After a wild State of Origin series opener on Wednesday night, we are back to club football and Round 14 of the regular season.
Some big names will be missing this week including Reece Walsh and Nicho Hynes while two Top 8 clashes cap another great round of footy as we reach the halfway mark of the season.
St George Illawarra had three players on Origin duty but it is expected Ben Hunt, Zac Lomax and Jaydn Su’A all will play.
That will lead to a major reshuffle for the Dragons but off an impressive win and against the worst team in the premiership on an eight-game losing streak, they look very hard to beat.
The Tigers had nobody on Origin duty but are a complete mess with David Klemmer and Isaiah Papalii the latest to be sidelined, plus Charlie Staines in the centres says everything that needs to be said.
The Dragons have won four of the last five meetings and they have a tremendous recent record at Wollongong, covering 13 of 17 at the venue.
It is noteworthy that the Tigers are 7-0 against the spread under Chris Butler but underdogs of more than a converted try off a bye cover at just 39%, the Dragons are entitled to win this and win big.
Sloan has eight tries this year with six of those coming against teams outside of the Top 8.
Flanagan scored the last time he played the Tigers and gets a positive matchup running at Jayden Sullivan.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra -7.5 ($1.85)
- Next: St George Illawarra 13+ ($2.45)
- Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($8.50 First, $1.88 Anytime)
- SGM: St George Illawarra Win/Tyrell Sloan Try/Kyle Flanagan Try ($7.34)
It is more than a little surprising that given the absence of so many star players, the Titans are favoured over the Rabbitohs in this bottom four clash.
Jayden Campbell is a potential in for the Titans while Phillip Sami, Kieran Foran and Jojo Fifita return and the club has covered eight straight but they have rarely been favoured over that time.
The Titans were very impressive rolling the Broncos but this South Sydney team might have a small run coming up.
They are much better with Latrell at fullback and a Walker/Wighton halves combination, Keaon Koloamatangi has also been much better since moving into the middle.
Souths have won eight straight against Gold Coast, covering the last five.
However the underdog covers at 60% when two bottom nine teams play and teams off a double digit win prior to a bye cover at 67%, so I’m all-in Souths.
Walker has five tries in nine games against the Titans.
Alex Johnston is now tied for second on the all-time tryscoring list and he has hattricks in his last two against the Titans and Alofiana Khan-Pereira has 29 tries in 32 NRL games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: South Sydney +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: South Sydney 13+ ($4.75)
- Tryscorer: Cody Walker Try ($19 First, $2.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Cody Walker Try/Alex Johnston Try/Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try ($6.62)
North Queensland are awful favourites.
They have failed to cover seven straight when the elect in betting while they are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 when the popular pick.
Combine that with six players needing to backup from Origin and a 1-7 cover record in their last eight in Queensland, they have the look of a team to be taken on this week.
The Warriors have won seven of the last 10 against the Cowboys and underdogs cover at 60% when two bottom nine teams play, the Warriors are overs.
The Cowboys are weak up the middle and Fonua-Blake is the best tryscoring prop in the game with 14 in his last 37 games.
Ford runs hard and runs a good line and that will expose horrid defender Jeremiah Nanai.
Recommended Bets
- Best: New Zealand +3.5 ($1.96)
- Next: New Zealand Win ($2.35)
- Tryscorer: Addin Fonua-Blake ($21 First, $3.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Addin Fonua-Blake Try/Jackson Ford Try ($17.33)
Nicho Hynes was not named by Craig Fitzgibbon and that put the Sharks in an incredibly vulnerable position.
The loss of Reece Walsh for the Broncos partially offsets that while we will likely need to wait until kickoff to get the status of the other three Broncos representatives.
Assuming all play as expected, the Broncos do look a more than handy bet laying less than a try.
The Broncos have won nine of the last 11 against the Sharks and they have covered 18 of 23 at Suncorp off a loss and 10 of 13 at the ground off conceding 30-plus.
Cronulla have been poor the last two weeks and have covered just four of 15 against teams ranked fifth or higher.
Mam has 31 tries in 49 games and is the fastest half in the game, Mariner has 10 tries in 10 games in 2024 and Cobbo has five tries in his last six games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Brisbane -4 ($1.90)
- Next: Brisbane -3.5/Over 46.5 ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Ezra Mam ($12 First, $2.25 Anytime)
- SGM: Ezra Mam Try/Deine Mariner Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try ($8.59)
There are plenty of points forecast when the Storm host the Knights at AAMI Park on Sunday afternoon and most of those points will be coming from Melbourne.
The Storm are a huge over team when playing at home, the over hitting in 21 of their last 34 at AAMI.
In their last nine against teams outside of the Top 4 at AAMI, the Storm have topped 30 in six of those.
The over is 13-2 when the Storm play a day game and it has hit in seven of the last 11 Storm-Knights clashes.
The over is also 3-1 when the Knights are an interstate underdog of at least two converted tries.
The Knights are vulnerable on their right and Blore is a hard runner while Katoa has scored in three straight and has six tries in his last eight games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 47.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Exact Total Points Melbourne: 41+ ($3.70)
- Tryscorer: Shawn Blore ($26 First, $4.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Melbourne Win/Shawn Blore Try/Eliesa Katoa Try ($10.96)
The situation for Penrith could not be any better this week, both off a loss and in a revenge situation against a team that beat them just nine weeks earlier.
The Panthers had won eight straight against the Sea Eagles before that loss and are 15-3 against the spread off a loss while they have covered six of seven off a double digit loss.
The Panthers are 23-11 against the spread at home and have covered 10 of 12 at home when favoured by less than 10 and Manly have covered just eight of 19 when an underdog of 8.5 or more points.
Paul Alamoti has four tries in six games this year and has crossed in his last two and Izack Tago has five tries this year and looks to be back to full health.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -8.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Penrith 13+ ($2.35)
- Tryscorer: Paul Alamoti ($14 First, $2.95 Anytime)
- SGM: Paul Alamoti Try/Izack Tago Try ($6.85)
The betting in this game is extremely disrespectful with the Bulldogs deserving of favouritism.
Canterbury have the best redzone defence in the NRL this season and the Bulldogs have the second best defence behind only Penrith, conceding just 16.08 points per game.
They have conceded more than 16 points just once in their last seven.
However the underrated part of the Bulldogs has been their attack scoring 44 and 32 in the two games Toby Sexton has been halfback while they have topped 30 five times this year.
The Eels, by contrast, are third last on the ladder, conceding 29.50 points per game.
Moses and Gutherson are back but the betting in this is way off, the Bulldogs are one of the best of the week.
Burton has eight tries in his last eight games, Kiraz has too much speed for Sivo, who loves showing the sideline and is one of the best tryscorers of the week.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury +3.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury 13+ ($5.20)
- Tryscorer: Matt Burton ($16 First, $2.95 Anytime)
- SGM: Matt Burton Try/Jacob Kiraz Try ($7.02)