2024 NRL Round 6 Tips & Preview

2024 NRL Round 6 Tips & Preview

Round 6 of NRL action is upon us and there are plenty of stars missing after a brutal Round 5 with the Roosters, Broncos and Dolphins hardest hit. All-eyes will be on the Brisbane derby on Friday night while Auckland hosts the match of the round when the Warriors host the Sea Eagles. Buckle down for another big week of NRL action.

Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters

The opening game of Round 6 is arguably the most difficult betting game of the week. Newcastle are probably deserved favourites with the Roosters losing James Tedesco, Sam Walker and Dom Young but the market does look like it has overreacted. Underdogs off conceding 28-plus in Rounds 5-8 cover at 61% and the Roosters have won 16 of the last 19 against the Knights. The Roosters have lost just four of 15 when Manu starts at fullback and he has seven tries when playing at the back. The line on the Roosters is just too big. Tuala has eight tries in his last 14 games.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Sydney Roosters +5.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Sydney Roosters Win ($2.55)
  • Tryscorer: Joseph Manu ($15 First/$3.15 Anytime
Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs

The Storm look set to annihilate an undermanned Bulldogs side who are still recovering from nearly blowing a 26-point lead against the Roosters. The Storm have dominated this matchup with seven wins in the last eight meetings, the last three coming by 20-plus. The Storm are 19-12 against the spread at AAMI and have covered their last four at the ground off conceding 30-plus. The main angle here though is how bad big interstate underdogs go early in the season. Underdogs of 16 or more in the first eight rounds of the comp travelling interstate cover at just 33%. With the Bulldogs 6-12 against the spread off a win and 5-8 against the number interstate. The Bulldogs are leaking tries down their right so Coates and Smith are both great plays. Papenhuyzen has five tries in two starts against the Bulldogs.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Melbourne -18.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Melbourne -28.5 ($3.25)
  • Tryscorer: Xavier Coates ($7.25 First/$1.68 Anytime)
  • SGM: Xavier Coates Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Reimis Smith Try ($8.43)
Brisbane Broncos vs Dolphins

The Dolphins have lost both Herbie Farnworth and Felise Kaufusi for this one but those injuries aren’t nearly as crucial as Brisbane’s loss of Adam Reynolds. Reynolds is so critical to unlocking Brisbane’s attack and without him they are in all sorts. The one game they played without him, Penrith flogged Brisbane 34-12 with the Broncos not scoring until the game was all over. Brisbane won both these derby meetings last year but the Dolphins covered both. The Phins have covered 10 of 16 at night and 10 of 16 off scoring 20-plus. The Hammer has 20 tries in 25 games since joining the Dolphins. Staggs scored in one of his two games against the Dolphins.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Dolphins +9.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Dolphins ($3.30)
  • Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($12.50 First/$2.50 Anytime)
  • SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow/Kotoni Staggs ($6.41)
New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles

Expecting a complete points-fest when the Warriors and Sea Eagles square off at what looks a dry Mt Smart Stadium on Saturday evening (local time). The over has hit in 12 of the last 14 meetings between these two with five of the last six hitting the 48-point marker. Both teams are in huge over spots too. The over is 15-10 when the Warriors are off a win including a 6-3 over record off a 20-plus victory. The over is 30-22 when Manly are away from Brookvale including a 16-6 record when they travel interstate. This total is far too low. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is a tryscoring machine when Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad plays, scoring 15 in his last 10. Tom Trbojevic is scoring at better than a try a game over the last four seasons. Addin Fonua-Blake is the best tryscoring prop in the NRL and he has 11 tries in his last 31 games.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Over 41.5 Points ($1.90)
  • Next: Total Points (Bands) 61+ ($14)
  • Tryscorer: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try ($7 First/$1.77 Anytime)
  • SGM: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try/Tom Trbojevic Try/Addin Fonua-Blake Try ($17.53)
Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys

The Eels were downright awful last week against the Raiders but back at home with a positive team change they look a nice bet. Daejarn Asi comes into the halves to replace Blaize Talagi and gives the Eels a better kicking game and more experience. Teams off conceding 38-plus in Rounds 5-8 cover at 61% with home teams off conceding 40-plus covering at 57% the last four years. The Cowboys are bad travellers, covering just nine of 25 interstate and just six of 18 interstate off a win. This is a great opportunity for Parramatta to bounce back. The Cowboys have been weakest through the middle and that presents an opportunity for Gutherson. Feldt has 13 tries in 12 games against the Eels. Scott Drinkwater has 13 tries in his last 17 games.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Parramatta +3.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Parramatta +3.5/Over 46.5 ($3.90)
  • Tryscorer: Clint Gutherson ($12 First/$2.30 Anytime)
  • SGM: Clint Gutherson Try/Kyle Feldt Try/Scott Drinkwater Try ($10.95)
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Cronulla Sharks

This is it for South Sydney. Their season swings on this weekend, as does the future of coach Jason Demetriou, who will likely be punted if the Rabbitohs are humiliated again. Damien Cook has been dropped and Latrell Mitchell has been suspended but they might just be the circuit-breakers the Bunnies need. As a big home underdog early in the season, Souths are an auto-bet and they look a good one under the circumstances. Home dogs of four or more in the opening eight rounds of the season cover at 65% while those off a loss of 28-plus cover at 69%. If there is any pride at Redfern, Souths will batten down the hatches and dig in here. Tass isn’t a noted tryscorer but does have nine tries in his last 28 games and is over the odds. Mulitalo has 69 tries in 92 games and he has three in five against

Souths. Wighton scored a double against the Bulldogs and matches up well for speed against Jesse Ramien.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: South Sydney +9.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: South Sydney ($3.20)
  • Tryscorer: Isaiah Tass ($26 First, $4.50 Anytime)
  • SGM: Ronaldo Mulitalo Try/Jack Wighton Try ($5.41)
Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons

The Dragons look a tremendous bet this week against a Tigers team that is really having their depth tested. The Tigers, who are already without Lachie Galvin, have lost John Bateman and both Fainu brothers. The Tigers are at home this week but Campbelltown will hardly provide comfort with the club losing their last eight at the venue. The Tigers have covered just 4 of their last 12 when favoured and just one of five against bottom four teams. The Dragons bounce back off a bad loss, covering 8 of 12 off a double digit defeat. They also cover at a clip of 64% in NSW when off a loss. Tyrell Sloan has scored six tries this year and will be keen to put on a showing after being challenged by his coach last week. Justin Olam has three tries in three games this year since joining the Tigers.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: St George Illawarra +1.5 ($1.95)
  • Next: St George Illawarra 13+ ($4.80)
  • Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($11.50 First, $2.40 Anytime)
  • SGM: Tyrell Sloan Try/Justin Olam Try ($6.47)
Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans

The Raiders have a home encore again and off putting 41 on Parramatta they will be confident about putting up another impressive victory. Happy to take the Raiders on at such a short quote though in both line and head-to-head wagering. The Raiders have dominated this matchup, winning 10 of the last 12, but they have covered just 14 of 43 as a favourite and two of nine when favoured by double digits. They also won’t have Ricky Stuart riding them like Mick Dittman because of a heinous defensive showing.Underdogs off conceding 28-plus in Rounds 5-8 cover at 61% and they showed enough last week to take a flyer on them. Looking at tryscorers, the AJ Brimson price is insanely large. He has not scored this year but does have 38 tries in 104 starts. Savage and Schiller both have elite speed with Savage scoring four tries in five games this year while Schiller has five tries in his last three NRL games. Fermor looks back at full fitness and is a strong tryscorer at his best.

Recommended Bets

  • Best: Gold Coast +10.5 ($1.90)
  • Next: Gold Coast Win ($3.35)
  • Tryscorer: AJ Brimson ($21 First/$3.90 Anytime)
  • SGM: Xavier Savage Try/James Schiller Try/Beau Fermor Try ($11.98)