2024 NRL Round 4 Tips & Preview

2024 NRL Round 4 Tips & Preview

Sydney Roosters v Penrith
Sydney Roosters -4.5 ($1.90)

Injuries have taken a huge toll on betting in this one with the Panthers drifting from 2.5-point road favourites to 4.5-point road underdogs on the back of news Nathan Cleary is out for a month.

Cleary is now in the Johns/Thurston echelon of changing betting lines. Penrith will still dig deep defensively but the Roosters have to be the bet in this one.

They are playing a super brand of football – quick, aggressive, expansive – and come off a dominant win.

Teams coming off a win of 40-plus in the last four seasons are 25-9 against the spread the following week.

Penrith have covered 7 of 11 without Nathan Cleary but other injuries hurt their hopes here, while the Panthers have also covered just two of six away from home.

This is a line-in-the-sand game for the Roosters and expecting they will cover this ever largening minus.

Dom Young is arguably the best tryscorer in the NRL and is a mammoth price considering he has 41 tries in 47 games.

James Tedesco has three tries in his last two games and the Panthers will be most vulnerable down the middle.

The Roosters have conceded six tries this year and four have come down the right so that puts elite Panthers tryscorer Brian To’o in the frame to score.

Recommended Bets

  • Next: Dominic Young Anytime Try ($1.90)
  • Tryscorer: James Tedesco ($11.50 First, $2.65 Anytime)
  • SGM: Dom Young Try/James Tedesco Try/Brian To’o Try ($10.73)
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Canterbury +6.5 ($1.90)

South Sydney have dominated Canterbury over the last decade and have won five of their last six against them, scoring 32-plus in all six, but seem severely under the odds for this traditional Good Friday clash.

Souths have been horrendous defensively this year, conceding 19 tries in three games.

Cam Murray, Damien Cook and Jack Wighton are all carrying injuries while there is an incredible amount of pressure on young half Dean Hawkins.

Souths have covered just one of eight off conceding 28-plus and just one of six when favoured by more than a converted try.

The Bulldogs are far from a reliable proposition but they worked hard defensively and teams off a shutout win have covered 19 of 28 since the start of the 2021 season.

Blake Wilson scores at a clip of one every two games but comes up against the Rabbitohs left edge that has conceded 10 tries already this year.

Latrell Mitchell has 12 tries in 12 games against the Bulldogs including four in two on Good Friday.

Recommended Bets

  • Next: Canterbury Win ($2.65)
  • Tryscorer: Blake Wilson ($10.50 First, $2.35 Anytime)
  • SGM: Canterbury +10.5 Alternate Line/Blake Wilson Try/Latrell Mitchell Try ($8.67)
Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland Cowboys
Brisbane to Win ($1.95)

Brisbane have historically been a strong bounceback team at Suncorp and this looks a good spot for them to do just that even with stars Reece Walsh and Payne Haas missing.

The Broncos have covered 16 of 21 at Suncorp off a loss while off a double digit loss, the Broncos have covered 12 of 15.

North Queensland may be the last undefeated team standing but have had to reel in deficits of 14-plus in their last two against teams unlikely to play finals football.

Adam Reynolds is back and the Broncos are a good bet.

Ezra Mam has 24 tries in 42 games so is huge overs to score in this one.

Finefeuiaki scored last week and looks a likely tryscoring backrower as a hard-running edge.

Recommended Bets

  • Next: Brisbane 1-12 ($3.05)
  • Tryscorer: Ezra Mam ($16 First, $3.60 Anytime)
  • SGM: Ezra Mam Try/Kulikefu Finefeuiaki Try ($13.01)
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles
St George Illawarra +9.5 ($1.90)

Those with the nerve to go again will be betting the Dragons on home turf getting a big start.

It didn’t pay off against the Cowboys but they have to be a bet this week off two utter humiliations.

This game will be played at Wollongong and the Dragons play their best football there, covering 11 of 15 and holding a 9-2 all-time record over Manly at the venue.

The key here though is the Saints getting a big number at home.

Underdogs of at least a try in the opening four rounds cover at 65% and those off conceding 46 or more cover at 73%.

Tyrell Sloan has four tries this year and can pop up anywhere with his speed. Mikaele Ravalawa gets a huge advantage in matchups against Jaxson Paulo.

Tom Trbojevic scores at better than one per game over the last four seasons.

Recommended Bets

  • Next: St George Illawarra ($3.35)
  • Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($14 First, $2.70 Anytime)
  • SGM: Tyrell Sloan Try/Mikaele Ravalawa Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($10.07)
Gold Coast Titans vs Dolphins
Gold Coast to Win ($2.15)

The Dolphins won both these clashes last season against their south-east Queensand rivals the Titans and certainly come into this with more impressive form but suspect the Titans should be up for this one.

They have lost Tino Fa’asuamaleaui but do get back Jayden Campbell and likely David Fifita and they need to show something having scored just a single try and conceding 70 points – to the Dragons and Bulldogs.

Teams off a loss of 30-plus though do cover at a clip of 61% in the opening four rounds while those off a win of 13-plus against a team that lost by the same margin cover at just 37%.

The Titans will be improved here and are value as an underdog. Beau Fermor has 23 tries in 64 games on an edge.

Alofiana Khan-Pereira is the fastest player in the NRL and has 21 tries in 26 games, while Tabuai-Fidow has 18 tries in 23 games since joining the Dolphins.

Recommended Bets

  • Next: Gold Coast 1-12 ($3.35)
  • Tryscorer: Beau Fermor ($17 First, $3.35 Anytime)
  • SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($4.28)
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
Best: Newcastle +6.5 ($1.90)

Low confidence game where the points are being taken in a likely low-scoring affair.

The Warriors are unquestionably a better team but they do not have the scoring in them to put teams to the sword.

Newcastle has covered four of the last six meetings and have covered eight of their last 13 interstate.

With the Warriors covering just one of five at Mt Smart and just three of 12 laying more than a converted try, the best bet is the Knights to cover the start.

Addin Fonua-Blake has scored the first try twice already this year and has 11 tries in 29 games so is great value.

The Warriors concede out wide and Enari Tuala has seven tries in his last 12 matches.

Recommended Bets

  • Next: Newcastle +6.5/Under 41.5 ($3.15)
  • Tryscorer: Addin Fonua-Blake ($19 First, $3.70 Anytime)
  • SGM: Addin Fonua-Blake Try/Enari Tuala Try ($9.32)
Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders
Cronulla -4.5 ($1.90)

Cronulla shapes as one of the best bets of the week despite a poor recent record against Canberra, that has netted just one win in the last 10 meetings and three covers in the last 12 clashes.

However the spot for the Sharks here though is too good to ignore.

Cronulla are 24-16 against the spread when favoured by at least four and have covered 10 of 15 when favoured by that number at Shark Park.

It is also notable that the Sharks have covered six of eight off a 20-plus loss and five of six off scoring 10 or fewer.

Expect a big Sharks win. Mulitalo is the Sharks’ most lethal weapon, scoring 67 tries in 91 games.

Katoa has 60 in 93 games, Teig Wilton has 21 tries in 58 games when starting in the backrow.

Recommended Bets

  • Next: Cronulla 13+ ($3.15)
  • Tryscorer: Ronaldo Mulitalo ($8.50 First, $1.95 Anytime)
  • SGM: Ronaldo Mulitalo Try/Sione Katoa Try/Teig Wilton Try ($16.01)
Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers
Wests Tigers +6.5 ($1.90)

Both Parramatta and the Wests Tigers enter this off impressive victories with the Eels coming from behind against Manly and the Tigers blowing the Sharks off the park.

The Eels have lost halfback Mitchell Moses though and he is a monster blow with rookie Blaize Talagi now coming into the halves to join Dylan Brown.

The Tigers came with energy and a game plan and can build on that this week.

They have covered six of eight at CommBank and have the talent to push the Eels if they keep up the second phase play.

I love the matchup Solomona Faataape has this week against Morgan Harper.

The same goes for Justin Olam who scored on his Tigers debut and Will Penisini is a poor tackler who Olam should have a profitable day against.

Recommended Bets

  • Next: Wests Tigers ($2.60)
  • Tryscorer: Solomona Faataape ($19 First, $3.45 Anytime)
  • SGM: Solomona Faataape Try/Justin Olam Try ($11.68)