We’ve already taken a deep dive into Game I of the 2024 State of Origin Series on the poddy this week, so tune in there for all the key talking points. I’m doubling down on a few thoughts in today’s blog to pick out some deciding factors and try scorer tips for each state.
Don’t forget Game II of the Women’s State of Origin Series kicks off on Thursday night too! We cashed in on a few try scorer picks in the first game and there’s plenty of value to be found again this week.
NSW Blues
Michael Maguire has been forced to navigate an injury crisis in his first series in charge but this new-look Blues squad still has ‘Madge’s’ fingerprints all over it.
A hard working, defensive minded forward pack and a host of hard running, productive outside backs gives us some clues as to how Maguire wants to approach Origin football in this one. We’ve seen NSW try and emulate the Penrith Panthers gameplan in previous years but this squad in particular profiles nicely to do so.
If the back five of James Tedesco, Brian To’o, Zac Lomax, Stephen Crichton and Joseph Sua’ali’i can consistently carry the Blues out of trouble it will go a long way to complementing a smaller, more mobile NSW forward pack that will front load their efforts in defence.
The width of service from Reece Robson will allow the Blues to play flat and fast in yardage and get the most out of their ball carriers on either edge. The trending double-lead shape is an appealing one for Sua’ali’i and Angus Crichton on the left, particularly given how the spaces around Daly Cherry-Evans and Valentine Holmes have been a target for NSW in recent series.
On the other side of the field, Madge has stacked a host of aerial targets that should be a feature of the Blues good-ball attack. Pitching one of Olakau’atu, Stephen Crichton or Lomax over the top of Tom Dearden is an action I’m expecting to see on Wednesday night.
Try scorer tips: Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i ($4.20), Stephen Crichton ($3.35), Haumole Olakau’atu ($5.80)
Qld Maroons
Billy Slater wasn’t without a few selection headaches himself but for the most part, this Maroons squad picks itself.
Slater appears to be doubling down on the surplus of attacking talent available to QLD right now and I’m expecting a more expansive approach from the Maroons on Wednesday night. A team with Reece Walsh at fullback will always roll the dice in attack and back themselves to defend any errors they make along the way.
The Maroons have genuine ballplayers across the park to play edge-to-edge and fire multiple shots in a set. Getting Walsh at the three-in defender on either tramline will be a regular feature of QLD’s attack and whenever the Blues slide too early from the middle, Ben Hunt or Harry Grant will split them beside the ruck.
Batting back kicks in good-ball has become a trademark of the Maroons attack in recent years (so much so that I’ve tipped the Blues to do the same this week) and both QLD edges have aerial threats for Cherry-Evans to target.
Tom Dearden laying on the left edge and then doubling up down the short side is another action I’m looking out for. He loves to get over the advantage line and ballplay right at the defence or challenge the line himself.
Try scorers: Tom Dearden ($4.60), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($2.75), Murray Taulagi ($2.50)
Women’s State of Origin Game II – Deciding Factors
NSW Sky Blues
The NSW Sky Blues back five of Emma Tonnegato, Jaime Chapman, Jess Sergis, Isabelle Kelly and Tiana Penitani combined for more than 650 metres in Game I. Their ability to attack from anywhere on the field shocked Queensland early and allowed NSW to defend their way to full time.
Clean ball movement through the middle of the field was another key element of NSW’s attack to kickoff the series and will be a feature again. Olivia Kernick, Keeley Davis and Olivia Higgins all gave the Sky Blues different looks around the ruck to generate positive match ups in yardage and punch holes in QLD’s middle defence.
I’m tipping NSW to fire a few shots down their right edge in this one to test a new-look Maroons defensive unit. Backrower Kezie Apps runs a killer line off her half while Sergis is one of the strongest ball carriers in the Women’s game out in the centres. Look for Rachael Pearson to hit her backrower short or give Sergis early ball against her opposite number.
Try scorers: Kezie Apps ($5.50), Jess Sergis ($3.20)
QLD Maroons
The Maroons weren’t far off in the series opener and have made a few tweaks leading into Thursday night’s must-win Game II.
QLD and NRLW veteran playmaker Ali Brigginshaw returns to her preferred halfback position and will immediately improve the Maroons good-ball attack. She counts numbers and manipulates defenders better than anyone in the Women’s game and can help to put fullback Tamika Upton into positive involvements up the field.
Closer to the ruck, I’m tipping Emma Manzelmann to play an increased role off the bench after an impressive 20 minute cameo in Game I. Her leg speed and craft from behind the ruck is a real threat once fatigue sets in and her ability to stress and compress the defence can open up the spaces out wide.
Try scorers: Tamika Upton ($2.55), Julia Robinson ($2.80), Emma Manzelmann ($9.50)