The stars continue to go down with Ryan Papenhuyzen, Clint Gutherson and Adam Reynolds the latest to pick up long-term injuries but the NRL train rolls on with some big games in Round 10 led by the top-of-the-table clash between Melbourne and Cronulla.
Latrell Mitchell returns to action for South Sydney, Herbie Farnworth is back and the Bulldogs are trying to keep their spot inside the Top 8, all in Round 10.
The Dolphins go in as marginal underdogs at home to the Sea Eagles in Thursday Night Football this week and look a tremendous bet at the price against a Manly team that doesn’t travel particularly well.
The Eagles have covered just one of their last eight away from Brookvale when favoured and interstate favourites off a loss cover at just 46%.
The losses of Lachlan Croker and Nathan Brown will also have a significant impact, Lawton struggles with his ball distribution and Brown is one of the few aggressive runners the team has.
The Dolphins have covered 12 of 19 at night while they are 13-9 against the spread in their home state.
When playing a Top 8 team, they are 9-5 against the spread.
Max Plath is a handy tryscorer who has three in nine NRL first grade games while he has scored 16 in 32 in the Queensland Cup.
Tom Trbojevic has 46 tries in 45 games.
The Dolphins skew to conceding down their left and that makes Jason Saab value.
Isaako was top tryscorer last year and has five tries in the last four games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins 1-12 ($3.40)
- Tryscorer: Max Plath ($23 First, $4.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Jamayne Isaako Try/Jason Saab Try ($6.99)
Penrith and Canterbury have been the teams for a pair of games with the biggest lines in NRL history, with two of the last three at Penrith Stadium having a line north of 30 points.
The teams are much closer together this year though with Canterbury improving significantly, particularly on the defensive side where they have not conceded more than 26 in a game and have kept opponents to 16 or fewer in three straight.
The Bulldogs have plenty of ex-Panthers in both the coaching box and on the field so will be well and truly ready for what Penrith throw at them.
Canterbury have covered the last two against the Panthers and have covered six of seven getting more than two converted tries, the start here looks too big.
Luke Garner is a very good tryscoring edge who comes off a double and hits a Bulldogs right that gives up 56.52% of their tries.
Brian To’o is another left side player who can take advantage of the Bulldogs’ weakness, scoring three tries in five games against the Bulldogs.
Bronson Xerri is rediscovering his best form with tries in his last two.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury +15.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Total Penrith Points: Under 26.5 ($1.80)
- Tryscorer: Luke Garner ($14 First, $3.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Brian To’o Try/Bronson Xerri Try ($7.27)
Brisbane have lost key half Adam Reynolds but that should not prove an issue against a Parramatta team in freefall and without their two best players now Clint Gutherson has joined Mitchell Moses on the sidelines.
Brisbane just have too much firepower and the Eels are leaking like a rusty bucket having conceded 32-plus on three of their last four.
The Broncos have covered five of seven against the Eels and travelling is no issue with 12 covers in their last 16 away from Suncorp.
Brisbane have covered 13 of 16 at night and 15 of 24 when favoured by more than a converted try.
Brisbane have scored 28-plus in six of nine this year and should have a field day against the Eels.
Ezra Mam has 29 tries in 46 games and Walsh has 12 tries in his last 13.
The Eels leak on their right so left winger Corey Oates has to be included in SGMs.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Brisbane -9.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Alternate Line: Brisbane -23.5 ($4.00)
- Tryscorer: Ezra Mam ($12 First, $2.30 Anytime)
- SGM: Ezra Mam Try/Reece Walsh Try/Corey Oates Try ($9.65)
The market does not know how to rate Newcastle without Kalyn Ponga.
His absence is actually great for bettors because the Knights are now severely underrated.
The Knights cover at 58.53% without Ponga and just 43.63% with their star fullback, so this looks a great week to be on the Knights.
They have won and covered four straight against the Knights and won the only clash in Tamworth.
Newcastle also do their best work in afternoon football, covering 13 in of 18 day games.
Once again the market has missed the Knights, particularly with Tyson Frizell back.
The Tigers get Jayden Sullivan back this week and he is a defensive liability.
He will likely defend on the right so confident that Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew will be on the score sheet.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle -2.5 ($1.94)
- Next: Newcastle 13+ ($3.45)
- Tryscorer: Bradman Best ($12 First, $2.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Bradman Best Try/Greg Marzhew Try ($4.81)
St George Illawarra would never have expected to jump favourites in this one when the season kicked off but given the diabolical state of South Sydney they are not only the elect but a heavily bet favourite.
And they still aren’t short enough!
The Rabbitohs lineup is a complete mess, Latrell Mitchell returns but they have had to call in reinforcements from outside the club in the outside backs with a host of injuries including Cameron Murray and their rookie fullback and halfback.
Remarkably, South Sydney have not covered the spread in any of their last 15 games.
The Dragons have covered their last three against South Sydney and perform their best at Kogarah where they have covered 11 of their last 15.
This is going to be a one-way go.
The Rabbits leak down their left and the Dragons score nearly 60% of their tries down their right so centring on Bird and Lomax.
Bird is not a prolific tryscorer but has crossed in two of his last five, while Lomax has five tries in seven games on the wing in 2024.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra -5.5 ($1.83)
- Next: Winning Margin II – St George Illawarra 19+ ($3.80)
- Tryscorer: Jack Bird ($21 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Jack Bird Try/Zac Lomax 2+ Tries ($16.96)
The top-of-the-table clash has taken a huge blow when the Storm lost both Ryan Papenhuyzen and Jahrome Hughes.
After opening up 4.5-point favourites, the match is now close to pick ‘em, which has the Storm looking a nice play.
The loss of Pap hurts but young Fa’alogo looks an absolute star, a genuine speedster with Baryshnikov balance.
The Storm have won six of the last seven against Cronulla and won five straight at home against the Sharks by 16 or more.
The Storm are 10-4 against the spread at AAMI off conceding 20-plus and Cronulla have covered just four of 12 against top 4 teams.
Fa’alogo has three tries in two appearances for the Storm, Sharks prop Tom Hazelton is flying with tries in three straight games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne Win ($1.87)
- Next: Melbourne 1-12 ($2.90)
- Tryscorer: Sua Fa’alogo ($12 First, $2.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Sua Fa’alogo Try/Tom Hazelton Try ($11.40)
You won’t find many totals lower than the under in the Roosters and Warriors, but these two have a long history of low-scoring games.
Eight of the last 10 have finished on 36 or fewer and the under is 17-9 between these two dating back to 2008.
The under is 11-4 when the Roosters play at Allianz and has hit in 12 of 14 when the Roosters are off a win.
The under is also 28-15 when the Warriors play a day game so the total is good this week.
Crichton is getting back to his best and has scored three tries in his last two matches.
The Warriors concede on their edges and the Chooks wingers are elite finishes.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 43.5 Total Points ($1.90)
- Next: Under 37.5 Total Points ($2.80)
- Tryscorer: Angus Crichton ($17 First/$3.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Dom Young Try/Daniel Tupou Try/Angus Crichton Try
The Titans climbed off the bottom of the ladder with a win over the Warriors but the most notable story from a betting perspective out of the Gold Coast has been the five straight covers they have put together.
The Titans are playing much better football since AJ Brimson moved into the spine while the market continues to underrate them.
The Cowboys are a more talented team but they are wildly inconsistent.
They have also covered just three of their last 11 as a favourite off a loss so the Titans should probably be favoured in this one.
AJ Brimson has scored four tries in three games since shifting to fullback.
Feldt has four tries in his last six games against the Titans and Fifita has 34 tries in his last 68 games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast 13+ ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: AJ Brimson ($15 First, $2.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Kyle Feldt Try/AJ Brimson Try/David Fifita Try ($13.89)