The 2024 State of Origin series kicks off with new hope for the Blues after moving on from the disappointing Brad Fittler Era.
Michael Maguire has made plenty of changes including dumping skipper James Tedesco.
Billy Slater has guided the Maroons to victory in 2022 and 2023 and will have his sights set on Queensland’s third straight series win and 15th in the last 19 years.
New beginnings do not mean a different result and unfortunately for the long-suffering Blues fans, it shapes as being more of the same in 2024.
There are few arguments that Queensland have selected a stronger team than New South Wales.
While Billy Slater left out David Fifita and the Maroons are dealing with plenty of big-name injuries, the Maroons hold advantages nearly everywhere across the park.
They have a far more aggressive and dominant pack, the halves possess a stronger kicking game, the outside backs are more reliable, the bench offers a better balance, greater coverage and a clear plan.
Maguire made some confounding calls but the two that really stand out is naming Payne Haas as the only genuine prop and leaving out the creative Api Koroisau, while starting Cam McInnes and leaving out Matt Burton are not far behind.
Queensland have few fears about playing in NSW, they are typically better prepared, they possess a better kicking game and they start series better so the Maroons are a super play.
The total in this one certainly seems far too high at 36.5 as series openers have tended to be hardfought, low-scoring affairs.
In the last 13 series openers, 11 have not surpassed 34 total points.
Normally these matches are about building combinations partly but primarily they are about winning ascendancy in the middle and not losing rather than doing everything to win.
Accor has also been a low-scoring Origin ground with 12 of the last 14 not hitting more than 34.
Reuben Cotter is an outstanding bet for Man of the Match, taking out that award in the series opener last year.
He plays big minutes and his numbers put him right in the mix, has topped 40 tackles in six of his last seven for the Cowboys while he is coming off a season-second best running performance against the Tigers.
Valentine Holmes has been an elite tryscorer at Origin level with 13 in 16 games, including four tries in six games across the last two series.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has played in four Origins and has crossed five times, emerging as Queensland’s most dangerous tryscoring weapon.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Queensland Win ($1.80)
- Best Total: Under 36.5 ($1.90)
- Man of the Match: Reuben Cotter ($17)
- Tryscorer: Valentine Holmes ($16 First, $3.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Valentine Holmes Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($9.77)