2024 AFL Round 17 Tips & Preview

Outside of any Anzac day clash, this could arguably be the biggest game between the Magpies and Bombers we’ve seen for the best part of 20 years.

With two points separating them in the top eight (Essendon 4th with 38, and the Pies 6th on 36) and both sides coming off thrilling and/or controversial losses last weekend she’ll be on for young and old this Friday night.

Despite the Bombers winning three of their last four and the Magpies only being able to manage two out of their last five, Collingwood opens as clear $1.48 favourite at time of publish, with Essendon $2.65 rank outsiders in the head to head betting.

Even with the fact that Essendon has only beaten teams ranked below them in the ladder (of which Collingwood currently is) the market believe that Craig McRae and his men are the better team.

Nick Daicos is proving week after week what a superstar he is, and even with his brother Josh and Beau McCreery outs for the Pies on Friday night, they should have the Bombers measure.

Should Essendon get the win in this, people will really stand up and take notice that Brad Scott and his men might be more than just lucky, however, Collingwood off a close loss and a big game, you should never write them off.

The Pies have won their last four matches at the MCG by 1-39 points, and with the $2.15 price, it’s hard to ignore.

Normal programming to resume, Collingwood to win a close one.

If the Gold Coast Suns are finally able to win as the away team, surely it’s against North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium this Saturday afternoon?

The Suns had arguably their greatest win in the clubs 14-year AFL history with a thrilling nine point win over Collingwood (at home, that goes without saying).

Gold Coast also were able to beat the Kangaroos earlier in the year at their second home ground – Darwin, when they did it to the tune of 68-points back in Round 9.

However, North Melbourne winning has been rare in recent years, what’s even rarer is the Kangaroos’ ability to win in Victoria – the Roos now infamous win over the Suns in Round 23 last season which “cost” them Harley Reid was in Hobart and their past three wins have been outside Victoria.

So, you’d think on form, the Gold Coast Suns should win, but North Melbourne have been far from easy beats in recent weeks.

With that in mind, the line that’s on offer gives the Suns a -17.5 head start, and given their away record (having failed to cover the line in their last 13 away games), I’m prepared to take the Kangas at +17.5

Saturday’s clash between Port and the Dogs at Adelaide Oval will pretty much make or break the top eight chances of both sides.

From a neutral perspective, it should be a beauty.

From a punting perspective, backing the winner in this one is a nightmare.

I couldn’t trust either side most weeks, you just don’t know which Port Adelaide or Western Bulldogs side is going to turn up.

Hence, I reckon it’s time to go with a same game multi in this game and play the hits.

First leg, Marcus Bontempelli, 30+ disposals.

The Bont has recorded 30+ disposals in three of his last four matches, and suffered a serious case of leather poisoning last week with a lazy 35 touches in the Dogs 17-point win over North.

Second leg – Mitch Georgiades to kick 2+ goals.

Georgiades has kicked 3+ in Port’s past three games and has been important up forward for the Power, he should be a multiple goal scorer at home otherwise it’ll probably be another ugly day at the office.

Third leg – Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to kick 2+ goals.

Ugle-Hagan continues to delight week after week and averaging 2+ goals in each of the Bulldogs last five games, here’s hoping the trend continues to finish us off.

I feel a lot more confident backing in this multi than picking an outright winner between these two sides.

Geelong, the $1.57 favourite to beat Hawthorn at $2.40, the game is being played at GMHBA Stadium and the Cats are eight places ahed of the Hawks on the ladder.

Makes sense don’t it?

On paper, yes, but reading into it, this game down at the Cattery could prove to be one of the more fascinating contests of Round 17.

The Cats come off a much-needed win over Essendon last weekend, but it was just Geelong’s second win in eight games and even their recent form down at Kardinina Park is two losses and one win.

For Punters, the Cats are not the reliable bet they’ve been for the good part of two decades with Geelong having lost four of their last five matches as a favourite.

In recent weeks, Hawthorn have been a much more inform team compared to the Cats, with a demolition job on West Coast at Optus Stadium, and have now won seven out of their past eight.

It’s fair to say the form line has changed since these two teams last met on Eater Monday when the Cats had a comfortable 36-point victory, and Hawthorn is an outstanding value bet.

Hawks in an “upset”.

You read it here first.

Outside of the Swans, the Blues are arguably the best team in the competition.

Long-suffering Carlton fans are starting to believe they can party like its 1995 on the last Saturday in September.

The Blues head to Homebush to take on GWS this weekend, for where it looks like the orange tsumani just might have run out of puff.

Currently sitting in 10th spot, the Giants are now in danger of breaking their finals hopes and facing the Blues despite it being at home is a daunting prospect for Adam Kingsley and his men.

Last weekend’s 16-point loss to the Crows at Adelaide Oval was more than disappointing resulting in the Giants making it six losses in their past eight games.

Numbers wise, things look a bit flat over at the Giants, failing to score more than 79 poins in the past eight weeks and given the Blues ability to keep sides to 75 points or under in their past five games it could be a tough night.

Carlton, fresh from thumping the Tigers last weekend and their superstar Patrick Cripps getting just a a lazy 40 disposals that afternoon look scary. The scariest the Blues have looked in years.

Expect another solid performance from Carlton and Cripps on Saturday night and hopefully, this Same Game Multi should get the job done.

Fresh from their best victory in years, Freo will be up and about having beaten Sydney at the SCG and facing the struggling injury-plagued Tigers at Optus Stadium on Saturday night should be seen as a percentage booster.

Currently sitting third on the ladder, Freo should make the most of the 17th-placed Richmond, like they did when the two sides met back in Round 8 at the MCG when the Dockers cruised home to a 54-point win.

It’s fair to say that Freo is flying under the radar.

The Dockers have now won six of their past seven games and with the likes of Caleb Serong (another sneaky brownlow cahance) and Andrew Brayshaw tearing it up in the midfiled, Freo on their day can beat anyone, as was proven last week.

Injuries and generational change is the main focus of Richmond’s 2024 season and despite the Tigers ability to remain competitive in most games, this is looking like it’ll be a long trip and tough night at the office for Adem Yze and his men.

The Dockers are $1.08 favourites with the line giving them a -43.5 head start, but the 60+ in the margins market is one of the better value bets in this clash.

Many pundits now have the Demons missing the eight all together, so they’ll want to make the most of playing the lowly West Coast Eagles at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.

Melbourne has been on the way down for a while, having lost five of their last seven, and one of those losses was when the Harley Reid show was in full flight back in Round 10 at Optus Stadium.

The biggest problem Melbourne has is their ability to play four full quarters (and kick straight).

The Dees led for most of their game against Brisbane last Friday night at the Gabba, but allowed the Lions to make a comeback in the last quarter.

West Coast appeared to be in a little Harley Reid-inspired purple patch when these two teams last met, but have gone on to lose their past five matches since and their performance against Hawthorn at home last week was grim – and that’s just being kind.

One thing to look forward to in this game is that it will be Harley Reid’s first hitout on the hallowed turf of the MCG, I’ve put him down to kick a goal in the same game multi and Melbourne to cover the -33.5 line on offer, surely this gets up!

Good luck to St Kilda who have the pleasure of facing the Sydney Swans coming off just their second loss of the season.

The Swans will be on the rebound and fair to say will want to remind the competition that they are the Winx of season 2024, which ironic given their coach is the Horse.

Both the Saints and Swans go into this game having come off close losses last weekend and don’t rule out a bit of classic RossBall™ being implemented, but the Swans should kick away and get back to the business of banking the four points.

Not much to be said or written here, Sydney 25+ for a bit of value.

The Brisbane Lions are making a charge towards September, fresh from some big wins, they can not only enjoy being back in the top eight but get back into the top four – backing it up with another home game, this time against the Adelaide Crows.

Making it four in a row after coming back from 24 points down against the Dees in the third quarter, the Lions charged home to a win that showed the footy world that Chris Fagan and his men are not quite done yet.

Adelaide heads to the Gabba fresh from an upset win over the Giants at home, but I highly doubt they’ll be able to back it up this Sunday twilight.

When these two last met, it was a thrilling 90-90 draw in Round 9, but I expect the Lions to be ruthless on Sunday.

It’s been a big week off the field at Brisbane as well with Charlie Cameron and Jarrod Berry all signing deals to stay at the club.

Expect the pair to have a day out – Charlie to kick three plus against his old side ensuring some half decent royalties the estate of John Denver has been missing out a bit on in recent weeks and Berry to prove his worth getting 20 disposals and the Lions to cover the line.

That sounds like a same-game multi, and you’d be right.

The details are up top.