State Of Origin Deciding Factors

State Of Origin Deciding Factors

The Joseph Sua’ali’i incident severely disrupted any game plans New South Wales and Queensland hoped to employ in the 2024 Men’s series opener.

That being said, we still got glimpses of the style of footy both Michael Maguire and Billy Slater want to play, moving forward.

In the Women’s Origin series, the Maroons made some winning changes to their lineup for Game 2 while the Sky Blues will still be confident they have a winning formula between a productive backline and a range of ballplayers through the middle of the field.

Let’s take a look at a few deciding factors for each state leading into Game 2 this Wednesday night and Game 3 for the girls on Thursday.

Men’s State of Origin: Game II (Wednesday)

New South Wales Blues

From the outside looking in, Michael Maguire appeared to double down on a defensive-minded approach for Game 1 given the host of key attacking players unavailable.

With a few more points across the Blues lineup this time around though, NSW profile well to improve on all the things they did right in the series opener.

Spearheaded by Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o and Zac Lomax, the Blues are well equipped to work cleanly out of yardage.

They had no trouble carrying the ball out of their own end in Game I even while down to 12 men and that direct, one-out approach looks set to continue on Wednesday night.

When NSW get near or over halfway however, we can expect a few more different looks from them in attack.

The variety of ballplayers across the park (Cameron Murray, Isaah Yeo, Jake Trbojevic, Connor Watson) can allow NSW to play coast-to-coast and stress Queensland’s defence in yardage.

The involvements of Mitchell Moses will also be crucial; he can create scoring chances ahead of time by targeting certain defenders or spots on the field, particularly around the right tram line.

A Liam Martin quick play-the-ball into either a Moses short side raid or a long, left-edge shift to Jarome Luai and Latrell Mitchell should be a feature of the Blues attack in this one.

From a betting perspective, the spaces around Valentine Holmes and Daly Cherry-Evans will be a target for NSW’s attack through Mitchell especially.

  • Suggested bets: Latrell Mitchell ATS, Brian To’o ATS, NSW 1-12

Queensland Maroons

With Game I in the bank and at worst a decider at Suncorp Stadium awaiting, Billy Slater can put the ball in NSW’s court on Wednesday night.

The inclusion of defensive workers like Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell over the attacking output of guys like Selwyn Cobbo and J’Maine Hopgood hints towards the style of footy QLD will play in this one.

As they’ve made a habit of doing throughout Origin history, the Maroons can kick to the corners, embrace the grind and set this one up early to win it late.

Knowing NSW need the win this week, QLD only need to take the Blues into deep water, apply defensive pressure to what has to be an expansive attack and wait for NSW to crack.

The long kicking game of Daly Cherry-Evans will look to nullify NSW’s productive back three on kick returns while in good-ball, his ability to isolate Xavier Coates over the top of Brian To’o should be a feature of QLD’s attack.

The work of Harry Grant and Ben Hunt in the lead up to any Maroons attacking movement will also be crucial.

Both can take their chances to run behind quick play-the-balls or fold the defensive line towards the ball in preparation for a shift.

QLD boast big bodies through the middle and profile well to flood the ruck and play the long game in the territory battle.

  • Suggested bets: Jeremiah Nanai ATS, Valentine Holmes ATS

Women’s State of Origin: Game III (Thursday)

New South Wales Sky Blues

The Sky Blues dominated Game 1 thanks to the work of their back five in yardage but QLD made some clever adjustments for Game 2 – namely the kicking game of Ali Brigginshaw – to somewhat negate that productivity in Newcastle.

NSW still profile well to work cleanly out of their own end but it’s the creative involvements of their middle forwards that can be the difference on Thursday night.

A dummy-half rotation of Olivia Higgins and Keeley Davis provides NSW with two genuine ballplayers and running threats behind the ruck while Olivia Kernick has relished a distributing role at lock-forward.

Look for the Sky Blues to earn their share of field position and set up for a shift to the left edge through Corban Baxter and Isabelle Kelly in good-ball.

  • Suggested bets: Isabelle Kelly ATS, NSW 1-12

Queensland Maroons

Star fullback Tamika Upton has been relatively quiet by her standards this series but the stage is set for a deciding performance on Thursday night.

The Maroons prop rotation of Jessika Elliston, Shannon Mato and Chelsea Lenarduzzi has the ability to break the game open for Upton to strike on the following play.

There are points between her and Tarryn Aiken on the left edge if QLD can generate some momentum in yardage and hit the right spots on the field before shifting.

If there’s a hint of ruck speed or some late second-phase play, look for Upton to get on the ball on the edges.

Ali Brigginshaw is the most experienced playmaker in the NRLW but doesn’t need to play a starring role in this one.

Her fifth tackle options will be crucial in the yardage battle but in good-ball Brigginshaw can be the conductor while Upton, Aiken & Co feature in the highlight reels.

  • Suggested bets: Tamika Upton ATS, Tarryn Aiken ATS