Round 5 of NRL action kicks off with a blockbuster between two Top 4 teams from last year in Melbourne and Brisbane with the big news being the return of Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes.
The Panthers remain without Nathan Cleary but will be favoured on the road to Manly while South Sydney are looking to put to bed an 11-game non-cover streak.
The round wraps up with the closest betting game of the week when the Raiders host the Eels in a match that has both teams desperate for a win.
Melbourne have done nothing but beat the tar out of Brisbane since losing the 2006 Grand Final to them and with the cavalry arriving this week, more of the same seems to be on the cards.
The Storm are 31-5 since that infamous decider and since 2008, Melbourne have covered 25 of 33.
Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes return from injury and suspension respectively and that not only boosts the confidence but will unlock the highly talented backline.
The Storm have covered 15 of 23 at AAMI when favoured by more than a try while underdogs of at least a try cover at just 40%, Melbourne are a great bet to run away with this.
Brisbane have conceded eight of 17 tries through the middle this year – equal worst with the Cowboys – so fancy Harry Grant, who has two tries in five showings against the Broncos.
The Pap has 49 tries in 57 games starting at NRL level and Will Warbrick scored a double in his only regular season clash against the Broncos.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Alternate Handicap: Melbourne -23.5 ($5.40)
- Tryscorer: Harry Grant ($17 First, $3.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Will Warbrick Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Harry Grant Try ($15.95)
Betting on this game is completely wrong and that is before we factor in the likely monsoonal conditions that will hit Sydney on Friday, big home underdogs this early in the season are always money with those getting 8 or more points covering at 63%.
The Bulldogs are also off back-to-back covers and they have covered the last three against the Roosters.
While the Roosters are clearly a better team, they have covered just one of four at the ground and seven of 20 when favoured, favourites of eight or more off a loss playing on the road cover at just 33%.
Angus Crichton is back in the starting team and will be looking to make his mark, he has 31 tries in 116 starts on an edge, while Canterbury have conceded 11 tries and seven have come down their right channel so Roosters left wing Daniel Tupou looks an excellent bet at black odds.
Blake Wilson is also a reliable tryscorer.
Recommended Bets
- Next: 1st Half: Canterbury +5.5 ($1.88)
- Tryscorer: Angus Crichton ($21 First, $4.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Daniel Tupou Try/Blake Wilson Try ($6.75)
The Knights seem very short for a team that is down the bottom of the table, is chopping and changing their halves seemingly weekly and is reliant on a single player.
Bottom four teams favoured by four or more cover at just 35% and a team trying out a Cogger/Hastings halves pairing should not be favoured by as many as the Knights are.
The Dragons have won five of their last seven in Newcastle and road teams off a win of seven or more against a home team off a loss of seven or more cover at 57% in the opening eight rounds of a season, the Saints should cover and possibly even win.
Tyrell Sloan has thrived under the Flanagan regime with six tries in four games this year, Kalyn Ponga has scored four tries in his last three against the Dragons.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +7.5 ($1.90)
- Next: St George Illawarra ($2.85) Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($13 First, $2.85 Anytime)
- SGM: St George Illawarra +13.5/Tyrell Sloan Try/Kalyn Ponga Try ($9.41)
Wild weather is expected to hit Sydney all weekend and looking at these two teams, points will really be at a premium in this one.
These two have a history of high-scoring matches but Souths seem incapable of scoring at the moment while the Warriors are very much a defence-first side in 2024.
The under hits at 62.2% when a home underdog is off a win in the opening eight rounds the last four years, the under is 22-15 when Souths are off conceding 16 or fewer while the under is 27-18 when the Warriors are off scoring 20 or fewer, a low-scoring game is well and truly on the cards here.
Fonua-Blake is the top tryscoring prop in the NRL with 11 tries in 29 games the last two seasons, Wighton comes off a double and with the injuries to the Bunnies, he is clearly their most dangerous three-quarter weapon.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Alternate Total: Under 33.5 ($3.35)
- Tryscorer: Addin Fonua-Blake ($17 First, $3.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Addin Fonua-Blake Try/Jack Wighton Try ($9.09)
Take on Penrith at your own peril. they may be without Nathan Cleary but they are still significantly better than Manly.
The Panthers have covered eight of 12 with no Cleary over the last three years and they tend to lob in a big spot without him with Penrith 25-14 against the spread when not a double digit favourite.
They’ve won eight straight against the Sea Eagles and won the last three at Brookvale by 12 or more points.
In terms of tryscorers, the best bets you will find all weekend are Sunia Turuva and Izack Tago, Penrith have scored a majority of their tries down the right and they will be running at Jaxson Paulo, plus the duo have nine tries between them this season.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Penrith 13+ ($3.35)
- Tryscorer: Sunia Turuva ($9.50 First. $2.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Sunia Turuva Try/Izack Tago Try ($5.56)
The Dolphins sit atop the table and look to solidify their position with a nice home win over the Tigers, Wayne Bennett’s side are playing a very good brand of football and this is a nice spot for them.
The Phins are 9-6 against the spread at night, 9-6 against the spread off scoring 20-plus, 4-2 against the spread when favoured and 16-11 against the number off a win.
Interstate teams off a win early in the season are typically poison and with no Lachlan Galvin, the Tigers are going to find it very hard, particularly defensively.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Dolphins -4.5/Under 42.5 (43.60)
- Tryscorer: Jake Averillo ($13 First/$2.55 Anytime)
- SGM: Jake Averillo Try/Jack Bostock Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($10.36)
This is going to be an utter rout, all signs point to it.
The Cowboys play quick and direct while the Titans open up like the Panama Canal, the Cowboys are 13-4 in their last 17 against the Titans with 12 covers over that stretch.
There are few better big favourites in the NRL than the Cowboys, who are 29-13 against the spread when a double digit favourite.
They have covered 10 of 14 at Queensland Country Bank when favoured by at least a converted try.
With the Titans covering just 8 of 25 on the road, confidence is high that the big number will be covered.
Tom Dearden has 25 tries in 62 games for the Cowboys, Kyle Feldt has 15 tries in his last 19 games and Scott Drinkwater has 11 tries in his last 16 games.
Recommended Bets
- Next: North Queensland -35.5 ($5.50)
- Tryscorer: Tom Dearden ($15 First/$2.70 Anytime)
- SGM: Kyle Feldt Try/Scott Drinkwater Try/Tom Dearden Try ($10.58)
Parramatta have won five of the last seven against Canberra and this is a poor spot for the Raiders.
They are 13-29 against the spread when favoured and just 12 of 29 at home and the Eels have covered 18 of 32 off conceding 17 or fewer.
Sivo has 88 tries in 105 games and he has scored in four of his last five against the Raiders, Hudson Young has 28 tries in 77 starts in the backrow.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Canberra/Parramatta HT/FT ($8.25)
- Tryscorer: Maika Sivo ($9.25 First, $2.05 Anytime)
- SGM: Maika Sivo Try/Hudson Young Try ($6.00)