We’re in that awkward stage of the 2024 NRL regular season where we still haven’t seen quite enough of every team to be confident of where they might end up in 27 weeks time.
At the same time, we’ve also got just enough of a sample size to start forming some early season overreactions.
From rookies kicking on, coaches under pressure and clubs on the slide, here’s a few hot takes from the opening month of the season.
Isaiya Katoa kicking on
I wasn’t convinced The Dolphins would play finals footy last year despite their fast start.
Wayne Bennett did Wayne Bennett things to kickstart Redcliffe’s life in the NRL but as injuries and fatigue took their toll, The Dolphins skinny 2023 roster eventually showed its holes.
A lot of those holes have been plugged in season 2024.
Plenty has been said already about the acquisitions of Tom Flegler, Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo but it’s the development of Isaiya Katoa that has The Dolphins well placed to give this NRL competition a shake in 2024.
With 22 first-grade games under the belt coming into this season, Katoa figured things out the hard way last year.
The fruits of that labour are already bearing fruit three games in as Katoa appears to have avoided the dreaded ‘second year syndrome’ to take a leading role in The Dolphins attack.
Katoa is credited for just one try assist across the opening month of the season but in reality he’s been front-and-centre in this improving Dolphins attack.
NRL Video Analysis: Isaiya Katoa kicking on
"Katoa isn’t producing the flashy plays but he is consistently doing all the little things we usually expect from veteran NRL halfbacks."
— Oscar Pannifex (@OscarPannifex) April 2, 2024
With the ball in two hands and some subtle tempo changes as he drifts across the field, Katoa is looking very comfortable playing at first-receiver to compress the defence towards the ball.
Out a little wider, he’s also coming up with the right options in the second- or third-layer of a shift; his combination with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow tore apart the Gold Coast’s right edge in NRL Round 4.
The Dolphins have added some serious firepower to their roster this season and Katoa is profiling more and more like the guy who can bring it all together on the field in just his second year in the NRL.
Tigers on the up
When writing my Early Season Overreactions this time last year, I (like many of us) had serious concerns about the Wests Tigers.
It was obvious they didn’t have the roster to compete in 2023 but we could still look for winning signs in losing performances as an indication that the Tigers were trending in the right direction.
They weren’t.
In amongst the myriad of glaring issues in Tigertown last year, they desperately lacked some leadership in the halves and were failing horribly to support Api Koroisau around the ruck in attack.
Fast-forward to NRL Round 4, 2024 and Benji Marshall appears to have addressed both key issues.
Aiden Sezer is pointing or passing Wests around the park and getting them to specific areas on the field.
It’s safe to assume he was largely responsible for ensuring Wests got to the right post and in position to slot the match-winning field goal with his left foot on Monday.
Beside him in the halves, young Lachlan Galvin is being afforded opportunities to produce some individual brilliance on the back of a productive forward pack and Sezer’s direction from halfback.
For the Tigers this year though, it all starts with Koroisau behind the ruck.
Api ducks and Olam scores! 🤝 #NRLTigersSharks pic.twitter.com/9vjKGBQR9q
— NRL (@NRL) March 23, 2024
We didn’t see this look often from Wests last year; three players pushing up around the ruck as Koroisau toys with the markers and pokes his nose through the line to find Justin Olam.
Koroisau is undoubtedly the Tigers most influential player and they’re doing a wonderful job in supporting him in attack to start the season.
Finals footy might still be another year or two away but the latest evidence suggests the Wests Tigers are finally on the up.
Are Souths done?
They’re called overreactions for a reason but it’s difficult to see where the South Sydney Rabbitohs go from here.
It’s a very long season and a lot can change overnight in the NRL; just look at how Souths form turned after Round 12, 2023. That being said, there are some concerning signs coming out of Redfern to kickoff season 2024.
Soft through the middle and disconnected on the edges, the Rabbitohs have been unable to absorb pressure with their defence to start the year.
Currently ranked equal first for total missed tackles, ninth for errors and sixth for penalties conceded, South Sydney are doubling down on their poor yardage game (13th in the NRL for total run metres) to gift their opposition far too much cheap possession and field position.
Throw in their horrid injury toll, a few questionable team list selections and the mixed form of some key players and the Rabbitohs are a long way from premiership contenders after four games played.
Banking wins while adjusting systems on the run is a difficult task in the NRL and how Jason Demetriou manages the next few weeks will be telling, likely for both his and the club’s immediate future.
Closest season ever?
The Neds NRL Punting Podcast consensus four weeks ago was that the 2024 NRL season was shaping as the closest competition of the modern era.
Everything we’ve seen since has vindicated that prediction.
Numbers never paint the full picture in rugby league but they tell a compelling story, four rounds in.
Completion rates and discipline have always been good indicators of how a team is performing and in season 2024 those statistics are king.
We’re seeing huge momentum swings within games on the back of penalties or cheap errors as attacking teams punish mistakes and quickly turn field position and possession into points.
The Penrith Panthers are again the outlier at time of writing.
They currently lead the NRL for total penalties conceded but offset that number with a high completion rate (avg 78%), the lion’s share of possession (avg 51% per game) and the best defensive system we’ve ever seen in the NRL.
With no team undefeated after four games played and at least three clubs currently sitting outside the Top Eight who appear destined for finals footy in 2024, this season is going to be a nail-biter from start to finish.
What are some of your NRL 2024 early season overreactions? Let us know in the comments.
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com