It is Magic Round in the NRL in what shapes as a defining week for many of the 16 teams playing as well as one of the last chances for those pushing for an Origin jersey to stake their claim.
Three of the four Queensland teams go in favoured this week with the Broncos and Dolphins two of the biggest favourites of the week.
The highlight of Round 11 is without question the Saturday evening clash between the Sharks and the Roosters with two of the most impressive teams in the premiership squaring off.
The Bulldogs don’t have a stellar record against the Raiders with Canberra winning the last eight clashes but this looks like a prime opportunity for Canterbury to stem that.
This year the Bulldogs have shown significant improvement in both the quality of their roster and the effort they are putting in, which has been on show the last month when they won three on the trot before holding Penrith to just 16 points.
The Bulldogs have got some stability in their team now and this is a nice spot for them.
They have covered their last four against Top 8 teams as well as covering four of their last five as a favourite.
Canberra are awful off a win – covering just 13 of 42 – while they cover at a clip of just 40% interstate.
With their lack of talent in the spine, the Raiders seem there for the taking.
Canberra are at their weakest defensively down their left side so work around Crichton and Kiraz as tryscoring options.
Crichton has six tries in four games as a centre against Canberra while Kiraz has scored in two of his last three.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury -3.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canterbury 13+ ($3.10)
- Tryscorer: Stephen Crichton ($13 First, $2.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Stephen Crichton Try/Jacob Kiraz Try ($6.67)
The loss of Tom Trbojevic should see Manly fade from contention and adding Jason Saab to the mix makes the Sea Eagles a huge take on team.
The Sea Eagles backline is a debacle and that is a major concern against a Broncos team that can score for fun.
Even with Haumole Olakau’atu back, the Sea Eagles look extremely brittle defensively against a team that has scored 28-plus in six of their last seven.
Brisbane has covered seven of their last nine against Manly with the last two wins coming in Magic Round by margins of 28 and 36.
The Broncos have covered nine of 10 at Suncorp, 14 of 17 at night and 18 of 26 off a win of 13-plus.
Speed kills – something Manly are about to learn the hard way.
Mam has 30 tries in 47 games and is nearly always over the odds, Mariner has 13 tries in 14 NRL games and would be one of the five fastest players in the NRL and Walsh has scored in 10 of his last 14 matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Brisbane -11.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Exact Winning Margin: Brisbane 30+ ($5.25)
- Tryscorer: Ezra Mam ($11.50 First, $2.15 Anytime)
- SGM: Ezra Mam Try/Deine Mariner Try/Reece Walsh Try ($6.83)
The Knights have firmed heavily in this one on the back of the heavy injury toll with the Titans forced to name two hookers in the halves.
Even with the good news that David Fifita backflipped on the Roosters, the Titans are going to find it hard to create points this week.
The Knights have injury concerns of their own with Tyson Gamble out and Tyson Frizell highly unlikely despite being named.
With so many injuries to playmakers, the best bet in this is the under, which is 29-21 when the Titans are $2.50 or shorter, 10-4 when the Knights are interstate and 21-16 when they are off a win.
David Armstrong looks a genuine tryscorer with two in his first three NRL appearances and Fifita is in great tryscoring form with three tries in his last four games and he creates them for himself.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 45.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Newcastle/Under 45.5 ($2.75)
- Tryscorer: David Armstrong ($12 First, $2.40 Anytime)
- SGM: David Armstrong Try/David Fifita Try ($7.49)
There is not a lot of respect being shown to the Sharks in this one.
Despite being top of the table, Cronulla are underdogs for the second straight week, which puts them in a good spot.
Cronulla have covered five of their last six interstate while they are 19-12 against the spread as an underdog.
There is absolutely no knock on the Roosters but the absence of Joey Manu will impact the potency of the right-edge attack.
With the Roosters covering just three of 10 at Suncorp and just five of 14 off a win, Cronulla do look the value.
Angus Crichton has been in sublime tryscoring form with five tries in his last three games.
Ronaldo Mulitalo has 73 tries in 96 games and he has scored in four of five against the Roosters.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla Win ($2.35)
- Next: Cronulla +3.5 ($1.98)
- Tryscorer: Angus Crichton ($17 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Ronaldo Mulitalo Try/Angus Crichton Try ($7.35)
North Queensland are hardly the most reliable team to bet on, particularly laying a big start like 8.5 points, but the one certainty in NRL betting at present is that South Sydney are the most overrated team in the market despite running last.
In their last 16 matches, South Sydney have covered exactly zero of them.
While the Cowboys have dropped their last five, they have scored 35-plus three times this year and their potent attack can carve up the worst defence in the NRL, which has conceded 28-plus in all bar one game this year.
North Queensland should win this big.
The Cowboys score mostly down their right edge and the Bunnies left side is the worst defensive channel in the competition so focusing attention there.
Kyle Feldt has scored in his last two and has 18 tries in his last 28 games and Nanai has six tries in his last four starts.
Recommended Bets
- Best: North Queensland -8.5 ($1.90)
- Next: North Queensland 41 Points or More ($4.50)
- Tryscorer: Jeremiah Nanai ($11 First, $2.05 Anytime)
- SGM: Kyle Feldt 2+ Tries/Jeremiah Nanai Try ($10.47)
The narrative from this game is that both teams are not only missing their star halfback but also missing their top backup, meaning this game shapes as a big under match.
Penrith failed to score a try against Canterbury in the second half after Nathan Cleary went off with a hamstring injury while the Warriors have lost their only creative force and are now forced into playing Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad in the halves.
New Zealand have topped more than 12 in just one of their last seven against the Panthers.
The under is 13-5 when Penrith are off scoring 16 or fewer and is 28-16 when the Warriors play day matches.
Luke Garner has been in great tryscoring nick with three tries in his last two games and Liam Martin has scored in three straight against the Warriors.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 41.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Draw/Penrith ($12.00)
- Tryscorer: Luke Garner ($13 First, $2.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Luke Garner Try/Liam Martin Try ($9.00)
The Storm should have few problems disposing of a washed up Eels team missing their most important players but the top play in this game is the over.
Melbourne can score points and Parra is a debacle defensively.
The over is 23-10 when the Storm are favoured by double digits but this is mainly a play against the Eels horrid defence.
The over is 19-10 when the Eels are interstate, 26-11 when they are off a loss and 24-11 when they are an underdog and this total seems exceptionally low.
The Eels are worst defensively on their left so looking at right edge Storm players to score.
Eli Katoa has four tries in his last six games and scored first last week.
Warbrick will be the biggest beneficiary of the Eels defensive deficiencies.
Fa’alogo is a genuine speed machine who has three tries in three NRL games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 44.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne -13.5/Over 44.5 ($3.05)
- Tryscorer: Eli Katoa ($15 First, $2.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Will Warbrick Try/Sua Fa’alogo Try/Eli Katoa Try ($9.81)
It is hard seeing how the Tigers are going to compete with the Dolphins in this one.
A team already short on talent and hurt by injury and suspension have now lost John Bateman to a long-term injury, Isaiah Papalii to suspension and Starford To’a to the casualty ward.
The Dolphins continue to be underrated and get back Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, and they have covered 13 of 20 at night and 14 of 23 in Queensland.
But most notably are 4-1 against the spread when favoured by a try or more.
The Hammer has scored 20 tries in 25 games since joining the Dolphins.
The Tigers are abhorrent on the right when Jayden Sullivan plays so Jack Bostock and Herbie Farnworth are must includes in same game multis.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins -11.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins 41 Points or More ($4.75)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($9 First, $1.73 Anytime)
- SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Jack Bostock Try/Herbie Farnworth Try ($9.74)