2024 NRL Round 12 Tips & Preview

2024 NRL Round 12 Tips & Preview

We have reached the final round for Origin auditions with New South Wales and Queensland selected upon the completion of Round 12.

Nicho Hynes and his red-hot Sharks host a Penrith team in the rare spot of being an outsider on Saturday evening while two pick ‘em games and a classic repeat of ‘The Battle of Brookvale’ make Round 12 one of the featured weekends of 2024 thus far.

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Ilawarra Dragons

Canterbury look very short for a team that played so poorly last week.

Those who jump on board the Bulldogs will be happy to mark it up as a stumble by a team on the improve but it sure looked like a regression to a team prone to panic and short on creativity.

Taking sub-$1.60 or laying 4.5 points does not appeal in the slightest.

When two teams outside the Top 8 play, the underdog covers at 60% and the Dragons have had the benefit of a bye to prepare.

Teams who enter a bye off a big win too tend to come out of it well, covering at 67% the last six years.

With the Dragons covering six of their last nine away from their suburban home grounds, they look the play.

The Dragons are weak defensively down their right and Matt Burton operates down the left and is in good tryscoring form with six tries this year, crossing in his last two.

Zac Lomax has seven tries in 10 games this season.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: St George Illawarra +4.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: St George Illawarra ($2.45)
  • Tryscorer: Matt Burton ($15 First, $3.05 Anytime)
  • SGM: Matt Burton Try/Zac Lomax Try ($6.96
North Queensland Cowboys vs Wests Tigers

The Cowboys are an incredibly unreliable team and their failure to put away Souths after losing their prior five games makes taking the shorts about them incredibly unappealing.

The Cowboys have conceded at least 20 points in every game this season while they have surpassed 28 points just three times this year and not since Round 5.

The Tigers have been gutted by injury and suspension and have a cobbled-together team here but they get a major push from the return of Isaiah Papalii.

The Cowboys have covered just two of their last nine when favoured by 8.5 or more while the Tigers have covered 10 of 17 as a double digit underdog.

Papalii has three tries this year and comes off a double. Braidon Burns scored a double on his Cowboys debut and the team does prefer to go right.

Jeremiah Nanai has eight tries in 11 games this year and has scored in all five of his matches with the Tigers.

Bula has not scored in seven weeks but the Cowboys have conceded to a fullback in four of their last five.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Wests Tigers +12.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: To Win Either Half – Wests Tigers ($2.15)
  • Tryscorer: Isaiah Papalii ($34 First, $6.00 Anytime)
  • SGM: Braidon Burns Try/Jeremiah Nanai Try/Jahream Bula Try ($12.14)
Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm

The return of Jahrome Hughes brings plenty of confidence to betting the Storm as a small favourite here, even if the match is held at Brookvale.

The Storm have dominated this matchup, winning seven of the last nine meetings, and Manly have a diabolical record when Tom Trbojevic is missing.

This is just a huge spot for the Storm with interstate teams off scoring 48-plus points covering at 73%.

With the Storm covering 13 of 21 off scoring 40-plus, Melbourne are a tremendous bet.

Manly are weakest down their right so Xavier Coates is one of the better tryscoring bets of the week with five tries in his last three games.

Sua Fa’alogo is also a genuine livewire with three tries in four NRL games.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Melbourne -3.5 ($1.85)
  • Next: Melbourne 1-12 ($2.85)
  • Tryscorer: Xavier Coates ($7.75 First, $1.80 Anytime)
  • SGM: Xavier Coates Try/Sua Faalogo Try ($4.61)
Canberra Raiders vs Sydney Roosters

Canbera are not being shown a lot of respect for a team currently inside the Top 8 and playing at home.

The Raiders are getting 11.5 points at Canberra Stadium on Saturday afternoon and it looks far too big, the Raiders have won their last two meetings against the Roosters and have covered seven of the last 11.

Home double digit underdogs cover at 57% and this is as much a play against the Roosters as anything.

They have covered just seven of 24 as a double digit favourite while interstate favourites of at least 10 points off a loss cover at just 29% in the first three months of the competition.

Hudson Young has five tries in his last six games and Dom Young has eight tries in eight games this season since joining the Roosters.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Canberra +11.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Canberra Win ($3.80)
  • Tryscorer: Hudson Young ($17 First, $3.30 Anytime)
  • SGM: Hudson Young Try/Dom Young Try/Joey Manu Try ($12.84)
Cronulla Sharks vs Penrith Panthers

This is an outstanding Top 4 clash and the pressure is surprisingly now on the Sharks.

After two weeks of big games where they have gone in as a notable outsider, the Sharks are favoured against the three-time defending premiers, relegating the Panthers to outsider status for the first time in 2024.

Penrith are also in the rare position of coming into a game off a loss.

Penrith are 6-3 against the spread as an underdog and 14-3 against the number off a loss.

While they remain without Nathan Cleary, Penrith look like they will rely on their defence to get them home.

The Sharks are weakest down their left so hitting up the right side Panthers attackers to score.

Tago has scored in his last two matches and Turuva has nine tries in nine games this season.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Penrith +3.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Penrith +3.5/Under 40.5 ($3.40)
  • Tryscorer: Izack Tago ($13 First, $2.80 Anytime)
  • SGM: Izack Tago Try/Sunia Turuva Try ($6.23)
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels

South Sydney have shortened dramatically in betting this week and that trend should continue.

The Rabbitohs ended a long non-cover streak against the Cowboys last week and can record their second win of the season against an Eels team that sacked coach Brad Arthur on Monday.

Astonishingly, they have handed the reins to Trent Barrett, who has a 12-46 record across his last three seasons as a head coach.

The Rabbits have gone to a Wighton/Walker halves combination and that is a huge plus for Souths.

Parramatta leak tries at high rates on the right and Alex Johnston sits third on the all-time tryscoring list so he looks a good thing to score.

Mitchell has three tries since returning from suspension, Walker scored his first try of the season last week

Recommended Bets

  • Best: South Sydney Win ($1.90)
  • Next: South Sydney 13+ ($4.25)
  • Tryscorer: Alex Johnston ($7.50 First, $1.65 Anytime)
  • SGM: Alex Johnston Try/Latrell Mitchell Try/Cody Walker Try ($11.78)
Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans

Brisbane are incredibly short in this local derby matchup with the Gold Coast where the Titans have caused the Broncos plenty of problems in the recent past and star fullback Reece Walsh is no certainty of playing as he looks to overcome an injury.

The Titans have won four of the last six against the Broncos at Suncorp and won the last clash between the teams 18-12.

Despite the Titans being decimated by injury, they have shown plenty of heart with six straight covers and have covered 11 of 16 as a double digit underdog and five of six at Suncorp.

The number in this one looks very big for a team that has genuine winning hopes.

Tony Francis debuts on the wing for the Titans and he has been a tryscoring machine in the Queensland Cup with 38 tries in 45 games.

Ezra Mam has 30 tries in 49 NRL games and Mariner has scored in seven of nine games this season.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Gold Coast +14 ($1.90)
  • Next: Gold Coast Win ($4.50)
  • Tryscorer: Tony Francis ($14 First, $2.65 Anytime)
  • SGM: Tony Francis Try/Deine Mariner Try/Ezra Mam Try ($8.00)
New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins

The Warriors posted an all-important win over Penrith last Sunday but their injury-ravaged outfit faces a tough home clash with the Dolphins.

The Warriors won the corresponding clash at Mt Smart last season but this looks a nice opportunity for the underrated Dolphins to showcase their road credentials.

The Dolphins have covered 13 of 21 at night while the Warriors have covered just two of 10 at home and cover at just 40% off a win.

Bostock has nine tries in 10 games this year and Tabuai-Fidow has 22 tries in 26 games.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Dolphins Win ($1.90)
  • Next: Dolphins Win/Under 41.5 ($3.40)
  • Tryscorer: Jack Bostock ($10 First, $2.10 Anytime)
  • SGM: Jack Bostock Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($4.63)