It’s Round 13, or in your best Anthony Hudson voice, THIIRRRRTTTTEEEEN in the AFL.
There are eight games slated this weekend spanning from Thursday night and finishing with the Big Freeze on the Kings Birthday Monday.
Every game has a story, every game has something to play for, and when you think about it, the footy, she’s going a-ok in 2024.
Freo and Port have the bye, but the games this weekend should keep you humming along with footy goodness.
Can we make it a profitable one for you, the humble Neds Punter?
Read on in our AFL Round 13 Tips and Preview below.
The Crows should be thankful they’ve been drawn to play the injury plagued Tigers at home this Thursday night.
Their performance against the Hawks in Melbourne last week was disappointing to say the least and its had many critical of where Matthew Nicks and his men are at.
Having said that, they head into this game as the clear $1.12 favourites in the head to head market at time of publish and if they can’t win this one then there’s some serious questions to be asked down at West Lakes.
Richmond sits 17th on the ladder with a never ending injury list, including an ACL to up-and-coming forward Mykelti Lefau but in recent weeks have been competitive despite losing their past eight straight.
An easy selection prediction to make for this is that they’ll be missing Dustin Martin, unless things get very desperate the GOAT will not be playing his 300th game in Adelaide.
The Tigers have also covered the line two weeks running and have been rather competitive but just don’t have the manpower to maintain the pressure.
With the line giving the Crows a -36.5 head start, I wouldn’t rule out the Tigers being able to cover on Thursday night.
Stay the hell away from actually trying to tip a winner in this one and just focus in on the player markets.
Can we seriously trust the Western Bulldogs to maintain their good form of recent, probably, but then again, Brisbane are so hit and miss you just don’t know which Lions team will turn up – especially after a bye.
For this, I’ll just go a same game multi and try and get just a smidge of value.
Adam Treloar doesn’t struggle to find the Sherrin and has hit the 30+ market several times this season, so let’s take that to start with.
For goal kickers, the emergence of Kai Lohman up forward in recent weeks for the Lions has been a spark this season, kicking two in the Lions loss to the Hawks and a bag of five when they belted the Tigers few weeks back. Barring injury, he should play a vital role for the Lions for the rest of the season – he should be able to slot on through.
And when in doubt, always back the Bont for two plus.
At the $4.30 on offer, it should get the job done without stressing about who to pick to actually win this game.
The Brown and Gold team taking on the orange team in Launceston should be an absolute beauty.
The Giants are well rested after a bye and some may argue that the Hawks are one of the inform teams of the competition in recent weeks.
There has been a lot to like about Sam Mitchell and his men over the past few weeks and Hawthorn fans would be feeling rosy about their future.
Punters would also be happy with how the Hawks have been tracking, having covered the line for their last five matches.
While GWS opens the betting as $1.60 favourites at time of publish, and rightfully so, Hawthorn in Launceston remains a different prospect.
They love it down there and play some of their best footy in the apple isle.
Having won four out of their last five and currently up and about the $2.30 head-to-head looks to good value to pass, so if they are going to cause an upset, it will be down at Launceston.
Unless you barrack for the Eagles or North, why would one even bother to watch this game?
Harley Reid won’t be playing, but having said that, perhaps this might give the Kangas a chance to finally get a victory.
It could be a chance for the Roos young guns like George Wardlaw and Colby McKercher to show off a bit without being reminded they missed picking Harley, but that’s all there really is that’s keeping me interested.
From a betting perspective, the past five games between the Eagles and Kangas have been decided by 15 points or less, which makes sense given both sides have been horrible, so they are evenly matched.
Looks like I’m going with the classic tri-bet option at $2.90 in this one.
If the Suns can get a victory outside of their home ground, Saturday night against the Saints at Marvel presents as the perfect opportunity.
There’s been plenty to like about the Suns this year, especially when playing at home on both the Gold Coast and Darwin but to get any chance to finally see September action they need to be winning these matches.
Gold Coast opens the betting as $1.73 favourites at the time of publication, and despite the Saints getting the job done in Perth over the Eagles last week most have stuck a fork in season 2024 for them.
The Saints are no good against teams higher than them on the ladder for starters, having lost their past 13 and they’ve also lost their last 10 matches by teams in the top eight by 1-39 points.
It’s time for the Suns to get a victory away and they should do so this Saturday night.
Many already predict that this years Grand Final will be Sydney vs INSERT TEAM HERE.
A few weeks back, some fancied the Cats after their 7-0 start but its fair to say Geelong have had an ordinary month of football and they just can’t maintain that edge.
Sydney are fresh from a bye, playing at home and despite this being a clash between 1st and 3rd, the Swans should be able to pull rank and chalk up a decent victory over the Cats.
You may recall when these two last met in Round 16 last season, it was a draw at the SCG but I can’t see that happening.
Swans will be too good and I like the 25+ points option.
Kings birthday eve will without a doubt be the biggest clash between Essendon and Carlton for around 25-years.
The second-placed Dons taking on the fifth-placed Blues should be an absolute beauty and both sets of long-suffering supporters are loving what they are seeing so far in 2024.
Some say Essendon were unlucky against the Suns on the Gold Coast last week and the Blues were nothing short of sensational after a big win over Port at Adelaide Oval.
There’s plenty to look forward to in this match, especially the first-ever match up of brothers Harry (carlton) and Ben (Essendon) Mckay which should end the conspiracy theory that they are both the same player.
Not to mention, that these two teams are no strangers to thrilling finishes and quite frankly, hate each other.
Carlton opens the head-to-head betting as $1.56 favourites with the Bombers good value at $2.44 and the line giving the Blues a -9.5 head start.
Hopefully, the game lives up to its expectations and we get a thriller on our hands, let’s keep the tip safe and a bit of value and take the Blues 1-39.
Kings birthday at the MCG between the Dees and Magpies along with the Big Freeze is always a highlight of the year.
With Melbourne coming off a horrendous belting from Freo in Alice Springs and Collingwood going down to the Bulldogs (with a bit of a mounting injury list) it should be, as they say in the classics, a fascinating encounter.
All the pressure will be on Melbourne to show something, especially given how important this fixture is to the club and their shocking fortnight.
Everyone knows that the Demons are better than what they are currently delivering.
The past two kings birthday games have been decided by under two kicks, and one can never write off Collingwood, they are coming off a draw and a loss.
At the time of publish, the market can’t split the two, Melbourne the narrow $1.85 favourites and the Pies $1.96 head to head.
Given who might be missing from the Magpies lineup, I’m giving the Demons one more chance, but only just.