2024 State Of Origin Game 1 Selection Analysis

2024 State Of Origin Game 1 Selection Analysis

New South Wales Blues

The Michael Maguire era has officially begun and his new-look Blues squad has given us a few clues as to how NSW might approach Game I next Wednesday night.

Let’s start with the obvious ones.

Reece Robson (and potentially Cameron McInnes at different stages) have outed Api Koroisau as NSW’s preferred dummy-half option(s).

It’s a huge call to leave out one of the most crafty and influential hookers in the NRL right now, and it speaks volumes about the style of footy ‘Madge’ wants to play.

Robson’s service is elite, he fires a bullet both ways and consistently lands his passes out in front to bring teammates onto the ball.

He won’t sneak out from behind the ruck to manipulate defenders like Koroisau does but Robson will distribute smartly while taking his chances to run (career-high avg 73 running metres per game this season).

Perhaps in response to the host of creative attacking players made unavailable for NSW in Game I, Maguire appears to be doubling-down on a very simple, grinding game plan.

Robson’s pick-and-pass style paired with the selection of McInnes over Isaah Yeo in the No.13 jumper suggests we’re going to see a fairly simple yardage approach from the Blues.

With that in mind, a few of the other selections are better explained.

Jake Trbojevic literally personifies the style of footy it feels like ‘Madge’ is looking for.

He and McInnes will never stop moving through the middle of the field, tackling everything and constantly pushing up in support.

We might see a tip option in yardage every now and then, but it won’t surprise if NSW take four hit-ups to a kick in almost every other set.

Yeo and Hudson Young offer nice leg speed from the bench while Haumole Olakau’atu is the gamebreaker in good-ball.

Spencer Leniu’s selection is the other curly one but he complements the bash-and-crash style we’re expecting from the Blues in Game I and can silence the critics by nailing the simple role he’ll be given.

On paper, NSW’s backline is stacked with reliable yardage merchants and multiple genuine aerial targets in good-ball.

Dylan Edwards’ consistent form at fullback has proven too hard to ignore, although you could argue he’s replacing one of the most consistent players of the past decade in James Tedesco.

He – and the rest of NSW’s backline – are hard-working, high-effort players who run hard (g’day, Joseph Sua’ali’i) and defend well (g’day, Stephen Crichton).

We might yet see some little variations with Zac Lomax and Sua’ali’i popping up in different positions but for the most part the Blues attack profiles well to keep things simple, hit the edges, scan down short sides or kick for points on the last.

It feels like Madge and the NSW Blues will be happy to win this one with a scrappy kick try and 80 minutes of gritty, desperate defence.

Queensland Maroons

For the first time in what feels like a long time (NSW supporter, here), there’s been some healthy debate in Queensland around the makeup of Billy Slater’s squad.

David Fifita is the glaring one, the strike backrower is arguably in career form despite comments made by Slater during the week that Fifita hasn’t met the high standards he sets himself.

You’ve no doubt already seen Fifita’s career-best stats this season (on both sides of the ball) posted everywhere on social media but there’s one number demands more credit; after throwing 10 try assist passes across the first five years of his NRL career, Fifita has posted another 15 in the past 31 games.

He’s still the most destructive ball carrier in the game one-on-one but Fifita is now also a genuine pass option at or through the line.

Rhetoric of him being too ‘lazy’ or ‘one-dimensional’ makes even less sense when assessing Jeremiah Nanai – who has been a spot defensively on the Cowboys right edge this year – starting on QLD’s right edge.

Tom Dearden was the other big call Billy needed to make and he’s chosen the logical successor.

Dearden oozes effort in everything he does and was exceptional in his 2022 Origin debut.

Arguments for Ezra Mam to takeover were justified but Dearden’s defence and experience presumably got him over the line.

He’ll offer a running support role on the left edge while Daly Cherry-Evans and Pat Carrigan play on the ball through the middle of the field.

The craft of that pair combined with the attacking threat of Harry Grant and Ben Hunt out of dummy-half gives QLD a considerable playmaking advantage over NSW.

Slater has picked a dynamic, mobile forward pack to complement the ballplaying qualities littered across this Maroons lineup, suggesting QLD may look to play a little more expansively on Wednesday night.

That approach lends itself to the flair and strike along a backline that boasts some of the best attacking talent in the game.

It’s a squad that profiles well to roll the dice in attack and back themselves to defend any errors they make along the way.

What are your likes or dislikes about both State of Origin squads ahead of Game I and how are you expecting each side to play? Let us know in the comments.


Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com