine games this season. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been shifted to the wing and he has 19 tries in 60 starts on a flank at NRL level.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 47.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canberra -1.5/Over 47.5 ($3.75)
- Tryscorer: Elliott Whitehead ($23 First, $3.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Elliott Whitehead Try/Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Try ($8.32)
No team responds like an embarrassed team responds and that is exactly what we got from the Tigers last week against Cronulla, a humiliating effort where the Sharks walked in 58 points in a canter. This is a huge bounceback spot for them. Teams off conceding 46-plus have covered 14 of 17 across the last four seasons while sides off a loss of 40 or more cover at 60% over the last 16 seasons. The Tigers have been in this spot more than any other too and they have covered four of five since 2021. They Tigers are also 11-5 against the spread as a double digit underdog off conceding 30-plus. Api Koroisau looks highly unlikely but the Bunnies are without Latrell Mitchell, their goalkicking is abhorrent and they have covered just two of 14 when favoured. The Tigers are a tremendous bet. Jahream Bula has tries in two of his last four and looks among the most likely types from the Tigers. Richie Kennar has 17 tries in 23 games as a Rabbitoh.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +11.5 ($1.96)
- Next: Wests Tigers Win ($3.80)
- Tryscorer: Jahream Bula ($17 First, $2.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Jahream Bula/Richie Kennar Try ($7.74)
Brisbane have lost six straight, are in complete disarray up front, they are missing their top two choice halves and have four players needing to back up from Origin yet are ridiculously road favourites against the Knights. Newcastle are far from the best team in the competition but like Brisbane they are just hanging in the race and typically perform well at home. The Knights have covered nine of 14 at home including four straight at home off a loss. They are also far more likely to have all their Origin contingent backup. Brisbane have failed to cover five straight off a loss and are 4-10 against the number interstate off a defeat. Betting in this one is way off. Bradman Best has seven tries in 14 games and gets a great matchup against a defensively frail Broncos right-edge. Deine Mariner has 14 tries in 15 games this year – and 14 in 13 on the wing, which he is likely to return to.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle +3.5 ($1.96)
- Next: Newcastle 1-12 ($3.45)
- Tryscorer: Bradman Best ($14 First, $2.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Bradman Best Try/Deine Mariner Try ($5.60)
Melbourne sit atop the premiership but are being shown little respect in their clash at AAMI Park with the Roosters. The Storm are a home underdog for just the fourth time in the last four years and they have covered two of the previous three. They have a remarkable record against the Roosters too with nine wins in the last 10 clashes including the last four. They have covered eight of the last 10. The Storm typically bounce back off a bad defensive showing and the bye will have seen them work on nothing but defence. The Storm have covered 10 of 14 off conceding 28-plus. The Roosters have four players needing to back up from Origin and they cover at just 41% off a win. Ryan Papenhuyzen scores at just under one per game and has five tries in his last four games. Jahrome Hughes has six tries in his last nine games against the Roosters. Dom Young has crossed for at least one try in eight of his last nine matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne +3.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 1-12 ($3.35)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($10 First, $1.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/ Jahrome Hughes Try/Dom Young Try ($12.71)
The Dolphins look an outstanding bet to not only cover the big start against Penrith but potentially roll them. The three-time defending premiers get star halfback Nathan Cleary back but have left Origin players Dylan Edwards and Isaah Yeo out of the side while Liam Martin, Brian To’o and Jahrome Luai could all be rested in pursuit of greater goals. The Dolphins have two Origin players but with a need to keep winning, both Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Felise Kaufusi are likely to play. The Dolphins are in a nice spot here. They are 11-6 against the spread getting eight or more points and 11-6 against the number off conceding 26 points. They have also covered three of four interstate matches. Penrith are just a 50% cover team when laying two converted tries and without many of their stars, this number looks too big. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has nine tries in eight games at club level this year. Max Plath has four tries in 16 NRL games and has a nice tryscoring record in the Q-Cup so is big overs this week.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +12.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins Win ($4.50)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($12.50 First, $2.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Max Plath Try ($17.20)
Manly have found a little bit of rhythm the last fortnight with a road win over the Cowboys and a domination of an undermanned Knights team at Brookvale but they look far too short this week. Gold Coast are typically the most undervalued team in the NRL and that has certainly been the case of late. They have covered seven straight getting more than a converted try while they are 19-10 against the spread getting eight or more. Off a good defensive performance where they conceded 16 or fewer, the Titans have covered four of six. With a good record against the Sea Eagles, winning four of the last five at Brookvale, Gold Coast are an excellent bet. Alofiana Khan-Pereira is the leading tryscorer this season. Phil Sami has four tries in his last six games. Tom Trbojevic has 48 tries in 48 games across the last four seasons. Jason Saab has six tries in seven games against the Gold Coast.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +7.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast ($2.85)
- Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($9 First, $1.65 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Phil Sami Try/Tom Trbojevic Try/Jason Saab Try ($16.12)
The final match of Round 20 sees the Cowboys host the Bulldogs in a match that will have major implications on the makeup of the finals with both of these teams in the bottom half of the Top 8. Canterbury do present as a touch of value as the second best defensive side against a team that has covered just one of their last nine home games. The Cowboys are also at risk of missing some of their best with five players on Origin duty. The best bet in this one though is the under. Seven of the last eight meetings between these two have finished on 42 or fewer with six of those going under. The under is 9-2 when Canterbury are an underdog while the under is 14-8 when the Cowboys are a small home favourite. With so much on the line, expect solid defensive efforts from both sides. Matt Burton has eight tries this year and is a major running threat in every game. Kyle Feldt has eight tries in his last eight games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 46.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury +1.5/Under 46.5 ($3.45)
- Tryscorer: Matt Burton ($17 First, $2.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Matt Burton Try/Kyle Feldt Try ($5.16)