After two bye-affected weeks, we have a full slate of games for Round 15 with some compelling affairs.
Nicho Hynes will need a big performance against the Dolphins to fend off a challenge from Mitchell Moses for the Blues No.7 with Moses himself trying to kickstart the Eels, who face a tough matchup at home against the Sydney Roosters.
The Tigers are anchored to the bottom of the table and will need a big showing against the Titans to help their cause against a third-straight wooden spoon.
The Dolphins continue to be wildly underrated and despite this being a clash between two Top 4 teams, Wayne Bennett’s team are being given little hope.
That is misguided though, the Sharks are likely to be in a letdown spot here after really turning it on in Brisbane to shock the Broncos after two very poor losses.
The Sharks still have plenty to prove against elite teams, covering just five of 16 against Top 5 teams.
The Dolphins have covered 10 of 16 getting a start of eight or more points and they are 9-4 against the spread off conceding 26-plus, and they will be prepared for this off a bye while the Sharks on a five-day turnaround, the plus is the bet.
The Hammer has eight tries in seven games this year and comes off an Origin hat-trick.
Siosifa Talakai has scored in four of his last six and is starting now against the poor Dolphins right edge defence.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +9.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins Win ($3.35)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($10 First, $1.94 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Siosifa Talakai Try ($6.49)
North Queensland are a complete and utter mess, they have a 7-7 record but in their last nine they are 3-6 with two of those wins coming against the bottom two teams.
They are coming off conceding 42 at home to the Warriors and have kept teams under 20 just twice all season.
26.64 points allowed per game is the worst of any team outside of the Top 4.
Canberra are hardly world beaters but they are digging in every game and that has got them up to fifth on the ladder.
They have won three of their last four and two of those came against teams now inside the Top 8.
The Raiders have covered five of their last six off a bye while the Cowboys are 16-28 against the spread against Top 8 teams while they have covered just 10 of 28 interstate.
Matt Timoko gets a good matchup against defensive liability Val Holmes. Hudson Young has four tries in his last three games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra -2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canberra 13+ ($3.25)
- Tryscorer: Matt Timoko ($16 First, $2.70 Anytime)
- SGM: Matt Timoko Try/Hudson Young Try ($6.37)
South Sydney are riding high after back-to-back wins but victories over Parramatta and Gold Coast are no preparation for Brisbane, particularly a Broncos team that really needs a win.
The Broncos have dropped to eighth on the ladder on the back of losses to the Titans and the Sharks and there is some resemblance to Souths last year – the second premiership favourites who fell into a rut and couldn’t get out of it.
The Broncos need this and this is a good spot for them, having covered four of five against Souths and they bounce back well with a 17-10 cover rate off a double digit loss and have covered seven of nine as an interstate favourite.
Back the Broncos.
Mitchell took on a greater ownership of the team last week and it led to him scoring first and he has six tries in his last four matches against the Broncos.
Mariner has 10 tries in 11 games in 2024, while Jock Madden is a jackrabbit who backs up well and looks big value.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Brisbane -4.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Brisbane 13+ ($2.90)
- Tryscorer: Latrell Mitchell ($14 First, $2.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Latrell Mitchell Try/Deine Mariner Try/Jock Madden Try ($19.52)
Benji Marshall and the Tigers are getting blasted from all sides right now as the club is back in last spot – following two wooden spoons – on the back of eight straight losses.
There is talk that the cream of the Tigers young talent wants to leave with debutant coach Marshall under pressure and are fresh off a 56-14 loss to the Dragons.
Factor all that in and the Tigers are one of the better bets in Round 15.
Teams coming off a humiliation tend to perform well and the Tigers have been in this spot plenty of times before and have usually responded.
Teams off conceding 56-plus are 32-12 against the spread since 2008 while home underdogs off conceding 50-plus cover at 76%.
With the Tigers covering five of their last six as an underdog at Leichhardt and the Titans covering just one of six as an interstate favourite, the Tigers and the points are a great bet.
AKP is the fastest player in the NRL and he has nine tries in his last six games, Lobb is a great target with his height and scored his debut NRL try last week and Brent Naden is one of the Tigers’ more potent outside backs.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +4 ($1.90)
- Next: Wests Tigers Win ($2.35)
- Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($7.50 First, $1.53 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Alex Lobb Try/Brent Naden Try($9.02)
New Zealand have firmed significantly in this match but it is not all that apparent as to why.
Melbourne have completely dominated the Warriors over the last decade, winning 15 straight.
The Storm last lost to New Zealand in 2015 and in seven of the last eight meetings, the Storm have scored 30-plus.
Melbourne are still missing two of their biggest names with Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cameron Munster still sidelined but this is a nice spot for them.
Holding a 25-14 record against the spread against teams outside of the Top 8 while they are 16-9 against the number off scoring 36-plus.
The Warriors have covered just six of 18 off a double digit win. Suspect the market has this one wrong.
Hughes has seven tries in 10 games against the Warriors and DWZ has 31 tries in 32 games across the last two seasons.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 1-12 ($3.05)
- Tryscorer: Jahrome Hughes ($21 First, $3.70 Anytime)
- SGM: Jahrome Hughes Try/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try ($6.42)
The Eels and the Roosters have a long history of high scoring matches and this clash gives every indication that this will be a try-fest.
Dating back to 2008, the over is 17-5 when the Eels and Chooks square off.
The Roosters are miles clear with the best attack this year, averaging 29.69 points per game, while the Eels rank third worst in defence, conceding 28.92 points per game.
It is a matchup that looks made for a Roosters carve up.
The over has hit in five straight Roosters games away from Allianz while it is 29-12 when the Eels are off a loss and 25-11 when they are an underdog, this game looks like it could get a little wild.
Maika Sivo is a very poor defender so I’ll be looking at Young and Manu to score.
Young has nine tries in 10 games this year while Manu has 10 tries this year and Walker has scored twice in five games against the Eels.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 51.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Exact Total Points: 61+ ($3.70)
- Tryscorer: Joey Manu ($13 First, $2.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Joey Manu Try/Dom Young Try/Sam Walker Try ($11.86)
The Dragons are being shown almost no respect with the betting in this game, making them an excellent play this week to not only cover but win big.
Shane Flanagan’s team has won eight of the last 11 clashes with the Sea Eagles, covering five of the last six.
When the teams met in Round 4, the Dragons upset the Eagles 20-12.
This is a big spot for the Dragons, underdogs off scoring 56-plus cover at 73%.
The Dragons have also got a splendid betting record when playing in NSW, going 38-21 against the spread.
Manly have covered just six of 18 off conceding 32-plus.
The money has come for the Dragons and they look an outstanding bet.
Lomax enters this off a hat-trick and now has 10 tries in 12 games and Flanagan has four tries in 13 games this season and is an over-the-odds try sneak.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +5.5 ($1.90)
- Next: St George Illawarra 13+ ($5.60)
- Tryscorer: Zac Lomax ($9.50 First, $1.85 Anytime)
- SGM: Zac Lomax Try/Kyle Flanagan Try ($6.98)
Newcastle look to be a tad underrated in the final match of Round 15, this is a super spot for the Knights.
They have covered eight of their last 12 at home but most notably they have covered six straight as a home underdog.
In their last 13 day/twilight games, the Knights have covered 11 of 13.
Penrith, of course, need to be respected but it is noteworthy that they are just 15-14 against the spread when a double digit road favourite.
Penrith concede most of their tries down the right so Bradman Best looks a great hope of scoring, Paul Alamoti has four tries in seven games this year.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle +10.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Penrith 1-12 ($3.00)
- Tryscorer: Bradman ]Best ($19 First, $3.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Bradman Best Try/Paul Alamoti Try ($9.80)