The Origin period is drawing to an end and we have the final week of just five NRL matches on the schedule. All are interesting, important affairs with the Sharks and Dolphins trying to fight for a Top 4 spot when they meet the Tigers and Rabbitohs respectively while the Broncos-Dragons clash on Saturday night and Sea Eagles-Knights matchup on Sunday will have major Top 8 ramifications.
South Sydney are surprisingly big odds in this one. Latrell Mitchell has been sidelined with injury and Cameron Murray is on Origin duty but the Bunnies remain a formidable outfit with Cook, Wighton, Walker and Koloamatangi all playing and playing well. The Dolphins have started slipping a little of late and are not only without Origin players Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Felise Kaufusi but key hooker Jeremy Marshall-King. Missing the two most critical spine players is a huge hurdle for the Dolphins to overcome. Souths have covered 22 of 34 interstate and having conceded 16 or fewer in their last four, they look very good bets this week. Kennar has played his best football at Souths, scoring 17 tries in 21 games for the cardinal and myrtle. Jye Gray is a speed demon who comes into this off scoring his first NRL try.
Recommended Bets
- Best: South Sydney +3.5 ($1.90)
- Next: South Sydney 13+ ($5.00
- Tryscorer: Richie Kennar ($21 First, $3.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Richie Kennar Try/Jye Gray Try ($9.50)
Cronulla have lost star halfback Nicho Hynes for at least six weeks and potentially longer but while they will want him back on deck soon, his absence may settle a team on the slide over the last month. The Sharks have very much reflected Hynes’ loss of confidence so getting it done without him could work as a positive for Cronulla. This is a nice spot for the Sharks too. They will not be taking the Tigers easy after being flogged by them earlier in the season. The Sharks are 12-5 against the spread against bottom four teams. The Tigers have covered just four of 13 in NSW. Bottom four teams cover at just 42% off a loss. Cronulla are the play here to win and win big. Trindall is an underrated tryscorer with seven tries in 11 games this season. Briton Nikora is back in peak tryscoring form with two tries in his last three weeks.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla -7.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Cronulla 13+ ($2.50)
- Tryscorer: Braydon Trindall ($17 First, $3.05 Anytime)
- SGM: Braydon Trindall Try/Briton Nikora Try ($10.42)
Everything about this game screams a big Titans win. Gold Coast will potentially get a huge upgrade to their team. Jayden Campbell has been named to play five-eighth. Phillip Sami has been named on the bench. AJ Brimson has been named in the reserves. All potentially return to a team that put 66 on the Warriors two starts back and then won on the road against the Sharks. With David Fifita spurned again from Origin, he is expected to have a monster game. The Eels are without key half Mitchell Moses and have lost Junior Paulo to injury. Trent Barrett is 13-50 over the last four years and the Eels have covered just one of 12 road games. This match could get very ugly if the Titans are on. Alofiana Khan-Pereira has a career strike rate of nearly one a game and now matches up with average-paced rookie Jake Tago. He could score three. Jojo Fifita has three tries in his last five games. David Fifita has four tries in his nine games against the Eels.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast -7.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast 30+ ($6.75)
- Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($7.75 First, $1.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Jojo Fifita Try/David Fifita Try ($8.34)
The money has started to roll in for St George Illawarra throughout the week and it is easy to understand why considering the shape of the Broncos team right now. Brisbane have lost five straight. They are missing four players to Origin. They are down to their third-string halfback. The pack is decimated. Tristan Sailor has struggled at fullback when called upon. They have covered just one of six at Suncorp. The Dragons are missing stars Ben Hunt and Zac Lomax but Mikaele Ravalawa is an adequate replacement and the Dragons are a strong bounceback team, covering 14 of 21 off a loss of 20 or more. Ravalawa has four tries in five games against the Broncos and does his best on the right, where he has played precious little this year. Brendan Piakura has scored twice in his last six games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +6 ($1.90)
- Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.60)
- Tryscorer: Mikaele Ravalawa ($9.50 First, $1.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Mikaele Ravalawa Try/Brendan Piakura Try ($7.75)
Betting in the final round of the week is quite astonishing with Manly incredibly short. The Sea Eagles are blessed to have Tom Trbojevic back and he is mercifully playing in the fullback position this week but the loss of Daly Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic and Tolutau Koula is significant. The last time Cherry-Evans was missing, Manly were held to zero by South Sydney on the back of a very poor game plan from Anthony Seibold. Playing young prospect Jamie Humphreys is a positive but there are concerns with unlocking the backline. The Knights also have three out with Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Dane Gagai all out. They are much better off though. Newcastle play a conservative game plan. Fletcher Sharpe is a great in at fullback. The Knights have a great cover record without Ponga. With Newcastle covering 10 of 13 on the road and six straight after being held to 16 or fewer, they are an outstanding bet this week. Dylan Lucas has scored two tries in two starts in the second row. Tom Trbojevic has 47 tries in 47 games across the last four years.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle +8.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Newcastle Win ($2.95)
- Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($17 First, $3.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($5.13)