All eyes will be on team lists this week as we wait to see which Origin players will backup with the two points important in most games with just six points separating fourth and 14th on the ladder creating another highly compelling round.
It kicks off with top six teams Canterbury and Cronulla squaring off and features another all-Top 8 clash on Sunday when Penrith host North Queensland while the Eels will be looking to climb off the bottom of the ladder when they travel to Newcastle on Saturday evening to meet the Knights.
The opening match of Round 17 is one of the more difficult betting games but there does appear to be a small edge with Canterbury.
They get a host of players back this week including, most likely, Stephen Crichton.
They have a tremendous record at Accor, covering six of their last eight, going 5-1 against the spread getting a start of at least a try.
There is no knock on the Sharks, particularly with no Origin players on duty, but Canterbury have the upside to win a matchup they have lost in recent years.
Jeral Skelton was a beast last week and has scored in his last two NRL games, Jacob Kiraz has four tries in his last seven games, while the Bulldogs concede nearly 60% of their tries down their right so Ronaldo Mulitalo is a must-include.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury +4.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury Win ($2.40)
- Tryscorer: Jeral Skelton ($10 First, $2.02 Anytime)
- SGM: Jeral Skelton Try/Jacob Kiraz Try/Ronaldo Mulitalo Try ($11.31)
There are few better bets in the NRL than being on a team that was completely humiliated last start and there is little doubt that the Warriors were embarrassed beyond description last week, going down 66-6 to the Titans.
Since 2008, teams who conceded 60 or more points the week prior are 18-3 against the spread and home underdogs off conceding 50 or more cover at a clip of 77%.
The Warriors have covered eight of 10 off conceding 50-plus and they have covered four of six as an underdog at Mt Smart.
Brisbane are also highly unlikely to have any of their Origin stars back up, which makes the Warriors a great value bet.
Mitch Barnett has scored in his last two and his hard-running will take him a long way against the Broncos.
Dallin Watene-Zeleniak has six tries in his last four games against the Warriors and Deine Mariner has 12 tries in 12 games this season.
Recommended Bets
- Best: New Zealand +3.5 ($1.96)
- Next: New Zealand 13+ ($5.25)
- Tryscorer: Mitch Barnett ($26 First, $4.40 Anytime)
- SGM: Mitch Barnett Try/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try/Deine Mariner Try ($12.36)
Parramatta have fallen to last on the ladder and given how poor they have been most of the year, it is not an unjustified position.
It is hard to see them improving on their record this week.
Coach Trent Barrett ranks as one of the worst ever head coaches, going 13-48 in his last 61 games.
The Eels have also covered just one of their last 11 road games and just two of their last 14 evening matches, the Knights have covered eight of 13 at home and 11 of 17 off scoring 18 or more.
Teams who perform well against Penrith tend to carry their form over too with those off scoring 18 against the Panthers in the last four years 18-5 against the spread the last four seasons, Newcastle are exceptionally good value in this.
Fletcher Sharpe has scored in both his top grade appearances, Enari Tuala matches up on statue Maika Sivo and is a must-include and the Eels are poor defensively on their left so Dane Gagai looks a likely play.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle Win ($1.82)
- Next: Newcastle 13+ ($3.60)
- Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($12 First, $2.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try/Enari Tuala Try/Dane Gagai Try ($13.24)
Canberra are an outstanding bounceback team and with an exceptional record at AAMI Park they can be bet at the big line though it would be a shock if the Storm were to drop this game.
The Raiders are a perfect 9-0 against the spread the last four seasons after conceding 40 or more points in a match.
They have also remarkably won five of their last six at AAMI Park, with an 8-2 cover record when an interstate underdog of 12.5 or more, this number looks a little on the large side.
Melbourne have just two wins of more than 14 all season – and both were against bottom four teams.
Xavier Savage has eight tries this year and matches up on the defensively poor Will Warbrick.
Warbrick has been very good of late though with ball in hand, scoring in four of his last six matches and Ryan Papenhuyzen has 54 tries in 63 starts in the NRL so is a must-include every week.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra +15.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 1-12 ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Xavier Savage ($13 First, $2.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Xavier Savage Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Will Warbrick Try ($6.25)
The Dragons have been underestimated all year and look a good value bet as an underdog at home to the lightly-travelled Dolphins.
The Dolphins have won the last two meetings between the two but both of those were in Queensland.
The Dragons won 38-12 when they met at Kogarah last year and the Dragons have covered 12 of 18 at the venue, holding a 9-3 record against the spread off a loss at Kogarah while they have covered 38 of their last 60 in NSW.
It is surprising they are big underdogs though against a team who has played precious-little in Sydney.
Ben Hunt will need to backup but if he does the Dragons are a class play, the Cowboys are dreadful defensively down their left and Zac Lomax is the Dragons’ top tryscorer this year, while Leilua has two tries in his four games since returning from injury.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +1.5 ($1.96)
- Next: St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3.25)
- Tryscorer: Zac Lomax ($8.50 First, $1.67 Anytime)
- SGM: Zac Lomax Try/Luciano Leilua Try ($7.48)
Penrith look one of the better bets of the round with both teams having a host of Origin players that will need to back up.
Assuming all do – with the exception of Jeremiah Nanai, who was not named – then Penrith look a very strong play having conceded just 18 against Newcastle last start and the Panthers are 19-5 against the spread off conceding 18 or more points and have also covered 24 of 35 games at home.
The Cowboys are poor travellers, going 11-18 against the spread when interstate while they have covered just 17 of 45 against Top 8 teams.
Not to mention North Queensland have been held scoreless in two of their last four at Penrith Stadium.
Izack Tago has 28 tries in 56 games across the last three seasons, Turuva has 11 tries in his 13 games this season and Brian To’o has four tries in his last two matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -11.5 ($1.90)
- Next: North Queensland Exact Total Points 10 or Less ($2.90)
- Tryscorer: Izack Tago ($12 First, $2.30 Anytime)
- SGM: Izack Tago Try/Sunia Turuva Try/Brian To’o Try ($5.83)
Round 17 finishes off with one of the perceived mismatches of the round with the Roosters hosting the Tigers.
The Tigers have been very impressive winning their last two and have really shown that the club is on the right path but that is unlikely to help them this week against a team that has regularly put them to the sword.
Trent Robinson’s men have won 21 of the last 23 clashes and since 2008 and are 22-3 against the spread when playing the Tigers, plus the last four wins have all been by at least 22.
There is a big watch on the four Roosters returning from Origin but all being equal, the Chooks should run riot here.
Angus Crichton is in tremendous tryscoring form with seven tries in his last six games.
Tupou has 19 tries in 14 games against the Tigers, failing to score just twice and Sitili Tupouniua has been named to play in the centres and likely square off with defensive liability Brent Naden.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Sydney Roosters -13.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Sydney Roosters 30+ ($4.25)
- Tryscorer: Angus Crichton ($14 First, $2.30 Anytime)
- SGM: Angus Crichton Try/Daniel Tupou Try/Sitili Tupouniua Try ($10.62)