Round 18 sees some huge names return this week with Tom Trbojevic and Kalyn Ponga returning from extended injury layoffs, along with a host of Origin stars that were rested by the Panthers, Broncos and Cowboys last week following the brutal Origin clash in Melbourne.
Friday night is the highlight with a rematch of last year’s Grand Final between the Panthers and Broncos from Suncorp while we have a compelling clash that will have huge finals ramifications on Saturday night when the Cowboys and Sea Eagles.
Find our tips and best bets for every game below!
South Sydney are not being shown nearly the respect they should be in this one.
The Bunnies have won four straight and conceded just a total of 24 points in their last three games.
In their last start they shut Manly out and have looked a different team with Latrell at fullback, a Wighton/Walker halves combination and Keaon Koloamatangi in the middle.
The Eels remain coached by Trent Barrett (13-49 in his last four seasons), there is disruption with the new coaching hire likely to have been decided but no publicised and the club has won just one of its last nine, conceding 33.56 points per game over that run.
Teams off a defensive shutout cover at 68% and Souths have dominated this matchup with seven wins/covers in the last eight meetings that includes shutting Parramatta out twice at CommBank.
Koloamatangi has been super since moving to the middle, scoring four tries in four games, Jacob Gagai matches up on debutant Jake Tago and that is a positive situation for him while Richie Kennar has scored in three of his five appearances this year.
Best: South Sydney -3.5 ($1.90)
Next: South Sydney 13+ ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Keaon Koloamatangi ($21 First, $3.10 Anytime)
SGM: Keaon Koloamatangi Try/Jacob Gagai Try/Richie Kennar Try ($20.74)
Cronulla face a tough period now with star Nicho Hynes seemingly struggling significantly with confidence after being dropped from the Blues.
He has subsequently missed a shot at goal on fulltime to level the score v the Dolphins and then missed a sitter of a field goal to beat the Bulldogs.
It is hard to bet a team at such short odds and laying such a big number when they are not strictly at home – this one is being played in Coffs Harbour – and their star playmaker is down on confidence.
The Titans are in a good spot here having rolled the Warriors 66-6 before a bye.
Underdogs off scoring 56-plus cover at 73% while the Titans have covered six straight getting a start of 6.5 or more, so with AJ Brimson back, the Titans look a super bet.
Khan-Pereira has 34 tries in 34 NRL games and Brimson has 41 tries in 99 games playing in the spine.
Best: Gold Coast +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Gold Coast Win ($2.90)
Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($9.50 First, $1.80 Anytime)
SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/AJ Brimson Try ($5.58)
There are few better bets in the NRL than being with Penrith off a loss.
The Panthers have covered 16 of 20 off a defeat and seven of nine off a double digit loss.
Penrith might absorb losses during a season but they rarely let them compound.
While both teams get their Origin contingents back, it is Penrith who get two spine players back and that should fix the disjointed attack we saw against the Cowboys.
The Panthers have covered 10 of 14 off scoring 12 or fewer.
Brisbane will be thrilled to have Walsh, Haas and Carrigan back in the lineup for this Grand Final rematch but with only one win in the last eight clashes with Penrith and a losing streak of four straight at Suncorp against the Panthers, Penrith are the play.
Dylan Edwards has scored in his last three and seven of his last nine and Mam scored a hattrick when the Broncos met the Panthers in last year’s decider.
Best: Penrith -4.5 ($1.90)
Next: HT/FT Brisbane/Penrith ($7.50)
Tryscorer: Dylan Edwards ($13 First, $2.55 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Edwards Try/Ezra Mam Try ($6.99)
Canterbury are up to fifth on the ladder and they have done it on the back of an exceptional defence, conceding just 16.73 points per game, which is good enough to rank second.
Remarkably, they have not conceded more than 26 all year and are unbeaten at home this season, plus 7-2 against the spread at Accor.
Canterbury have covered five of their last six day games and get key returns from Connor Tracey and Kurt Mann.
While the Warriors have an advantage through the middle, this is a bad spot for them, covering at just 41% in Australia the last four years while they are 11-25 against the spread against Top 6 teams.
Not to mention, they have covered just 10 of 31 off scoring 24-plus, which makes the more reliable Bulldogs are the play.
Matt Burton has eight tries this year and is in great scoring form and Stephen Crichton has four tries in his last four for the Bulldogs.
Best: Canterbury -5.5 ($1.85)
Next: Canterbury 13+ ($2.75)
Tryscorer: Matt Burton ($14 First, $2.65 Anytime)
SGM: Matt Burton Try/Stephen Crichton Try ($7.23)
Melbourne sits atop the ladder yet while they have been winning, they have not been putting teams to the sword.
Just two of the Storm’s wins this season have come by more than double digits so seeing them lay 13.5 on the road sends a major bet alert out on the Tigers and this is a big start for the home side to be getting.
While they got trounced last week by the Roosters, they copped no favours from the referees.
The Tigers have covered six of seven as an underdog at Leichhardt while they have covered seven of 11 at home against Top 4 opposition.
The Storm have covered just five of 13 when an interstate favourite while they have covered just six of 19 night games which strengthens the case for the Tigers.
Lachlan Galvin is an elite support player and is big value to cross this week, plus Eliesa Katoa has four tries in his last seven games.
Best: Wests Tigers +13.5 ($1.90)
Next: Melbourne 1-12 ($3.20)
Tryscorer: Lachlan Galvin ($34 First, $5.50 Anytime)
SGM: Lachlan Galvin Try/Eliesa Katoa Try ($13.30)
All attention around this game has centred on Tom Trbojevic’s return.
Manly desperately need him back but in a stunning decision from coach Anthony Seibold, he will play centre this week.
The Cowboys have certainly found their mojo of late with five wins in their last six matches including road wins over the Roosters and Panthers.
Despite missing all their Origin players last week, the Cowboys were highly impressive in beating the reigning premiers and have conceded 16 or fewer in three of their last four.
This is a nice spot for North Queensland with nine covers in their last 13 at home off a double digit win while they have covered 11 of 14 off conceding 10 or fewer.
The Sea Eagles on the other hand have covered just 11 of 26 interstate.
Feldt has seven tries in nine games against Manly, Jeremiah Nanai leads all forwards in tries this year with 11 and when healthy, Tom Trbojevic has 47 tries in 46 games across the last four seasons.
Best: North Queensland Win ($1.78)
Next: Exact Points 61+ ($3.70)
Tryscorer: Kyle Feldt Try ($10 First, $1.95 Anytime)
SGM: Kyle Feldt Try/Jeremiah Nanai Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($8.76)
The Roosters may well be the best team in the NRL right now.
They have the best attack and they come off conceding scores of just eight and six.
While the team does have the odd stumble in it, across their last nine games they have topped 38 five times.
In their seven wins, all have been by double digits and six have been by 18 or more.
In that run the Roosters downed the Dragons 60-18 on Anzac Day, making it 18 wins in the last 23 meetings with the Red V.
At Allianz, the Chooks have also covered six of nine.
The Dragons have improved significantly this year but this is not a great spot.
Covering just six of 18 times off a double digit win and just five of 21 off scoring 26-plus.
There is much more upside laying the points and being with the Roosters here.
Sitili Tupouniua is playing centre now and was excellent with a couple of assists last week, and he likely switches to his preferred right this week.
Young and Tupou also have 23 tries between them this year and are must-includes.
Best: Sydney Roosters -13.5 ($1.90)
Next: Exact Winning Margin Sydney Roosters 30+ ($4.25)
Tryscorer: Sitili Tupouniua ($16 First, $2.65 Anytime)
SGM: Sitili Tupouniua Try/Dom Young Try/Daniel Tupou Try ($6.33)
Newcastle have certainly been buoyed by the news that Kalyn Ponga is back in the team, for his first game since Round 7.
The club has found the right matchup to bring him back with the Raiders going as bad as any team in the premiership right now, covering just five of 16 at home and just four of 15 day games.
The Knights have dominated this matchup with seven covers in their last nine meetings.
Newcastle have covered 12 of 18 off scoring at least 18 while they have covered 12 of 14 day games.
Best has been in excellent tryscoring form with three tries in his last two games and Lucas also has three tries in his last two matches.
Best: Newcastle -4.5 ($1.94)
Next: Newcastle 13+ ($2.95)
Tryscorer: Bradman Best ($13 First, $2.35 Anytime)
SGM: Bradman Best Try/Dylan Lucas Try ($9.08)