2024 AFL Round 14 Tips & Preview

We start the round with the Lions hosting the Saints at the Gabba and this tip should be pretty straight forward.

Expect Brisbane to win, but it’s a matter of how.

There’s every chance Ross Lyon will insist his Saints on playing his trademark low scoring, high defensive, press, rolling maul, bore the crap out of everyone watching game – like what we saw in their narrow win over the Gold Coast Suns last week.

Brisbane goes into this game off a 43-point win over the Bulldogs at Marvel last Friday night, Eric Hipwood played his best game in ages with a six goal haul and Lachie Neale basically took his own Sherrin to the game with 38 disposals.

Currently sitting 13th on the ladder, Brisbane has some bankable games, with a fair few of them at home and need to chalk up the Ws to have a fighting chance of playing finals after a disappointing start to the year.

While the Saints have won their past two games, no one is impressed with them and the crap that was dished up last week should be held accountable from an attacking Lions who may have found their mojo again after the bye.

I’ve gone with a same game multi in this one – The Lions 40+ at home with their attacking style of play should hold the Saints accountable and dynamic young forward Kai Lohmann who has been averaging 1.3 goals per game this season to snag a couple.

This game on Saturday arvo between the Doggies and Dockers should be a beauty, but it when it comes to tipping a winner, you can basically trust no one.

The Western Bulldogs look like contenders one week but turn into pretenders the next.

Backing Fremantle to win in Melbourne has always been a major risk since the clubs establishment in 1995.

So what does one do to find some winning value in this match.

Play the hits.

These are the games you a greatful the same game multi option is available.

Adam Treloar is getting 30+ just about every week, averaging 32.5 every week in season 2024 so bank him in for it as one leg.

As does Caleb Serong, 32.5 average. The next leg, 30+ Dispoasls.

What about old trusty Nat Fyfe? 21.5 avearge touches, still can get the job done. Let’s put the two-time Brownlow medalist down for 20+ disposals

And one can’t simply help but back the Bont for 2+ goals, he’s been a multiple scorer for the past couple of weeks and he should do it again on Saturday.

At the $8.28 on offer in a same game multi I’m happy to just ride this one out rather than stressing who to pick between these two sides

On Saturday we pay tribute to the greatest Tiger of our lifetime and the greatest big-time finals player to ever grace the footy field – Dustin Martin.

The MCG will be heaving as the Yellow and Black (and even the brown and gold) faithful celebrates the 300th game of an immortal of Punt Road and the game of Australian Rules Football.

Richmond will take some confidence heading into this match, notching up their second win of the season against the Crows last week and some would say Hawthorn are one of the more inform teams of recent weeks.

We’re sentimental types here at Neds, and if you’re asking a one-eyed Richmond fan like yours truly to write the preview, especially in a game like this there’s only one option.

I’m not having a Same Game Multi.

I’m having a Same Game Dusty.

The Tigers have covered the line for the past three weeks and with the bookies putting the Hawks as favourites and giving them a -13.5 head start, I reckon the Tigers will cover it.

Dustin Martin lives for the big occasion, the MCG packed with the Tiger Army is his natural habitat and he’ll also live up to it.

Take Dusty for 25+ disposals and to kick 2+ goals with the MCG will be going off and loving every minute of it.

Don’t expect this game to be as close or controversial a finish as the last time these two sides met.

Everyone has basically come to the conclusion that the 2024 Grand Final will be the Sydney Swans vs The field.

One of those teams who is definitely not in the field is the Adelaide Crows.

You don’t need me to describe what’s gone wrong there.

Simply read the Adelaide Advertiser or listen to Rowey on 5AA radio over there to get your Crows deep dives.

Meanwhile, Sydney just keeps on keeping on and heads into the game as $1.36 head-to-head favourites.

Sydney could do this easily and they will.

I’ve taken the Swans 40+ and The Chad (Chad Warner) to kick a couple of sausage rolls.

First things first, congrats to North Melbourne on finally chalking up a win.

No doubt there’s a spring in the step down at Arden Street in what has been a grim time for the old Shinboners.

Having said that, facing Collingwood, who despite some significant outs are just simply a bloody good footy team that just gets the job done week after week.

The Pies performance against the Dees on Kings Birthday was one of the great team efforts.

With Collingwood the shortest head to head odds of $1.10 this weekend and the line giving the Pies a -41.5 head start, no one is expecting North to go back-to-back.

With spots in the eight all over the shop and Collingwood still needing to play catch up, the Pies will want to capitalise on their opposition.

They should be winning this 40+, and with five of their last six going under the total points the margin/total points double is a nice bit of value.

They’ve saved arguably the best matchup of the round for last with the 8th placed Giants hosting fourth placed Port at the Sydney Showgrounds this Sunday twilight.

Both sides are coming off losses last weekend and the result of this game should have massive implications for where they will be on the ladder at the end of this round.

No doubt Port Adelaide would have had this game circled when the fixture came out given the Giants upset them by 23-points in the semi final at Adelaide Oval last year.

Yet again, we’re faced with two teams that are just so hard to get a read of.

One week GWS look like they are going to challenge for the flag and then lose to Hawthorn, and Port can beat Geelong away or they’ll get schooled by Carlton at home.

If you thought the Dogs v Freo was hard to tip, this could be harder.

In season 2024, GWS have proven not to be a reliable favourite, in fact, the Giants have lost their past four when favourites.

Meanwhile, one of the quirky betting stats that has come across our desk is Port can cover the line in eight of their last interstate matches following a loss, (read that sentence a couple of times, but there’s method to the madness)

I can’t for the life of me back Port Adelaide head to head and GWS can’t be trusted at the moment.

But it should be close.

My old trusty friend the tribet option comes into play to finish off Round 14.