2024 NRL Round 9 Tips & Preview

2024 NRL Round 9 Tips & Preview

A compelling Round 9 opens with South Sydney playing their first game in the post-Jason Demetriou era when they host Penrith on Thursday night while all eyes will be on Suncorp on Friday night for the thrilling affair between title contenders Brisbane and the Sydney Roosters.

The week finishes off with one of the game’s finest local derbies when the Sharks and Dragons square off as the Sharks looks to stay top of the table.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers

This is arguably the biggest mismatch of the season when the three-time defending premiers and title favourites for 2024 Penrith head to Accor Stadium to meet last-placed South Sydney.

It has been a big week for the Rabbitohs though with the club sacking head coach Jason Demetriou on Tuesday evening. Ben Hornby will take over.

Expect Hornby to make plenty of changes from the team announced on Tuesday afternoon with Cody Walker and Jack Wighton expected to start in the halves.

Souths have the talent to lift here and they won’t find a better spot to do so.

This looks like a situation where there will be a new coach bump and off a humiliating performance against Melbourne.

Home underdogs off conceding 50 or more cover at 79%, although Penrith have only a fair record as a huge favourite away from their home ground, but Souths can keep this close enough.

Moses Leota has four tries in 21 games and looks primed against a soft Souths middle, Turuva has eight tries in his last five games and Dylan Edwards has scored in three of his last four matches.

Penrith are weakest defensively down their right edge, conceding over 50% of their tries there, so Jacob Gagai is Souths’ biggest chance.

He has three tries in two NRL games.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: South Sydney +15.5 ($1.96)
  • Next: 1st Half – South Sydney +7.5 ($1.88)
  • Tryscorer: Moses Leota ($34 First/$6.20 Anytime)
  • SGM: Sunia Turuva Try/Dylan Edwards Try/Jacob Gagai Try ($9.94)
Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders

It is hard to see anything but a big Manly win here with Canberra in all sorts following the loss of Jamal Fogarty for an extended period.

The Raiders have a great bounceback record off a poor showing, covering seven straight off conceding 40-plus, but with no playmakers they are going to struggle to score points.

Manly have been dominant at home with five covers in their last six at Brookvale while they have covered 10 of 14 off a win of more than 10 points.

The Sea Eagles have a lot of firepower and have covered nine of 12 against the Raiders so you can expect that trend to continue.

Tom Trbojevic has 23 tries in the last 15 games Manly have started $1.30 or shorter, Jason Saab has 18 tries in 12 games in the same situation and Koula has four tries this season.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Manly -13.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Exact Winning Margin – Manly 30+ ($4.80)
  • Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($7.75 First, $1.75 Anytime)
  • SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Jason Saab Try/Tolutau Koula Try ($7.68)
Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters

The Broncos and Roosters is unquestionably the match of the round and is one of the blockbuster matches of the regular season with the teams meeting for the first time since their spiteful Round 1 clash in Las Vegas, which the Roosters won.

The visitors look a very nice bet getting a huge start as just the fifth team since 2008 to score 60 points and be listed as an underdog the following week.

The previous four all covered with two winning off the stick. Penrith in 2013 are the only team to be listed as an underdog of more than a try following a score of 60 and they won 19-0.

The Chooks have won six of the last eight against Brisbane and have covered four of their last five as an underdog and the line here seems too big.

Joseph Manu has been in elite tryscoring form with seven tries in eight games this year and Walsh has failed to score just once in six games this year.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Sydney Roosters +8.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Sydney Roosters ($2.95)
  • Tryscorer: Joseph Manu ($17 First, $3.50 Anytime)
  • SGM: Joseph Manu Try/Reece Walsh ($7.41)
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers

Canterbury have found themselves in the top eight for the first time in seven years and get a chance to solidify that position against the Wests Tigers.

The Bulldogs have totally changed up their attack and it has seen them score 30-plus in three of their last five, while also scoring at least 22 in four straight against the Tigers.

That kind of firepower will be hard for the Tigers to contain, particularly on their edges where they are highly susceptible.

The Bulldogs have covered four straight day games and three of their last four when favoured.

Api Koroisau is also no certainty to play so the Bulldogs are the only way to bet this game.

Jacob Kiraz is set to fill up as he matches up with union convert Solomon Alaimalo.

Deine Mariner scored last week and should have had three while Stephen Crichton also operates on the Bulldogs’ right and comes off scoring against the Knights.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Canterbury -7.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Jacob Kiraz 2+ Tries ($5.00)
  • Tryscorer: Jacob Kiraz ($10 First, $2.15 Anytime)
  • SGM: Canterbury Win/Jacob Kiraz Try/Stephen Crichton Try
Gold Coast Titans vs Melbourne Storm

Gold Coast picked up their long overdue first win of the season when rolling the Warriors in Auckland but they look lambs to the slaughter this week when the Storm come to town.

Melbourne, unsurprisingly, have dominated this matchup with the Storm winning 13 of the last 15, scoring 32-plus in the last four.

This is a nice spot for Melbourne, who are 25-14 against the spread when playing teams outside the top eight.

They have also covered 13 of 20 off scoring more than 40 points and the Titans don’t hold form, covering just 10 of 26 off a win.

Melbourne looks set for a romp here.

The Titans are at their worst on the left so I’m looking to Meaney and Warbrick for tries.

Meaney has 24 tries in 55 games since joining the Storm while Warbrick has scored in all three games Melbourne have topped 30 this year.

Papenhuyzen has 52 tries in 61 games as a starter and is a must-include each week.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Melbourne -14.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Alternate Handicap – Melbourne -28.5 ($4.25)
  • Tryscorer: Nick Meaney ($16 First, $2.95 Anytime)
  • SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Will Warbrick Try/Nick Meaney Try ($8.84)
North Queensland Cowboys vs Dolphins

North Queensland were brave at home against Penrith last week, fighting back from 24-6 down to lose by just six.

The issue with the Cowboys though is that they rarely but two big performances together and this shapes as a massive letdown spot for the Cowboys.

The Cowboys have covered just eight of 23 at home off a loss and just four of 12 when favoured against a top eight team.

The Dolphins have a large injury toll but they have covered four of five off a loss and have covered at a clip of 60% getting a start of at least eight points.

Trai Fuller is a legitimate speedster who has scored in two of his three top grade games.

Finefuiaki has all the hallmarks of a quality tryscoring edge and the Dolphins can be opened up.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Dolphins +8.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Dolphins Win ($3.00)
  • Tryscorer: Trai Fuller ($17 First, $3.10 Anytime)
  • SGM: Trai Fuller Try/Kulikefu Finefeuiaki Try ($9.42)
Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors

Once again the market has overreacted to Kalyn Ponga’s absence and combined with the Warriors being one of the most overrated teams, the Knights are a tremendous play to not just cover, but win outright.

The Knights are at their best at home on a Sunday afternoon, winning nine straight in the slot.

Newcastle have covered five of seven against the Warriors and seven of their last 10 at home and as a home underdog, Newcastle have covered five straight.

With the Warriors very poor favourites and having covered just 11 of 33 on the road off conceding 22-plus, the Knights are an excellent play to at a minimum cover the 4.5-point start.

David Armstrong has been a prolific tryscorer in NSW Cup and scored on debut last week.

Addin Fonua-Blake has a great record for a prop, coming off a double and now has 13 tries in his last 34 games.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Newcastle +4.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Newcastle ($2.40)
  • Tryscorer: David Armstrong ($16 First, $3.35 Anytime)
  • SGM: David Armstrong Try/Addin Fonua-Blake ($11.81)
Cronulla Sharks vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Cronulla have certainly dominated this local derby of late with seven straight wins against St George Illawarra, covering five of those.

In the two meetings last year, Cronulla won 52-16 and 40-8.

This is a spot the Dragons really should lift for though and this line does look too big.

Teams off conceding 60-plus are normally a very good bet to bounce back the following week, covering 17 of 20 since 2008.

The Dragons have covered 19 of 31 as an underdog of more than a try in NSW.

This line looks too big with the Dragons certainly showing an ability to stand up at times this year.

Tom Hazelton has been in great form as a tryscorer and the Dragons are off conceding five tries through the middle while Sloan has seven tries in eight games this year.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: St George Illawarra +13.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: To Win Either Half – St George Illawarra ($2.25)
  • Tryscorer: Tom Hazelton ($19 First, $3.40 Anytime)
  • SGM: Ronaldo Mulitalo Try/Tyrell Sloan ($4.37)