2024 AFL Round 18 Tips & Preview

2024 AFL Round 18 Tips & Preview

Dylan Leach

SPECIAL EDITION – FIRST GOAL KICKER WEEK 2024 

When it comes to betting on footy, there’s head-to-head, line, margins, disposals, goals scored, we even offer AFL fantasy points here at Neds.

In the age of the Same Game Multi and stats at your fingertips, there’s plenty of ways to find a winner on any old game of footy each weekend.

However, one market has stood the test of time.

First goal kicker.

From a punting perspective, there’s nothing more exciting than seeing your man kick the first sausage roll for the game, usually at a nice price, so you can put the feet up and enjoy the rest of the game knowing there’s a bit of bugs bunny in the old sky rocket (money in your pocket – for those of you who don’t get rhyming slang)

This week on the Neds AFL Tips and Preview we celebrate the first goal kicker and go ALL IN and pick who will kick the first one in each of the nine games being played.

If we jag a couple, it’ll be a pretty profitable weekend.

Can we do it? Find out in our AFL Round 18 Tips & Preview below

COLLINGWOOD VS GEELONG (Friday, 7:40pm)
1st Goal Kicker - Nathan Kreuger (Coll) @ $14

It was a long road back from injury for the big man but in the four matches he’s played this season, Nathan Kreuger is proving to be favourite amongst the Magpie Army and is averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Kreuger has scored two or more goals in three out of the Pies last four at home.

With the $14 on offer, here’s hoping we’re all saying Krrruuuuuuuuuuuuuu nice and early to start first goal kicker week off with a BANG.

Bet now: Pies v Cats
SYDNEY vs NORTH MELBOURNE (saturday, 1:45pm)
1st Goal Kicker - Cameron Zurhaar (NM) @ $12

After two losses in a row, the Swans don’t look as almighty has we hyped them up a couple of weeks back, but they are still a bloody good side and go into this game $1.08 head to head favourites against the much improved and off the bottom of the ladder North Melbourne.

Who kicks the first on Saturday remains the big question in this one.

Sydney has been a slow starting team of last, and there’s a trend that in the last eight games they’ve played at the SCG their highest-scoring half in the second, which makes me fancy a Kangaroos player to kick the first.

Cameron Zurhaar has been nothing but consistent this season and having kicked at least a goal in each of his last 10 games, the $12 on offer for the first sausage roll on Saturday could be a tasty choice.

Bet now: Swans v North
HAWTHORN VS FREMANTLE (Saturday, 1:45pm)
1st goal kicker - Jye Amiss (Freo) @ $11

With the game being played in Launceston, the wind can be a major factor depending on the day.

Having said that, if Freo can head down to the apple isle and take the four points from the Hawks at their home away from home it will send a message to the AFL world that the Dockers are fair dinkum.

Young gun key forward Jye Amiss has been averaging 1.5 goals per game and has hit the 2+ mark over the past fortnight with the Dockers big wins over Sydney and Richmond.

If Amiss can jag the first one, it’s anchors away and we’re cooking to a nice $11 win.

Bet now: Hawks v Freo
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS CARLTON (Saturday, 4:35pm)
1st goal kicker - Marcus Bontempelli (WB) @ $13

Both teams are coming off disappointing losses and Saturday’s clash at Marvel Stadium is likely to be make or break for the Western Bulldogs finals chances.

It remains a mystery as to which Western Bulldogs team will turn up to face the second on the ladder Blues, but if Marcus Bontempelli – aka the Bont can have a good day then there might be some bark left hin Bevo’s men for season 2024.

The Bont has kicked 2+ goals in four out of the Bulldogs last five and saves his best for the best, having recorded 25+ disposals in each of the Dogs last four games against teams in the top four.

(Recent happenings at the tribunal might also have him higher up the order to win the Brownlow as well.)

If the Bont kicks the first one, we could have a game on our hands – and a nice $13 profit along the way.

Bet now: Dogs v Blues
ADELAIDE vs ST KILDA (saturday, 7:30pm)
1st Goal Scorer - Jack Higgins (St K) @ $10

The man who declared early on in his career “I just love kicking snags” when playing at Richmond, St Kilda’s Jack Higgins has kicked 2+ goals in nine of his last 12 appearances.

Higgins is averaging an elite 2.1 goals per game this season, including single-handedly getting the Saints back in the game against the Swans including the one that got them the lead in their upset win last weekend.

When Snags is hot, he’s hot – in fact, he’s sizzling.

Bet now: Crows v Saints
MELBOURNE VS ESSENDON (Saturday, 7:30pm)
1st goal kicker - Zach Merrett (Ess) @ $26

The Bombers are up and about and they’ll fancy themselves against the Dees at the MCG on Saturday night.

A major factor in the Bombers resurgence has been captain Zach Merrett, some even fancy him as a Brownlow chance ($7.50 at time of publish)

Although in the midfield, there’s a good case to be made that a captains goal to start the game will really get the Dons fans up and about,.

Merrett has kicked at least 1 goal in each of the last five when the Bombers are favourites and he loves it at the MCG – having recorded 30+ disposals in six of Essendon’s last eight matches at the MCG.

While that might make for a good combo in your same game multi, you just wouldn’t rule out Merrett kicking the first one…as he did last week.

Bet now: Dees v Dons
GOLD COAST SUNS VS PORT ADELAIDE (Sunday, 1:10pm)
1st goal - Ben King (GC) @ $8

Let’s keep this one nice and simple.

The Gold Coast Suns are playing at home and forwards such as Ben King (who’s currently second in the goal kicking at 43) are playing on their home patch.

King is averaging 2.9 goals in season 2024, and I’m happy to just back an old trusty favourite for the first goal kicker category in the Suns v Power clash.

Bet now: Suns v Port
RICHMOND VS GWS GIANTS (Sunday, 3:20pm)
1st goal - Shai Bolton (Rich) @ $

One thing to take from the Tigers (who are bottom of the ladder at the moment) is that they tend to score early before other teams go on to roll them.

We could turn this into a deep dive into what needs to happen at Tigerland, and if you’d like you’d be most welcome to DM me to discuss further.

Having said that, Shai Bolton kicked the first in the Tigers loss to Freo last week and having made the commitment to stay at Punt Road this week despite offers from other clubs, I wouldn’t rule out the number 29 for Richmond going back-to-back first goals on Sunday at the G.

Bet now: Tigers v Giants
WEST COAST EAGLES VS BRISBANE LIONS (Sunday, 4:40pm)
1st goal - Lachie Neale (BL) @ $29

Don’t fall for the “Sack the coach, win next week” trick.

It ain’t going to happen.

The Brisbane Lions are red hot, back in the eight and will head out West wanting to hack the bone for some sweet juicy percentage against the Eagles on Sunday.

Forget former Brisbane cult hero Rhys Mathieson, Lachie Neale is currently the one that’s in beast mode.

Last week he had 36 disposals, 10 clearances and three goals to his name.

He was $34 and dropped to $10 in the Brownlow betting.

Is there anything he can’t do?

Kick the first goal on Sunday and the answer will be no.

 

 

Bet now: Eagles v Lions