2024 NFL Futures Forecast

2024 NFL Futures Forecast

Liam Fogarty

 

The countdown to the 2024/25 NFL Season is officially on, fantasy football drafts are well under way as is training camp and if you can’t tell, I’m excited about American Football returning.

The longest offseason in world sport is coming to a close and to get you all in the spirit, just like last year, I’ve trolled the neds’ futures markets to find some winners based on how I see this season playing out.

As always, I’ve run my eyes over all 32 NFL teams, their divisions and the end of season awards. Last year we were just shy of breaking even, of the 133 bets I chose, I finished with 121.62 units. There will be winners in here. Hopefully this year we improve on that!

If you like what you see, I will be posting all of these bets in the Neds NFL Open Group and you’ll also be able to find all of them on my profile.

Strap yourself in Punters, we’re in for another edition of: Fogs’ NFL Futures Forecast

Disclaimer: I mainly tip overs markets. We’re a positive group of NFL Punters. If I see a market that I reckon should go unders, I prefer to avoid. We’re not here to cheer for people’s downfalls.

 

Super Bowl LIX

Once again, the Kansas City Chiefs are betting favourites to win the Super Bowl and if you think Mahomes and Co can do it again, now is the time to get on. They will not be $6.80 for long if they get off to an early start.

I’m not backing the Chiefs this year however, will I end up regretting that? Mayhaps but for me this year I’m backing the Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl at $13.00. The Lions came agonisingly close to a spot in the Super Bowl last year. There was just a field goal in it against the 49ers and if the Lions had got through, I think they could’ve beaten the Chiefs. They did it in Week 1 last year.

Lions not only have talent across the board but have all bought into the culture that Dan Campbell has built in Detroit. It’s hard to find a more cohesive unit than the Lions and I think they take the next step this year and win the whole damn thing.

Goff, Monty, Gibbs, the Sun god Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Big Hutch on the D Line. Detroit have star power everywhere and I like them at $13

Back the Detroit Lions to win Super Bowl LIX @ $13.00

MVP

Last year I blindly backed Joe Burrow for MVP because I’m loyal to my boy and that loyalty let me down. This year I’m taking a step back and looking at this market objectively.

Lamar Jackson was our MVP last year and if you like him again you can get Lamar for $14 but I’m thinking outside the box this year and I’m going to back CJ Stroud of the Houston Texans.

Stroud had a phenomenal rookie campaign and exceeded all expectations, he put the Texans on the map after they finished with the second worst record in the 2022/23 season and I think he’s every chance to improve on that this year.

The Texans have continued to build around Stroud for this season, signing Stefon Diggs from the Bills to give him another stud pass catcher and bolstering their defence once again.

Stroud put up 4,108 yards, 23 TDs and just 5 INTS as a rookie and while yardage wise he might be close to his ceiling and expect those TD numbers to go up considerably this year. Another season in the league we should hopefully see some big things from the young signal caller.

While Mahomes is the obvious shout at $5.80, I think if Stroud takes the Texans to the next level that everyone is expecting this year, his price for MVP should come in something fierce.

Back CJ Stroud to win MVP @ $10.50

 

AWARDS

Offensive Player Of The Year

We are certainly in the era of the Wide Receiver and I can’t imagine that changes coming into this season.

There are a handful of wide outs that are a tier above the rest in the NFL and to the shock of absolutely no one, these boys are the favourites for OPOTY. Hill ($7.75) who almost went for 2k yards last year, Ja’Marr Chase ($9.75) who should bounce back from a disaster year injury wise for the Bengals, Justin Jefferson ($10.50) who in my eyes is the best WR in the league but this year it’s hard to look past CeeDee Lamb as my pick for OPOY.

Would you call his season a break out last year? Lamb has gone over 1,100 rec yards in each of his last three seasons and went monster on the back end last year finishing with 1,749 yards and 12 TDs.

He had a slow start to the 2023/24 season with only one game over 100 yards in his first five games but I see him coming out of the blocks strong this year and is every chance of breaking that 2,000 receiving yard number this season.

Certainly a bloke I’m trying to draft in fantasy this year and for that reason, I think he wins OPOTY.

Back CeeDee Lamb to win Offensive Player Of The Year @ $10.50

 

Defensive Player Of The Year

I need to be honest with you here punters, I’m a big fantasy guy and don’t pay a lot of attention to the defensive side of the ball so take this particular tip with a grain of salt.

Myles Garrett has been unstopabble and was a well deserved winner of DPOTY last year but for me this season, I think we see Aidan Hutchinson ascend and win DPOTY in his third season in the league.

This pick goes hand in hand with my Lions SB winner tip, I don’t think the Lions get to the promised land without a leader on the defensive end and my pick is their actual defensive end big Hutch.

Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks as a rookie and 11.5 in his sophomore season last year and for me. I think he’s a player primed to have a proper breakout as one of the best defensive players in the league.

Keep in mind, I don’t watch defence but that’s my pick.

Back Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Player Of The Year @ $15

 

Offensive Rookie Of The Year

Alright, this is where I’ve been cooking. I’m not willing to admit how many hours I’ve spent studying this rookie class. I’m taking my dynasty league hella seriously this year and I know these offensive rooks better than the back of my hand.

The day after the draft I backed Caleb Williams for OROY at $3.10 and he’s already come into $2.20 and even though it’s the favourite, it’s boring and unsexy. Caleb Williams will be OROY.

The first overall pick was earmarked as the first overall pick a few years ago and we now get to see Caleb as a Bear in the best situation a first overall pick has ever been drafted into.

Caleb has weapons all across the offensive side of the ball and anything less than an OROY season for the generational talent that is already being compared to Pat Mahomes is a failure in my eyes.

Barring injury, Caleb is a no brainer here.

Back Caleb Williams to win Offensive Rookie Of The Year @ $2.20

 

Defensive Rookie Of The Year

This market is truly wide open, especially after we didn’t see a defensive player drafted till the 15th pick.

Laiatu Latu and Dallas Turner are neck and neck favourites in this market and for me it’s a coin toss for DROY between these two. Both are drafted to great landing spots and should have ample opportunity to get after the QB this year.

I’m leaning towards Turner here, mainly because I believe the Vikings D will most likely be on the field more often this year than the Colts will. Turner was the best defensive player on a lot of experts’ draft boards and I think he’s a well deserved (and value) favourite in this market.

Back Dallas Turner to win Defensive Rookie Of The Year @ $5.25

 

Coach Of The Year

Another wide open market and often one where we don’t see the favourite win. This award is often storyline based and for me here, I think we could see Panthers Coach Dave Canales win Coach of the Year.

Canales goes to one of, if not the worst situation in the league with a horrid roster but Canales as a QB Coach revived both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield’s careers and if he can turn this Panther’s team around to an 8 win team at least, he should win Coach Of The Year.

Back Dave Canales to win Coach Of The Year @ $17.00

 

NFC NORTH

The North could be the most fascinating division in the league this season. All four teams have some very exciting storylines coming into this year but in my eyes. This division is a battle for second place.

The Vikings, Bears and Packers all have very strong teams on paper but as I’ve already mentioned multiple times in this article. I’m with Detroit here. The Lions are favourites to win this division but given the talent hot on their heels are a bit of value at $2.35.

Green Bay will be up there but I can’t not tip the team I have winning the Super Bowl to win their division.

Back the Detroit Lions to win the NFC North @ $2.35

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Vikings are in a bit of a rebuild this year after losing Kirk Cousins to the Falcons, they went and drafted Michigan QB JJ McCarthy with their first pick this year and then followed it up by taking one of the top defensive talents a bit later on in Dallas Turner.

There’s still question marks over who will be the starting QB here in Week 1 is it Sam Darnold or is it JJ?

Last year they finished 7-10 and given that they still have a lot of question marks around them, I don’t think they go over the 7.5 win line that the bookies have set for them. There will be some growing pains this year and that’s why I don’t see them doing well.

One player that will do well for the Vikes is Justin Jefferson. He’s now the highest paid WR of all time and the Vikings will force feed him the ball.

If McCarthy builds some chemistry with him we could see another big year for JJettas and that’s what I’m tipping.

Injuries were not kind to Jefferson last year, he missed seven games last year but still put up 1,074 yards and 5 TDs. If he plays all 17 games, Jefferson’s overs will land.

Back The Vikings Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.60

Back Justin Jefferson Over 1300.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.92

Back Justin Jefferson Over 7.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $1.95

 

DETROIT LIONS

Last time I talk about the Lions in here I promise.

The Lions were a 12-5 team last year but I’m tipping them to exceed those numbers this year. Given their win total is set at 10.5, I will be smashing their overs.

The Lions player markets really excite me too, let’s start with Jared Goff.

Goff finished last season with the second most pass yards in the league with 4,575 and given his catching core stays relatively the same, I don’t see him going under the 4000.5 yard marker the bookies have given him. That’s a comfortable over for me.

Their backfield is a two headed monster in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs but this will be Gibbs’ true breakout season. Gibbs rushed for 945 yards last season and should see an increase in running volume this year, another easy overs market here for me given the bookies have him at 825.5 yards.

Over to the pass catchers, let’s start with the Sun God, Amon-Ra St. Brown. Amon-Ra finished with the third most receiving yards in the league last year at 1515 and 10 TDs and I do not see him slowing down this year. The bookies have him at 1275.5 and I honestly think that’s his floor. If the Lions go on the run I’m expecting, St. Brown could win OPOY this year.

Goff’s second passing option and breakout Tight End last year Sam LaPorta is the other player I’m taking overs for this year. We’ve never seen a rookie tight end play the way LaPorta did last year and he is every chance to eclipse 1000 receiving yards this year. LaPorta is also a huge redzone threat for the Lions. He had 10 TDs last year and should have similar numbers this season.

Do it for Tim Robinson Detroit.

Back The Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Regular Season Wins @ $2.02

Back Jared Goff Over 4000.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $1.87

Back Jahmyr Gibbs Over 825.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 1275.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.00

Back Sam LaPorta Over 875.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.10

Back Sam LaPorta Over 7.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $2.05

  

GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers and the emergence of Jordan Love last season was one of the biggest surprises for a lot of NFL Fans.

The Packers finished 9-8 last season but the 6-2 run they went on after Week 11 is what I’m more interested in.

I think there is some value in the Packers to win over 9.5 games this year, as I mentioned above they certainly showed that they have the talent to beat a lot of teams and they did it averaging 27.5 points over the back end of the season which is great for overs markets and fantasy.

Jordan Love threw for 4,159 yards last season and I don’t see him throwing for less than 4000 this season as well, his receiving core should be healthy and Love showed last year that benching him for years was well worth the wait.

GB’s running backs could be one of the great stay aways, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs and now Marshawn Lloyd will all share the ball here and it’s truly impossible to predict what kind of time share we’ll see here. There’s every chance none of them go over 1000 yards.

Speaking of messy rooms, the Packers’ WR room has a lot of mouths to feed and at times it seemed like Love had a new favourite receiver every week. My pick this season however is Christian Watson. Watson has been very unlucky with hamstring injuries but when he’s on the field he’s incredible to watch.

A healthy Watson goes over his 750.5 receiving yard line comfortably.

Back The Packers Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.72

Back Jordan Love Over 3850.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $1.87

Back Christian Watson Over 750.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

 

CHICAGO BEARS

Da Bears, one of the teams I am most excited to watch this season.

What’s not to get excited about here, Chicago went and got Keenan Allen to compliment DJ Moore. They picked up D’Andre Swift to lead the backfield and then they went and drafted both Caleb Williams one of the most highly touted rookie QBs we’ve seen in a while and WR Rome Odunze who could’ve been the first receiver drafted in any year that didn’t have Marvin Harrison Jr in it.

The Bears suddenly have a lot of expectation to win and win now. Given that they were a 7-10 season without Caleb, Rome, D’Andre and Keenan I don’t see why they can’t improve and push for a playoff spot.

The Bears have not had a good history of QBs and I believe that Caleb will smash all of their records. They’ve never in their history had a QB throw for 4000 yards and that all ends this season.

Caleb’s first ever passing line is 3450.5 you already know we’re taking the overs. The receiving yards markets seem to be the tough ones to navigate. There are a lot of mouths to feed but the first one I will be taking is Rome Odunze for over 650.5. We saw Stroud and Tank Dell last year develop chemistry instantly and Odunze is a better receiver than Dell, he should go over 650 yards that’s what he was drafted to do.

DJ Moore is still the alpha dog here for now and with his line set at 1050.5 I think he goes over that with Caleb as well.

Back The Bears Over 8.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.65

Back Caleb Williams Over 3450.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $1.87

Back Caleb Williams Over 23.5 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns @ $2.00

Back DJ Moore Over 1050.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.10

Back Rome Odunze Over 650.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ 1.83

Back Rome Odunze Over 4.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $1.95

 

AFC NORTH

Last year I declared that the AFC North would be the most competitive division in the NFL and that all four teams could potentially make the playoffs. We were not far off in the end were we?

This year might be a different story however, I personally think Cleveland and Pittsburgh have taken a backwards slide and won’t be able to compete with Baltimore and Cincinnati. The Bengals were hit very hard by the injury goblin last year and I can’t imagine lightning strikes twice like that this season.

This should be a bloody close division, but I have Cincy edging out the Ravens.

Back The Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC North @ $2.60

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Bengals simply need to be better this season, we’ve seen that they have the pieces to get to the Super Bowl but they all need to stay on the field this season and I’ve got all my fingers and toes crossed that they do.

We only got to see Joe Burrow suit up 10 times in 2023, the warning flags were there in pre season when he went down hurt in training camp and then a wrist injury saw smoking Joe miss the rest of the year.

With a healthy (and upright) Burrow the sky is the limit. The Bengals did a shocking job of protecting Joe when he played last year. On average he was sacked 2.4 times a game. A consistent trend in Cincy that they can’t seem to break.

The Bengals win line is set at 10.5 and I’m banking on Burrow playing all 17 games here, if they don’t go over that with Burrow then they have failed.

Player market wise, Joey B’s pass yard line has been set at 4100.5, a number he’s gone over comfortably the seasons he’s played the full year. I’m with Burrow to go over.

If we’re taking Burrow’s overs, Ja’Marr Chase for over 1350.5 receiving yards needs to be in the consideration. Ja’Marr finished under that last year with 1,216 yards and 7 TDs and he did that in a year where he failed to go over 75 yards in 9 of his 16 appearances.

If Burrow’s on the field, Ja’Marr’s overs should hit come week 13.

Back the Bengals for Over 10.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.72

Back Joe Burrow Over 4100.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $2.10

Back Ja’Marr Chase Over 1350.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $2.15

 

BALTIMORE RAVENS

It was a lack of running back performance that ended up being Baltimore’s downfall last year, after injuries to seemingly every RB that suited up behind Lamar in 2023 the Ravens went out and signed King Henry himself.

Derrick Henry to the Ravens makes this team so much more exciting to watch in 2024 and while the Ravens will be good this year, I don’t think they can improve on 13-4 last year.

The Bookies have set us a tough line for the Ravens, 11.5 the under here looks the way to go for me, The Ravens will be in the playoffs this year but I think they do it with 10/11 wins. A very tight under for me.

Lamar Jackson had his best ever passing year by a long way last season, he finished with 3,678 yards, 24 Tds and 7 ints and with a healthy Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry in the backfield to confuse defensive coordinators. I think Lamar finally hits that 4000 mark. Lamar over 3450.5 Passing is a comfortable bet for me.

The Baltimore rushing markets are what stress me out. Lamar eclipsed 821 rushing yard last year but you’d imagine Derrick Henry lightens his load a fair bit but by how much? King Henry last season had the second most rush yards in the league with 1,167 yards and 12 Tds. Given how much Baltimore like to run the ball, I lean towards Henry’s rush yards and just enjoying Lamar’s rushing as a fan.

Back The Ravens Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins @ $2.30

Back Lamar Jackson Over 3450.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $2.15

Back Derrick Henry Over 975.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ 1.87

 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Kenny Pickett experiment is officially over in Pittsburgh, and I can’t imagine things go well here for the Steelers this season.

With far too many questions at Quarterback this season and former Falcons HC Arthur Smith coming over to run this offense (as in the guy that refused to use Bijan or get the ball to Kyle Pitts).  I am not very optimistic about the Steelers season at all.

Their win line is set at 7.5 and it’s a rare unders bet for me here. There is next to nothing about the Steelers that excites me this year.

Najee Harris finished with 1,035 rushing yards last season and you’d hope that he goes over the 800.5 yard line the bookies have for him here. There’s every chance that Artie absolutely feeds Jaylen Warren instead though.

Back The Steelers Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins @ $2.45

Back Najee Harris Over 800.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

 

CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Browns went on a rip and tear last season with Joe Flacco under centre. After calling the veteran QB off the couch to replace Deshaun Watson, the Browns finished 11-6 only to be stomped by CJ Stroud’s Texans in the wildcard game.

Even though the Browns will return to full health to start the year, I am predicting a down year here. Deshaun Watson has clearly lost the talent that saw him light up the world in Houston and there will be plenty of question marks around how Nick Chubb performs after his sickening injury last year.

Amari Cooper seems to be the only consistent player in this team. Amari played lights out for both Watson and Flacco last year and I like him for overs in both his yards and touchdown markets.

Back the Browns Under 8.5 Regular Season Wins @ $2.10

Back Amari Cooper Over 975.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

Back Amari Cooper Over 5.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $2.00

 

NFC EAST

The NFC East has been one of the least competitive division in the league of late but we could certainly be starting to see that change.

Philadelphia and Dallas continue to powerhouses but the Commanders drafting LSU QB Jayden Daniels could be massive for both Washington and the division.

Philadelphia are well deserved favourites to win the East and I don’t see a world where that doesn’t happen this season. The signing of Saquon Barkley from the Giants makes this team infinitely scarier and $1.91 almost looks like overs here.

Back The Philadelphia Eagles To Win the NFC East @ $1.91


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Starting things off with the team I think wins the East, the Eagles will look at their 11-6 season last year as a disappointment especially because they were so close to lifting the Lombardi the season before.

There’s no Jason Kelce this year but Saquon Barkley is the man in the backfield this year. It’s always felt like Philly were a piece away on offense and the best pass catching running back in the league could be just what they need to tip them over the edge.

There’s a lot of markets I love for Philly, Over 10.5 wins seems like a no brainer. I believe they have a better season than last year. Jalen Hurts for over 3625.5 passing yards is another stand out, he finished with 3,858 last year and if you’re with me on the Eagles narrative this year. He goes over that.

The Philly rushing markets are the ones that fascinate me, does Jalen Hurts go over his 10.5 rushing TD line? The Tush Push has been successful but do the Eagles continue to take goal line carries away from an RB they just paid a lot of money to get? It’s too big of a line for me to tip.

I like their yardage numbers however; Saquon will thrive behind this O-line and Hurts’ line is surprisingly small considering he averages 625.75 rushing yards a season.

Back The Eagles Over 10.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.94

Back Jalen Hurts Over 3625.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $2.00

Back Jalen Hurts Over 500.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Saquon Barkley Over 1025.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

 

DALLAS COWBOYS

At the time of writing this, Dallas are a bit of a mess. There are a few top dogs that are yet to receive contract extensions yet, will this have a knock on effect heading into the season? It’s hard to say.

Dallas to the surprise of a lot of people won the NFC East last year with a 12-6 record. It had a lot to do with CeeDee Lamb finally emerging as one of the most elite talents in the league. Lamb finished with a massive stat line of 1,749 yards and 12 TDs last year and there is a genuine chance he breaks 2,000 yards this year.

The Cowboys are another team I like the overs on, their win line is sitting on 10.5 and I think 11 wins is pretty much where I have them this year. Overs on all CeeDee’s markets too. I’ve already backed him for OPOTY and he can’t do that without destroying his markets.

Back Dallas Cowboys Over 10.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.98

Back CeeDee Lamb Over 1325.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

Back CeeDee Lamb Over 9.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $1.95


NEW YORK GIANTS

There is not a lot to get excited about in New York this year, and that’s coming from a Giants fan.

Saquon is gone… to a divisional rival and it’s a very big prove it year for Daniel Jones. He returns from his ACL injury and needs to prove to almost everyone in football that he’s worth the massive extension the Giants paid him a few years ago.

There have been some interesting off season transactions for NY, Brian Burns comes over from the Panthers and should compliment Dexter Lawrence well but the one that fascinates me the most is LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers.

Nabers could well and truly be OBJ 2.0 in New York, another stud wide out that is probably first off the board in any other draft class, Nabers’ skillset allows him to get open and get the ball regardless of QB skill. His RACability and top line speed will more than likely keep Daniel Jones employed for a little bit longer.

So where does that leave the Giants betting wise? With a win line of 6.5, I can’t see them improving I’m with the unders. However Malik Nabers for over 850.5 yards and 5.5 touchdowns. We’re about to see him get north of 150 targets.

Back the Giants Under 6.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.65

Back Malik Nabers Over 850.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

Back Malik Nabers Over 5.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $1.80

  

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

For the first time in my NFL watching lifetime, I’m excited to watch a Commanders game this year (I was a bit young for the RG3 years).

With their first pick in the draft this year, the Commies went and picked Heisman winner & LSU QB Jayden Daniels as their new face of the franchise moving forward and it could be the smartest thing I’ve ever seen them do.

Daniels comes into a team that finished 4-13 last year which is not good but there are more than enough tools for Daniels to get to work with here.

Terry McLaurin finally has a talented Quarterback, I’m expecting him to explode. The Commanders went and signed Austin Ekeler from the Chargers, expect a lot of screen game to him and there are whispers that the Commanders could pinch Brandon Aiyuk from the 49ers.

Not to mention Jayden Daniels’ ability to improvise and scramble, everything I’m seeing and reading has the Commanders primed and ready for a launch into relevancy.

They seem like a 7 or 8 win team this season and if they actually sign Aiyuk, they could even win 9 games.

I’ll be taking Over 6.5 wins as well as over 3225.5 passing yards for Daniels.

Back The Commanders Over 6.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.83

Back Jayden Daniels Over 3225.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $2.10

 

AFC EAST

Last year a lot of experts had the AFC East as a three horse race but four snaps into the Jets season we saw a team bow out. How will things play out this year?
The Bills and Jets and the favourites to win the East but for me it’s the Dolphins. Buffalo have to many question marks about their pass catchers and we are yet to see how Aaron Rodgers plays with the Jets.

What Miami did last year was unreal and I think every other team in this division has gotten weaker while they’ve only grown. No brainer here for me.

Back The Miami Dolphins to Win the AFC East @ $3.05

 

BUFFALO BILLS

Still the favourites to win the AFC East but I just don’t see it this year. Stefon Diggs is gone, Gabe Davis is gone and the Buffalo offense starts the year with a serious identity crisis.

That is a lot of vacant targets and while I’m stoked about it as someone who has dynasty shares in Dalton Kincaid, I see a world where the Bills start the year poorly. Their first four games are the Cardinals (they look fun, we’ll get to them), the Dolphins (Phins to win), Jaguars (Jags should be improved) and the Ravens. There’s a massive chance the Bills start 1-3 to start the year if they don’t get their offense right and I’m leaning towards a play on their under 10.5 win market.

Keon Coleman is an exciting WR prospect but it’s a big ask for him to be a WR1 in this offense especially as a player that never had 1000 yards at the collegiate level. The opportunity is there but I think I’m a Bills doubter this year.

Back the Bills Under 10.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.70

Back Josh Allen Under 3750.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $1.87

Back Josh Allen Over 550.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $2.00

Back Keon Coleman Over 700.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.95

Back Keon Coleman Over 4.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $1.95

Back Dalton Kincaid Over 750.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.82

 

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Given how bullish I am on Miami this year I reckon there’s a bit of value to be found here.

They’re building something very exciting down in Florida and for the life of me I can’t understand why the bookies are so down on them.

The Dolphins finished 11-6 last year and their win line is set at 9.5 this season, I think they at least win 12 this year so that’s a confident over bet for me.

There’s talent all across the park here for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill almost went for 2000 yards last year and there’s every chance he goes close here once again. Miami’s formula seems impossible to stop and I like overs for Tua, Tyreek and sophomore running back De’Von Achane.

Achane was one of the most efficient RBs last year on limited carries and I think he will explode this year.

Tua for MVP this year? I don’t think it’s a horrendous bet.

 

Back the Dolphins Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.80

Back Tua Tagovailoa Over 4075.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $2.00

Back De’Von Achane Over 750.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Tyreek Hill Over 1375.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

 

NEW YORK JETS

Despite losing Aaron Rodgers almost immediately, the Jets rallied and somewhat salvaged their season. 7-11 isn’t horrendous for a team that relied on the milf man Zach Wilson for a good chunk of the year.

The Jets should improve this year if Rodgers plays the whole year. Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and now deep threat (and injury threat) Mike Williams should make the Jets very attractive for yardage markets.

Double digit wins for the Jets though? The bookies have probably nailed this line, which is lame for us. It’s a tough line to pick but I have them as a 10 win team. I’ll take the over here.

Aaron Rodgers’ markets this year could be the great stay aways but I’m bullish on both Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Breece could finish this year with the most rushing yards in the league and should put this team on his back.

Back the Jets Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.68

Back Breece Hall Over 1000.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.64

Back Garrett Wilson Over 1150.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.00

 


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The poor old Pats, look, they’re taking steps in the right direction but I don’t think they will amount to much this season.

Drake Maye is a huge addition to this team but I expect some growing pains this year. Outside of Rhamondre Stevenson. There isn’t a lot of talent on this team that I can get excited about or confidently tip.

The Patriots WR room could be the most ambigious in the league. Ja’Lynn Polk is the WR I have earmarked as their WR1 for at least this year but we don’t know when Maye will get his first start and there’s every chance these boys have an early pick next year.

I think I’m going to take them for under 4.5 wins and not think about them too much this year.

Back the Patriots Under 4.5 Regular Season Wins @ $2.30

 

NFC SOUTH

As predicted last year, the NFC South ended up being the most mediocre division in the league.

When a 9-8 record gets you into the playoffs, you know things are grim in the South.

It’s a two horse race in the South this year and for me, the Falcons are head and shoulders above the competition. I’ll get into them a bit more below but they are the favourites here for a reason and should win the South comfortably.

Back The Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South @ $1.87

 

ATLANTA FALCONS

Dirty Birds fans rejoice! Arthur Smith is gone and it’s time to take the Bugatti’s out of the garage.

Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts should all see a significant boost in their stat lines this year. Kirk Cousins is such a good signing for ATL and the Falcons skill positions should go very high in fantasy drafts this season.

The bookies have them as a 9.5 win team which puts them on par with last year but I see them improving. Big Kirko will air that ball out and London and Pitts should profit considerably. Fingers crossed we see Bijan finally get the 20+ touches a game that he deserves too.

Given the high draft capital they invest on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr, I’d imagine he may get a start or two at some point to a bet on Cousins leaves me hesitant but overs for the skill positions I’m willing to back with absolute confidence.

Back the Falcons Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.65

Back Bijan Robinson Over 925.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Drake London Over 1000.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.92

Back Kyle Pitts Over 800.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.00


CAROLINA PANTHERS

I need to put a disclaimer on this one, I am a Bryce Young truther so feel free to take me on if you disagree, but I think this is the year Young breaks out.

It was a disastrous debut year for the first overall pick in 2023, Bryce Young in 2023 was the third most pressured QB and the second most sacked QB in the league but I challenge you to got back and watch his actual tape. A genuine draft bust wouldn’t have a 20 minute highlight reel on the official NFL YouTube page if he couldn’t play.

The Panthers are in a full rebuild at the moment and the signing of Head Coach Dave Canales could be the best pick up of the lot. If you haven’t read my Coach of the Year tip above, Canales as a QB coach revived Geno Smith’s career at the Seahawks and also gave Baker Mayfield at the Bucs one of his best seasons ever.

Canales’ QB knowledge will hopefully unlock Bryce’s true potential and the signing of Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette finally gives Young some genuine weapons. Not to mention running back Jonathan Brooks in the backfield will have every chance at being a 1000 yard RB  this year.

The Panthers win line is 5.5 this year, I think six wins this year is where they finish up so it’s a tight line but we’ll take the overs.

Bryce for over 3200.5 might be one of the biggest backed unders we see this year but I’m going the other way, Diontae Johnson will ball out in Carolina mark my words.

Back the Panthers Over 5.5 Wins @ $2.20

Back Bryce Young Over 3200.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $1.87

Back Jonathon Brooks Over 800.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Diontae Johnson Over 825.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.00

Back Xavier Legette Over 600.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.02

Back Xavier Legette Over 3.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $2.10

 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Saints are a side that I can’t say have improved in the offseason this year. Just an incredibly stagnant side that is lacking some serious identity.

I think they’re lucky the Panthers are in their division because there is a huge chance that New Orleans finish last in the division this year.

I’m not a fan of Derrick Carr and while I love both Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. There’s not about the Saints that gets me excited this season.

Back the Saints Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins @ $2.02

Back Alvin Kamara Over 650.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

  

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

One of the surprises of 2023, the Buccaneers exceeded all expectations with Baker Mayfield under centre. The Bucs won the division last year and even eliminated the Eagles during Wildcard Weekend.

Tampa now have some actual expectations this season but the bookies expect them to finish about the same spot, their win line is 7.5 and given how weak the division is a 9 win season again isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

Baker finished with 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year and I don’t see why he can’t emulate those numbers once again here. The addition of Jalen McMillan to the receiving room should give Mayfield more than enough targets to hit his overs.

Mike Evans was ever consistent again last season, he has never had a season in the NFL below 1,000 yards and with his line set at 1050.5 again this year. I like him for his overs.

Back the Buccaneers Over 7.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.65

Back Baker Mayfield Over 3650.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $2.15

Back Mike Evans Over 1050.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.10

 

AFC SOUTH

The AFC South seems to be the opposite of their NFC counterparts. All four teams are a genuine chance to win the division this year and are all rolling out some pretty exciting teams.

There’s an argument to be made for almost every team but the smart play is the Texans. Houston have continued to build around CJ Stroud this off season and it’s their division to lose now. $2.05 odds isn’t that bad either all things considered.

Back The Houston Texans to Win the AFC South @ $2.05

 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

It’s a very big year for Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville have opened up their chequebook for him and it’s about time he returned the favour.

Trevor hasn’t ever quite reached the heights he was drafted for but it’s clear the Jaguars still think he’ll get there. Calvin Ridley is gone and the Jags went and drafted Brian Thomas Jr from LSU. A WR that I expect to become the top target in this offense almost immediately.

Last years 9-8 finish should be considered a fail, this roster should be a double digit win team and that’s what I have them pinned as. The bookies have been kind to us here at 8.5 and I will be taking that over.

Trev’s game tape shows the potential is there, but he needs receivers to actually hold on to the ball one more than one occasion last year TLaw delivered perfect balls to wide open receivers only to have the pass spilled in the endzone.

Trev’s being valued at his floor right now, he threw for 4,016 yards last year and I think there’s value in his yardage market.

Travis Etienne seems to be valued quite low as well, the Clemson RB has had two seasons over 1,000 rush yards and the bookies have him at 900.5. That’s an easy over for me.

A lot of experts believe Christian Kirk is the guy in this offense but I think we’ll be talking about Brian Thomas Jr all year long. He’s my pick in the WR room to go over his yards.

Back the Jaguars for Over 8.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.83

Back Trevor Lawrence Over 3800.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $1.87

Back Travis Etienne Over 900.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Brian Thomas Jr Over 825.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $2.20

 

TENNESSEE TITANS

I know I said above that all four teams could win the South, while the Titans could be a little bit of fun this year. I think they could be the team most likely to come last here.

Big fan of Will Levis and how he played last year but losing Derrick Henry and having the aging DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley as your top wideouts probably won’t get it done.

Levis needs some young talent around him and that might come through the draft next year. I think they’ll have an early pick.

Back Tennessee Titans Under 6.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.72

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Colts are making a case for one of the all-time great Madden teams but we’re yet to see them put it together on the field yet.

Anthony Richardson should be fully healthy come Week 1 but there is a lot resting on his shoulders considering he’s played less games than a full NFL season combined in both his collegiate and pro career.

I just can’t back AR15 yet, I’m happy to be wrong about him this year but I won’t be putting my money near him. There is a bit of value for skill position in Indy however.

We should get a healthy Jonathan Taylor this season and I think people forget how dominating he can be.

On top of that, rookie Adonai Mitchell has a miniscule touchdown market that I’m going to attack. Adonai could’ve very easily been drafted in the first round but he fell to the Colts at the top of the third. Over 2.5 touchdowns looks like a hit for me.

Back the Colts Under 8.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.83

Back Jonathan Taylor Over 1025.5 Regular Season Rush Yards @ $1.87

Back Adonai Mitchell Over 2.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $1.95

  

HOUSTON TEXANS

To wrap up the AFC South is the side that I think wins it, the Houston Texans.

I’ve already made a case for CJ Stroud to win MVP this year and I need to stick to my guns here and back the Texans heavy.

Houston have given Stroud more weapons than he’ll know what to do with. I will be backing CJ’s overs

Over 9.5 wins also looks the play here, they were a 10-7 side last year and I do not see them going backwards.

The receiving markets for Houston could be a dart throw, there are lot of mouths to feed. Diggs, Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz even Joe Mixon will demand targets and it’s hard to pin down who CJ’s favourite target will be. I’d rather put an extra unit or two on Stroud’s passing overs.

Back Houston Over 9.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.65

Back CJ Stroud Over 4275.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $2.10

Back CJ Stroud Over 26.5 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns @ $1.87

 

NFC WEST

We saw a Super Bowl team out of the NFC West last year, will it happen again in 2024? I don’t believe so.

Don’t get me wrong, the 49ers will win this division again but there are a lot of teams that are catching up to them in the NFC.

We’re only talking about the West right now and my pick to win it is the obvious choice, San Francisco.

Back The San Francisco 49ers to Win the NFC West @ $1.50

 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

The 49ers are a hard team to pick right now. We don’t know if Brandon Aiyuk will return to the team at this point in time and while one man doesn’t make the 9ers. He has been one of their best pass catchers for the last few seasons.

The 49ers have been earmarked for 11.5 wins this season and I’m willing to back the under here. Last season I backed the Super Bowl runners up (the Eagles) to get back to the SB and that did not go as planned. I could very easily see a down year for the 9ers here.

Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey’s receiving yards look the value in San Fran, especially if they do lose Aiyuk.

Back the 49ers Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.80

Back Christian McCaffrey Over 500.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

Back Deebo Samuel Over 750.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I’m not confident on Seattle this year and it looks like neither are the bookies.

7.5 wins is the line and I’m not sure if they get it this year. Geno Smith has been incredible recently for the Seahawks but I just get the nagging feeling the fall off is about to happen.

He shouldn’t have an excuse though, DK Metcalf is still him, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first WR off the board last year and Tyler Lockett is back and reliable as all hell but I don’t know about Seattle this year hey.

Both the Rams and Cardinals seem like improved sides and in my eyes that means Seattle drop a few games this year.

Back Seattle Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins @ $2.10

Back Kenneth Walker Over 875.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 725.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

 

LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Rams finishing 10-7 last year came as a shock to a lot of people, while they clearly still have some talent on the roster. Many pundits expected the beginning of the end for LA.

Then in came Puka Nacua out of nowhere and broke rookie records left, right and centre.

This year the bookies have the Rams at 8.5 wins and while I expect them to go backwards from 10-7, I don’t see them dropping to a negative record. 9-8 is about where I have LA this year.

If you want a genuine tip for a break out smokey this year, look no further than Rams RB Blake Corum.

Currently, Kyren Williams is the guy and won a lot of fantasy leagues for people last year but I’m tipping Corum to be the guy that leads the Rams in rushing yards by the end of the year. He was a machine in Michigan and will ball out under Sean McVay.

Puka Nacua is the other Rams player I’m willing to back this year for obvious reasons, his line is set at 1150.5 yards and Stafford has proven he can provide that for Nacua.

Back the Rams Over 8.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.67

Back Blake Corum Over 905.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Puka Nacua Over 1150.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Kyler is healthy, they’ve just drafted Maserati Marv. The Cardinals are going to be fun this year.

It’s been a turbulent two seasons for Arizona, the late ACL tear to Kyler in 2022 set them back for two whole seasons but he’s fully healthy now and they’ve just drafted Marvin Harrison Jr, one of the highest touted WR prospects we’ve seen in a long time.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a healthy Kyler and I think people forget just how good he is when he’s on, I believe we will get to see him at his best once again this season.

With a win line at just 6.5, that’s an easy over for me. The Cards won four last year and I see them winning another three this year easily.

Back the Cardinals Over 6.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.53

Back Kyler Murray Over 3450.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $1.75

Back Kyler Murray Over 475.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

Back Marvin Harrison Jr Over 1075.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

Back Marvin Harrison Jr Over 6.5 Regular Season Touchdowns @ $2.20

 

AFC West

Last but not least, the AFC West.

Bit of a no brainer this one yeah? Just back the Chiefs. Every other team has gone backwards in this division except the back to back Champs.

Back the Kansas City Chiefs to Win the AFC West @ $1.42


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Whether you like it or not, you have to admit we’re in the middle of a dynasty right now. As long as Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes are in KC. They will be in the Super Bowl conversation for years to come.

There’s not a heap value to be found given how good the Chiefs are, their line is set at 11.5 I’m tossing a coin here and it’s landed on overs, fingers crossed for a 12 win year.

The addition of Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy should see Mahomes’ passing stats resume to where we expect them to be. It was a down year last season for Pat with just 4,183 yards. A good year for most but not for Mahomes.

With his new weapons as well as the old cast of Kelce and Rashee Rice at some point (if he even gets suspended) Mahomes should have a 4,500+ yard year.

Isiah Pacheco is the other skill player I like in KC. The bookies have him at 925.5 and I think he rushes for 1,000 this year.

Back the Chiefs Over 11.5 Regular Season wins @ $1.80

Back Patrick Mahomes Over 4100.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $2.10

Back Isiah Pacheco Over 925.5 Regular Season Rushing Yards @ $1.87

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Jim Harbaugh is building a new team in LA, it’s starting from the trenches and he’s working his way out.

For the fans of punch em in the mouth, 45+ carries a game that’s what I’m expecting to see from the Chargers this year which will be interesting given how Justin Herbert loves to sling the ball down field.

Everything about the Chargers is murky at the moment, who’s the real RB1, who are the WRs to back? It’s impossible to get a genuine read on the Chargers at this point in the off season.

Their win line is the exact same as the LA Rams, 8.5 and when I went to put on Rams over 8.5 I accidentally backed the Chargers for Over 8.5 wins. My dyslexia has picked this line and I’m going to stick with it.

Herbert’s yardage is short and that’s to be expected, can he find 3,600.5 yards from Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer? I really don’t know if he can.

Ladd McConkey is my pick of this WR Room, his college tape is pretty shmick and should get early opportunity with Herbert.

Back the Chargers Over 8.5 Regular Season Wins @ $1.67

Ladd McConkey Over 750.5 Regular Season Receiving Yards @ $1.87

 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

It’s a shame I’ve ordered this article this way because we’re going to end on two very sour notes unfortunately.

The Raiders will have a very high draft pick next year and there is next to nothing about this team that interests me. Gardner Minshew is the QB, Zamir White is the RB, and againe Davante Adams is the only receiver and they went and drafted Brock Bowers to compliment tight end Michael Mayer who they drafted last year.

Everything about the Raiders makes me physically ill and the only marketing I’m touching here is their unders.

Back the Raiders Under 6.5 Regular Season Wins @ $2.15

 

DENVER BRONCOS

The last team in our 2024 futures forecast is another dumpster fire of a team. Sean Payton reached for Bo Nix in the first round of the draft and while QB was a position of need. I don’t know if they needed to address it that early in the draft.

Denver finished 8-9 last year and they’re currently being valued as a 5.5 win team. This is another market I will be comfortably back the unders for. There is not a lot going for this team that I like and while I think Bo Nix may come good eventually, it certainly won’t be this season.

Back the Broncos Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins@ $2.20

Back Bo Nix Under 2825.5 Regular Season Passing Yards @ $1.87