2024 State Of Origin Game 2 Tips & Preview

2024 State Of Origin Game 2 Tips & Preview

Following a series opening blowout in Sydney, where Queensland walked in 38-10 following Joseph Suaalii’s seventh minute send off, the series heads to Melbourne and the historic MCG.

It is do-or-die for New South Wales, with Michael Maguire’s team needing a win to send the series to a Suncorp decider, while Queensland will be hoping to put it to bed in Melbourne and leave the third game to serve as a coronation for further Queensland glory.

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons (Wednesday June 26, 8:05pm, MCG)

It is now or never for NSW and new coach Michael Maguire.

If they go down 2-0, it is hard to see Maguire being retained for next season, he has picked a team in his image and he will swing on that.

There have been plenty of changes made to the Blues team for Origin II. Some necessary. Some not. Some forced. Some not. There were plenty of non-changes too that should have been made.

Dylan Edwards returns to make his debut in place of James Tedesco, Maguire put his ego to one side to bring in Latrell Mitchell at centre, Nicho Hynes is arguably unlucky but it was no surprise when Mitchell Moses was named to replace him.

Cameron Murray returns from injury and replaces Cameron McInnes and Connor Watson was a stunning selection on the bench, coming in for Hudson Young when most expected Matt Burton to be named.

While most of the changes are positive, the balance of the pack and bench remain an issue with an over-indexing of hardworking locks and an underservicing of impact props.

Despite it being a killer in the opener, Maguire has again ignored the need for a back on the bench.

Luckily for the Blues, Billy Slater has astonishingly decided to join him with no genuine back on the bench, mysteriously dropping Selwyn Cobbo and replacing him with Kurt Capewell, it would not be a surprise if Dane Gagai does come in for Capewell.

Despite being the form backrower of the premiership, David Fifita was overlooked for Felise Kaufusi when J’maine Hopegood was ruled out.

The desperation of this situation really puts the Blues in a great spot.

Since 2010, there have been eight occasions when a game one loser has attempted to level the series either at home or on neutral ground and they have won on seven occasions.

Teams off a heavy defeat tend to bounce back in Origin too with those off a loss of 24 or more covering five of seven over the last decade.

New South Wales are 4-2 in neutral games over the last decade and in the three game twos on neutral territory this century, the loser of the opener has got the chocolates.

This one is the Blues to lose.

Expect plenty of points, at least relative to typical Origins, in this one too.

In the last six neutral games, there have been at least 32 points with four of the six going 44 or more.

Ashley Klein is a big over ref at club level and the last six Origins he has refereed, the games have all hit at least 34 points.

Mitchell Moses plays just his fourth Origin but he is absolutely the key for the Blues.

New South Wales cannot win without a great long kicking game and Moses is the best long kicker in the NRL outside of Nathan Cleary, plus he is a running threat and has few real dangers among teammates if the Blues do win.

Latrell Mitchell is in great tryscoring form with South Sydney, scoring five tries in his five games since returning from suspension, he also has six tries in seven Origin appearances.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has a try in every Origin appearance he has made and comes off a sublime hat-trick in the opener.

Stephen Crichton has just one Origin try in seven appearances but is a big-game performer and is in great tryscoring form for the Bulldogs.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: New South Wales ($1.90)
  • Best Total: Over 37.5 ($1.90)
  • Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses ($10.00)
  • Tryscorer: Latrell Mitchell ($12.50 First, $2.65 Anytime)
  • SGM: Latrell Mitchell Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Stephen Crichton Try ($21.94)