2024 AFL Round 12 Tips & Preview

We’ve got an absolute beauty on our hands to kick off Round 12 with the third-placed Port hosting the eighth-placed Blues.

Both sides head into this game coming off solid wins last Saturday, but this feels like a danger game between two sides that can make footy tipping a nightmare.

Granted, Port have won four of their past five but with the exclusion of playing North down in Tassie, they make it bloody hard for you.

Three out of the Power’s last four wins have been decided by two kicks or less, Carlton has had a little rough patch but got back into some winning form last week.

It’s fair to say, the battle in the midfield is where this game will be won and with the likes of Port’s Zac Butters and Carlton’s Sam Walsh likely to get plenty of the football, it wouldn’t surprise me if this turns out to be a bit of a swings and roundabouts game.

Tipping an outright winner for this is hard, even if Port are the $1.65 favourites at home, so let’s go with a Same Game Multi.

I’ll take either 15.5 or less with Butters 25+ disposals and Sam Walsh 30+ in what is a solid three-legger, if I do say so myself.

If anyone can logically explain why Collingwood, who’s home ground is the MCG are having a home game against the Western Bulldogs, a tenant of Marvel Stadium at Marvel Stadium this Friday night while the MCG is vacant, I’ll shout you a cold one.

As for finding some value in this game, there’s never a dull moment when Collingwood is involved.

The Pies became the first side since Essendon in 1995 to play in two draws in one season with that thrilling finish over the Dockers in Perth (and questionable free kick) and always tend to find themselves in close ones.

For the Bulldogs, after the blow torch was put on them a few weeks back, Bevo and his boys have played some solid footy in the last few weeks and most people would argue that some fairy pedantic umpiring played a role in their 14-point loss to the Swans last week.

At time of publishing, Collingwood opens the betting as $1.58 favourites, with the Dogs $2.40 head to head.

One of the most reliable bets in the Craig McRae era has been to take the Pies to win by 1-39 points and at the $2.20 on offer, I’ll have some of that.

One could argue that both the Hawks and Crows are currently the in-form teams of the competition and this clash on Saturday arvo at the MCG could be game of the round.

Ok, maybe that’s a bit too much mayo on my opening sentence, however, Hawthorn and Adelaide have given their fans plenty to like in recent weeks.

The Hawks were fantastic against Brisbane last Sunday with a cracking 25-point win over the Lions and dominated all day and the Crows got West Coast classic belting them to the tune of 99 points at Adelaide Oval.

Adelaide opens the head-to-head betting as the $1.68 favourite, with the Hawks $2.15 but the line only gives the Crows a +5.5 buffer at time of publishing.

The Crows almost pipped Collingwood (they weren’t robbed, read the rules) when they last ventured to the MCG and have had an excellent five weeks of football.

Having said that, Hawthorn continue to impress, and will playing at home infront of the brown and gold faithful.

Let’s take the Hawks 1-24 at the Gerard and Robbo odds of $3.60 (see what we did there) in what should be a thriller for some value.

The Saints are a lost cause and playing West Coast, despite a 99-point loss to the Crows last week, in Perth won’t be considered the percentage booster it was considered 12-months ago.

The Eagles have won three out of their past four home games at Optus Stadium by an average of 37 points and have pretty much made it a fortress once again.

With Jake Waterman finding his mojo and averaging three goals a game and Harley Reid being, well, Harley Reid expect the Eagles to get back on the winners list over the pathetic Saints.

This same game multi should do the trick.

The Cats finally get a crack at playing the Tigers at Geelong this Saturday night and will go in clear $1.05 favourites to get back on the winner’s list after losing their past four, including their last two at the Cattery.

However, this preview is more of a sentimental one.

Let’s appreciate the champions and legends of our game.

Tom Hawkins, the Tomahawk, broke the all-time games record at Geelong of 356 from Joel Selwood last week.

Sure, he had a rough patch of form recently, he’ll tell you that himself, but he still plays an important role for the Cats and kicked two in their loss to GWS last week.

Players, officials and past teammates celebrate Tom Hawkins as he becomes Geelong's games-record holder.#AFLCatsGiants pic.twitter.com/Jrwg2h3uKN

— AFL (@AFL) May 25, 2024

And what about Dusty?

Or Mr. Martin to you if you don’t barrack for Richmond.

Some click bait pundits had the temerity to actually question if the champ still had it.

He was back in his natural habitat of the big stage at the MCG last week and played some of the hits with 23 disposals and three goals.

DUSTIN MARTIN. ⭐️#AFLTigersDons pic.twitter.com/8rIIglVKFC

— 7AFL (@7AFL) May 25, 2024

The greatest big-time player our game has ever seen (three Norm Smith Medals doesn’t make this a debate, just facts) is a joy and in game 299 it’s a delight to see the number 4 for Richmond still do his thing.

So both Richmond and based on form, Geelong aren’t the big dogs at the moment but relish the fact you see the Tommahawk and Dusty get to play.

I’ve got them both for 2+ goals this Saturday night in a SSGM – a sentimental same game multi.

We’re off to Alice Springs of all places for the Dees and Freo on Sunday.

The Dees got some much needed winning form last week doing it easy over the Saints and Freo drew with the Pies in a memorable encounter.

Melbourne opens betting for this game the $1.45 favourite with Freo at $2.75 and this being the first time the Dockers have played at Tregar Park.

While the Dockers have been good of late, Melbourne should be winning these sorts of games, and with the line giving them a 13.5 head start, the Dees should be able to cover it.

The Gold Coast Suns are back at Carrara and take on the second placed Bombers this Sunday.

Essendon being second on the ladder is putting a smile on their fans’ faces, they are winning games, but most, including this pundit reckon the Bombers are up in that part of the ladder for a good time, not a long time.

Gold Coast at home is becoming a rather reliable bet, be it at People First Stadium, Heritage Bank, Metricon, or whatever its called this week (or Darwin) but struggle away.

They open the head-to-head betting at $1.73 with the Dons $2.10, the line gives the Suns a -4.5 head start.

Dimma and his men aren’t playing away this week, they are at home and haven’t lost a home game all season.

With an average winning margin of 33 points when playing at home this season, the Suns 1-39 looks like a good value bet in this one.