A stunning Anzac Day threesome of games kicks off a hot Round 8 with the highlight being the traditional affair between the Dragons and the Roosters at Allianz.
The long-standing rivalry between the Sea Eagles and Eels on Friday night is just as fascinating while Saturday will focus on the return of Nathan Cleary.
Sunday is all about absence and how the Knights and Raiders respond without key figures Kalyn Ponga and Jamal Fogarty.
Betting is way off in this one with the Titans a huge chance of pulling off a massive Anzac Day boilover.
The Warriors have lost Kurt Capewell but do get Dylan Walker back while the Titans roll out the same 17 that ran Manly close.
Gold Coast are obviously getting close, they went to golden point with the Raiders and lost by just four to Manly, covering both those games.
They have covered 10 of their last 15 getting a double digit start.
This looks a good game to be against the Warriors too, particularly laying the big number.
New Zealand have failed to cover their last five when favoured by more than 10 and they have covered just one of their last eight at Mt Smart.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira is a born tryscorer who enters this off two straight doubles.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has 25 tries in the 20 games he has played with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.
David Fifita has four tries in his last six games against the Warriors.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +12.5 ($1.87)
- Next: Gold Coast Win ($3.80)
- Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($9.75 First/$2.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try/David Fifita Try ($10.63)
One of the great games on the calendar, the traditional Anzac Day clash between the Dragons and the Roosters has been typically close.
That puts the Dragons right in the mix as a betting proposition getting 6.5 points.
Five of the last seven clashes between the two on Anzac Day have been decided by two points or fewer.
The Dragons have covered three of the last four meetings against the Chooks.
With the Roosters covering just three of their last 10 as a favourite of a try or more, the bet has to be the Saints.
Zac Lomax is in tremendous tryscoring form, failing to cross just once this year.
His game did not change much moving back to the centres last week.
Manu has loved playing the Dragons recently, scoring seven tries in the last six games, crossing in the last three Anzac Day games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +6.5 ($1.90)
- Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.60)
- Tryscorer: Zac Lomax ($17 First/$3.25 Anytime)
- SGM: Zac Lomax Try/Joseph Manu Try ($8.35)
This looks like it will be one-way traffic with a Storm team finally getting an easy matchup against a Souths team that is conceding over 32 points per game.
It is hard to see anything outside of a comfortable Melbourne win here. Souths have never won in Melbourne in 18 starts and that won’t change this week.
Most notably, Souths are riding a 13-game non-cover streak.
The Storm have covered 24 of 38 against teams outside of the Top 8 and this looks like a game they will really fire up the attack.
Katoa has three tries in his last threegames, Coates has three tries in his last five games, Papenhuyzen has 50 tries in 60 games as a starter and Warbrick is a matchup special against a Souths left-edge defence that has conceded 17 tries this year.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -13.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Exact Winning Margin: Melbourne 30+ ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: Eliesa Katoa ($14 First, $2.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Eliesa Katoa Try/Xavier Coates Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Will Warbrick Try ($17.36)
There should be plenty of points when Manly and Parramatta square off at Brookvale on Friday night with both teams capable of scoring plenty and both teams struggling defensively.
The over has hit in five of seven Manly games this year with four games tallying 50-plus, while four of the last five Eels games have tallied 47-plus.
These teams have gone over the total in 10 of their last 13 including the last five at Brookvale.
The over is 23-10 when Parramatta are an underdog and has hit in eight straight Eels night games while the over is 30-17 when Manly are off a good attacking performance.
Tom Trbojevic is an auto-bet every week at the prices, having scored 44 tries in his last 42 games, Saab has 16 tries in his last 21 games.
Olakau’atu has three tries this season and is a double digit tryscorer the last two years so is a threat against a poor defensive team.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 44.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Total Points Bands: 61+ ($7.50)
- Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($8.50 First, $1.82 Anytime)
- SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Jason Saab Try/Haumole Olakau’atu Try ($9.10)
Early-season home underdogs of at least a try cover at 66% in the opening eight weeks of the season so the Tigers need to be the bet this week.
They are getting a huge number at home for a team that has not conceded more than 26 points in their last five games.
The Tigers have not won any of their last nine at Campbelltown and their debuting of rugby union convert Solomon Alaimalo will be disastrous but interstate teams off a win in the first eight rounds of the season cover at just 37%.
On Alaimalo, Deine Mariner is up against him and is going to have a field day.
He has three doubles in nine games across the last two years and never against a player as bad unprepared as Alaimalo.
Walsh has six tries in five games this year, only failing to score against Penrith, while Justin Olam has three tries in his last three games against the Broncos.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +13.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Deine Mariner 2+ Tries ($2.25)
- Tryscorer: Reece Walsh ($10.50 First, $2.10 Anytime)
- SGM: Deine Mariner Try/Justin Olam Try/Reece Walsh Try ($8.16)
The Cowboys shape as a tremendous bet at home to the Panthers off a humiliating performance against the Sharks.
Big early-season home underdogs are cash money, covering at 66%, while teams off conceding 42-plus in the opening eight rounds cover at 61%.
Penrith are a great team riding three straight premierships but even with the return of Nathan Cleary, this is not a good spot.
The Panthers have covered just 5 of 13 interstate off a big win.
Scott Drinkwater has been in great tryscoring form this year with five tries and now has 27 tries from his last 50 games.
Turuva has eight tries in his last five games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: North Queensland +9.5 ($1.96)
- Next: North Queensland Win ($3.60)
- Tryscorer: Scott Drinkwater ($16 First, $3.25 Anytime)
- SGM: Scott Drinkwater Try/Sunia Turuva Try ($6.21)
The market seems to have overreacted to Newcastle’s loss of Kalyn Ponga.
While Ponga is unquestionably a great player, the data does not support such a big overreaction.
Since Ponga debuted for the Knights, Newcastle’s scoring actually improves by over two points per game when he is out while their cover percentage goes up 13% in his absence.
The Dolphins come off an impressive half of football but this is the shortest they have been in their short history and they come off a draining road game in tough conditions in Darwin.
The Dolphins have covered just three of nine at Suncorp while the Knights have covered nine of 13 interstate.
Look to back debutant David Armstrong to score, he has 23 tries in 28 games in the NSW Cup including five this season in five games.
Sunia Turuva has been a leading tryscorer this year and comes up against defensive liability Greg Marzhew.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle +7.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Newcastle Win ($2.75)
- Tryscorer: David Armstong ($17 First, $3.35 Anytime)
- SGM: David Armstrong Try/Jack Bostock Try ($5.93)
The Raiders are another big early-season home underdog worth betting.
The loss of Jamal Fogarty hurts the Raiders but has been partially offset by the decision to stand down Sharks No.6 Braydon Trindall.
Canberra have won nine of the last 10 against the Sharks including the last four at Canberra Stadium.
The Sharks have not been good travellers either, covering just two of six.
The money has come in for the Raiders so expect this price to keep tumbling.
Savage is one of the fastest men in the NRL and has five tries in seven games.
Schiller has five tries in four games. Ronaldo Mulitalo is scoring a try per game across the last two seasons.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra +7.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canberra Win ($2.80)
- Tryscorer: Xavier Savage ($12.50 First, $2.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Xavier Savage Try/James Schiller Try/Ronaldo Mulitalo Try ($10.00)