2024 AFL Round 11 Tips & Preview

The top of the ladder Swans head down to Marvel to take on the up and about Bulldogs, who have had a nice purple patch over the past fortnight since the blowtorch was placed on coach Luke Beveridge.

There’s been plenty to like about the Western Bulldogs in recent weeks, fresh from beating the Giants in Sydney by 27-points last week with signs that Bevo and his men are very much playing to their full potential.

Sydney opens the head to head betting as $1.55 favourites at time of publish, but it’s the midfield battle that’s set to be intriguing.

While the obvious discussion will surround on the Bont (Marcus Bontempelli) and Brownlow favourite Issac Heeny, it’s those around them who have really been making an impact in recent weeks.

Take Bulldog Adam Treloar for example, who’s been hitting the 30+ disposals count three weeks running (with 35 last week v GWS and a whopping 41 v Richmond) and has done it five times this season, averaging 32.7 touches per game.

Chad Warner was without doubt best on ground in the Swans 52 point win over the Swans last week with 28 disposals and three goals, and will probably pinch a few Brownlow votes from Issac Heeny with the duo becoming a formidable pair in the midfield.

Expect both of these ball magnets to get plenty of the Sherrin in what should be a close one to start the second week of Sir Doug Nicholls round.

This same game multi should hopefully get the job done.

Have we not learned anything from the past few years?

Never, ever write off Collingwood.

Sure they had some losses early in the year, but Craig McRae and these Magpies always find a way.

Another week, another close win, another Daicos masterclass, another impressive performance.

The market has the Dockers the narrow $1.85 head-to-head favourite, with the Pies $2 and the narrowest of 1.5 lines at time of publishing.

Collingwood going in as underdogs and playing on the road means only one thing – they win.

For all the talk that Collingwood plays at the MCG way too much, the Pies have a phenomenal interstate record having won seven out of their past eight outside Victoria.

Don’t be tempted by recent good performances by the Dockers or the fact this game is being played at Optus Stadium.

It just makes backing Collingwood even more attractive.

Take the $2 head-to-head or go even better, take the Pies 1-39 at the $2.40 for a bit more value.

Port will get the job done in this game against the lowly Kangas in Hobart, it’s just a mater of how it will be done.

If you must watch this game, the interest will always surround Port’s Jason Horne-Francis playing against his old team.

It’s basically the same script as last year.

For the theatre of it, I’ve just gone with a Same Game Multi, for where I’d expect Jason Horne-Francis as an anytime goal scorer and his old-mate North’s Cam Zurhaar for 2+ before waiting for Kane Cornes to go on about it during the Sunday Footy Show the next day.

Baggers for flaggers?

Carlton isn’t even in the eight after Round 10!

Who saw that coming.

Meanwhile, fresh from another successful stint in Darwin, the Gold Coast Suns head to Marvel Stadium in what could be a classic statement game for the club.

If Gold Coast are able to beat the Blues in Melbourne this Saturday, you could almost be confident that Damien Hardwick could be taking the expansion club to September for the very first time.

The problem is, the Suns have a reputation of being flat-track bullies.

Their Darwin record speaks for themselves and Carrara is starting to become a fortress, however, they’ve lost their past 10 games.

I’m not willing to tip the Suns in an upset, however, the Blues ability to keep things interesting by always being in close matches, means that the Suns at the +16.5 line is worth a shot.

Three weeks ago, this would be seen as the potential Grand Final preview and now both the Cats and Giants have lost the previous three matches.

While playing Geelong down at GMHBA Stadium holds fear for most clubs, the Giants don’t mind a trip to old Sleepy Hollow having won their past three games at the Cattery.

Geelong have lost their past two, but with big scores and it’s fair to assume the 100-164 loss to the Gold Coast Suns in Darwin with a scoreline straight out of 1993 was a one-off.

Both sides have had a form slump and that you would expect both of them to be still be involved in the business end of the season – it’s only Round 11 after all.

The Cats at home should be a reliable bet and given they haven’t lost two consecutive games at GMHBA Stadium since 2015, you should expect Geelong to chalk up a win in a close one.

Most Richmond fans would be hoping that Dreamtime at the ‘G doesn’t turn into nightmare at the ‘G this year.

The Tigers are coming off losses of 119 points to Brisbane and 91 points against the Dogs over the past fortnight with the injuries piling up.

Much has already been said and written about the Tigers form and injury crisis, heck you can even DM me and I’ll tell you all about what I think, (or just listen to this weeks Neds AFL Unpopular Opinions podcast)

But let’s turn our attention to Essendon.

Bomber fans haven’t been this up and about since the turn of the century, with the Dons sitting second on the ladder, and the “Essendon Edge” we’ve heard so much about seems to be getting the job done as they keep chalking up the W’s (and even a Draw on Anzac Day)

With the Dons going into this match as $1.07 favourites with the line giving them a +44.5 buffer, it’s a matter of how much Essendon win by, not if they can win.

Some pundits still can’t trust the Dons, but punters should be able to with Essendon having won each of their last 11 games as favourite,

For some value, Essendon to win by 60-79 points in our 20 point margin spread at $4.25 looks to be one of the great bets of the weekend.

The Brisbane Lions would have been stoked when the AFL fixture was released that they’d be playing Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, rather than the MCG, Launceston or perhaps…the Gabba.

Why?

They love Marvel.

Brisbane has won eight of their past nine under the roof.

Given their poor start at the Gabba this year, they’ve currently got better form down at the Docklands!

Despite taking a loss from the jaws of victory last week in Adelaide, there’s no doubt that the Hawks recent form has been great to watch but Brisbane simply have to keep winning to compensate for their poor start to the season.

Fresh from a training drill against the Tigers last week, they should be able to get the job done over the Hawks.

Stick a fork in the Saints.

Season 2024 is done and dusted.

They also have the good fortune of facing Melbourne fresh from a shock loss against Harley Ri…I mean the West Coast Eagles in Perth last week.

Getting the Dees on the rebound at the G means a likely tough day at the office is ahead for Ross Lyon and his men.

Not to mention, there’s currently a Freo hoodoo for Punters with each of the last six teams to play Freo have failed to cover the line the following week.

With the line giving the Dees a -18.5 head start, the alternative at -22.5 at the $2.05 on offer is outstanding value.

Melbourne has also won their past four against the Saints, and they’ll make it five on Sunday afternoon at the MCG.

We can talk about the form of both the Crows and Eagles for this match, or instead, we can just focus in on the number one draft pick sensation that is Harley Reid.

Any netural that’s making the effort to watch Adelaide v West Coast for the 4:40 Sunday game is watching this for one reason only – Harley Reid.

The kid is a freak.

He’s changed West Coast.

The West Australian newspaper has been on the money.

Reid is currently $1.20 for the Rising Star and there’s every chance his don’t argue to Christian Petracca running goal from the centre of Optus Stadium wins goal of the year.

Every time he gets the footy, you can’t help but be dazzled.

For someone who’s played nine games in his career, Eagles fans and footy fans generally love every minute of it.

So instead of a Same Game Multi, I’ve called this a Same Game Harley, I don’t rule out the Eagles having a crack against the Crows as well.