Origin season is upon us and we start the seven week period where players are missing due to Origin duty but we still have a compelling five-game slate this week.
Clint Gutherson and Mitch Moses make their returns from injury for the Eels while the Bulldogs have lost not only two to Origin but Viliame Kikau to injury.
The Roosters were the big Origin winners with James Tedesco not picked and that has them slated as the biggest favourites of 2024 to date.
Parramatta have been off the map since teams were named on Tuesday with news that stars Mitch Moses and Clunt Gutherson had been named.
New coach Trent Barrett has also tried to make his mark by dropping Ryan Matterson, relegating Shaun Lane to the bench and reinstating Junior Paulo as a starter, which seems to be a dramatic overreaction.
Parramatta get some big names back but Trent Barrett coached teams are 12-47 in his last 59 games and the Eels are 2-10 against the spread at night.
Teams off a loss of 40 or more cover at 60% since 2008 while they are 21-14 against the spread off a loss.
Most notable though is when a Top 2 team is an underdog against teams outside the Top 8 they are 29-8 against the spread.
Teig Wilton has a great tryscoring record with 24 tries in 66 games as an NRL starter.
The Eels are weak down their right and Mulitalo has 74 tries in 99 games.
Sivo has nine tries in six games this season despite the Eels losing every game he has played in, the last five by 14-plus.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla +1.5 ($1.94)
- Next: Cronulla 13+ ($4.50)
- Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($21 First, $3.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Ronaldo Mulitalo Try/Maika Sivo Try/Teig Wilton Try ($9.46)
Newcastle have not been scarred by Origin selection with no players picked.
The Bulldogs have lost skipper Stephen Crichton with five-eighth and NSW 18th man Matt Burton also not available, Viliame Kikau is missing through injury while the Knights are without Bradman Best.
There is not a lot of respect being afforded the to Bulldogs in this market.
They flogged the Knights just six weeks back and they’ve covered four of their last five against Top 8 teams and in their last four getting more than a try, they have covered each of those.
The Knights have covered just six of 17 when laying more than four points.
Jacob Preston has an excellent tryscoring rate as an edge backrower with nine tries in 28 games including scoring in his last two off the bench.
The Bulldogs leak nearly 60% of their tries down their right and that lines up well for Greg Marzhew, Blake Wilson has eight tries in 14 NRL appearances.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury +4.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury Win ($2.35)
- Tryscorer: Jacob Preston ($19 First, $3.40 Anytime)
- SGM: Greg Marzhew Try/Blake Wilson Try ($4.03)
Penrith are missing more players to Origin than St George Illawarra but it is the Dragons who have been more harshly hit with the Saints having a total inability to replace either Ben Hunt or Zac Lomax.
The Panthers have five out playing Origin but have such great depth and as a system team they can just keep on keeping on and Brad Schneider’s return is key for Penrith.
The Panthers are 23-11 against the spread at Penrith Stadium and have covered five straight off a defensive shutout and the Dragons cover at just 40% against Top 8 teams.
The Dragons leak badly down their right so that shapes up well for Paul Alamoti and Jesse McLean.
Alamoti has three tries in five games since joining the Panthers and McLean has eight tries in 10 NSW Cup games this year, while Tago has crossed in his last two matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Penrith -9.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Penrith 30+ ($6.40)
- Tryscorer: Paul Alamoti Try ($17 First, $3.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Paul Alamoti Try/Jesse McLean Try/Izack Tago Try ($13.14)
If there is one truth in Rugby League it is that Ricky Stuart hates bad defence and when his teams defend badly, they rarely do it two weeks on the trot.
Off conceding 40 or more over the last four years, the Raiders are a perfect 8-0 against the spread, they lift.
There can be no knock on the Dolphins considering how they have overachieved this year but they still don’t have a marquee scalp.
The loss of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is also a blow for the Dolphins and the underdog has covered both these clashes so the Raiders look a nice play.
Savage has six tries in 11 games this year and is Canberra’s best tryscoring weapon.
Trai Fuller has three tries in five NRL appearances and is a genuine gamebreaker.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra +4.5 ($1..90)
- Next: Canberra Win ($2.35)
- Tryscorer: Xavier Savage ($10 First, $2.05 Anytime)
- SGM: Xavier Savage Try/Trai Fuller Try ($4.56)
This game looks like it will be one-way traffic with the Roosters winning the lottery when James Tedesco was overlooked.
He will not only play against the Cowboys but will do so with a chip on his shoulder.
Remarkably the Cowboys have more players missing than the Roosters with six Cowboys on Origin duty compared to four for the high-flying Roosters.
Key is that the Roosters are not missing any of their spine so their attacking machine should roll on and it would be stunning if they didn’t thump North Queensland.
They are the biggest favourites of the season to date and they have covered five of their last six against the Cowboys.
North Queensland are 9-18 against the spread interstate and cover at just 37% off conceding 22-plus.
Manu has 10 tries in 11 games this season and Young has six tries in his last five games, while Tupou has not gone consecutive games without scoring.
Tedesco also has seven tries in his last 10 matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Sydney Roosters -19.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Sydney Roosters 30+ ($3.05)
- Tryscorer: Joey Manu ($9.50 First, $1.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Joey Manu Try/Dom Young Try/Daniel Tupou Try/James Tedesco Try ($7.67)