Brisbane suffered a hammer blow to their chances of winning the Grand Final rematch with Penrith when star halfback Adam Reynolds was ruled out.
The Broncos have a potent attack but it does not work without Reynolds pulling the strings, while Penrith has lost James Fisher-Harris but look reasonably settled.
The key to this matchup is the venue, Penrith are near unstoppable at home.
The Panthers are 22-10 against the spread at their stadium and 17-8 against the number at the ground when favoured by more than a converted try.
A couple of other angles push the Panthers here too, they have won six of seven against Brisane and they cover at a clip of 77% off conceding 18 or more.
Brisbane have conceded five of their six tries this year through the middle and Martin runs that courage in-line, scoring four tries in his last eight games.
Taylan May was the Panthers’ top tryscorer in 2022 and has looked electric this year and Sunia Turuva has nine tries in his last 10 games.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Under 37.5 ($1.96)
- Tryscorer: Liam Martin ($19 First, $3.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Penrith Win/Taylan May Try/Sunia Turuva Try ($6.55)
The Warriors do seem very short in this one for a team without a win against an unbeaten side.
This game is played in Christchurch so while favouring the Warriors, they still need to travel.
The lack of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is an issue as well with the Warriors 6-11 against the spread without him v 9-3 against the number with him.
Also noteworthy is the fact the Warriors have covered just three of 11 when favoured by more than a converted try.
There is no real push for the Raiders – and Ricky Stuart has lost his mind pushing Zac Hosking back to the bench – but they are worth a bet considering the poor spot the Warriors are in.
Canberra can be bet with the plus and in head-to-head betting.
Xavier Savage is a legitimate speedster who has 10 tries in 22 starts but has started to figure out the NRL with tries in six of his last seven games.
Addin Fonua-Blake has 10 tries across the last two seasons – an excellent return for a prop – and he can take advantage of a fairly pedestrian Raiders middle.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Canberra ($2.60)
- Tryscorer: Xavier Savage ($12.50 First, $2.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Xavier Savage Try/Addin Fonua-Blake Try ($10.18)
The oldest rivalry in the NRL resumes this week when the Roosters and Rabbitohs square off at Allianz.
The Roosters are deserved favourites but the best play in this one is the under, which has hit in four straight and both teams are dealing with the loss of a half.
Luke Keary out under HIA protocols and Lachlan Ilias dropped from the Rabbitohs.
The Roosters are a big under team at Allianz, going 8-2 under at the venue.
There is a big spot early in the season too when teams are off conceding 18-plus in the first four rounds, going under at 75.5%, expect points to be hard to come by.
Dominic Young has scored 44 tries in 52 games since moving to the NRL and has two in three against South Sydney.
Jack Wighton has scored four tries in his last nine games against the Roosters and will be primed for a big game as he debuts for the Rabbitohs.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Tribet 1-6: Either Team Win By Less Than 6.5 Points ($2.60)
- Tryscorer: Dominic Young ($8.50 First, $2.02 Anytime)
- SGM: Dominic Young Try/Jack Wighton Try ($7.23)
Canterbury get an opportunity to quieten the chorus of disenchanted fans who have been terribly disappointed with the 0-2 start and the three tries scored over two weeks.
While team selection remains suboptimal, the Bulldogs certainly bring in a healthier and more talented team than the Titans, who remain without David Fifita and Jayden Campbell.
The Bulldogs will get a big boost playing at Belmore despite covering just 2 of 12 at the ground while they have won seven of nine when favoured over the last four seasons.
With the Titans covering just 12 of 19 when $2 or shorter in betting, the Bulldogs are a nice play.
Jacob Kiraz is not a noted tryscorer with just 12 in 37 games but likely switches to the wing this week and is a big price for a winger on a favoured team.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira has 21 tries in 25 NRL games, while Stephen Crichton scored on debut for the Bulldogs and has scored in two of four against the Titans.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Canterbury 13+ ($3.70)
- Tryscorer: Jacob Kiraz ($21 First, $3.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Stephen Crichton Try/Jacob Kiraz Try ($18.53)
The Dragons getting a big start is the bet of the week and will be one of the bets of the year.
It is astonishing they are getting so many points back at Kogarah off a humiliating loss against a poor travelling team.
Home underdogs of a try or more in the opening four rounds cover at 65% while home teams off a loss of 38 or more cover at 62%.
Shane Flanagan will have put the vinegar on this week and they will be ready.
The Cowboys have covered just 10 of 31 interstate and interstate favourites of a try or more in the opening four rounds cover at just 31%, a Red V ambush is on the cards.
Ben Hunt has 14 tries in 48 games and is over the odds in a game the Dragons are expected to dig in on.
Kyle Feldt has scored in 10 of his last 13 games, Mikaele Ravalawa has 64 tries in 88 NRL games and has scored 21 in his last 23.
Zac Laybutt looks electric and has five tries in his six NRL games.
Recommended Bets
- Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.80)
- Tryscorer: Ben Hunt ($21 First/$3.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Kyle Feldt Try/Mikaele Ravalawa Try/Zac Laybutt Try ($12.08)
The Tigers have won back-to-back wooden spoons and were abhorrent in patches last week but they are a good bet getting a huge start at home to the Sharks.
Big early season home underdogs cover at 65% and Cronulla, while being good defensively, have hardly set the world on fire with their attack.
Benji Marshall has made some positive team changes and rookie Lachlan Galvin looks like a super player.
This is a critical game for the Tigers and they can dig in at Leichhardt, where the underdog has covered seven of the last nine meetings.
Teig Wilton has 13 tries in 39 NRL starts including last week and has scored in five of his last 12 games.
Ronaldo Mulitalo has failed to scored in just seven of his last 25 games.
Justin Olam debuts for the Tigers and is their top attacking weapon, he has three tries in six games against the Sharks.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Wests Tigers +12.5/Under 45.5 ($2.90)
- Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($13 First/$2.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Ronaldo Mulitalo Try/Teig Wilton Try/Justin Olam Try ($16.47)
The most difficult game of the week between two old rivals, the Sea Eagles are playing better than the Eels and that may be enough in this one.
Manly has covered five of seven against the Eels and Manly’s record with Tom Trbojevic is a cover rate of 61% v a 35% without him.
It is also noteworthy that the Sea Eagles are a perfect 5-0 against the number under referee Peter Gough.
Tom Trbojevic has 40 tries in his last 38 games and had three multi-try games in 11 outings last season.
Haumole Olakau’atu has been in elite form and he knows his way to the tryline with 21 tries in his last 47 games.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Tom Trbojevic 2+ Tries ($8.50)
- Tryscorer: Haumole Olakau’atu ($19 First/$3.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Haumole Olakau’atu Try ($8.90)
It is stunning that Melbourne are outsiders here even though they are missing starting halves Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes.
The Storm held Penrith scoreless and come off a thrilling win over Top 4 team New Zealand.
The Knights have been very poor in their two losses. The Storm are likely to rely on their defence to get the job done here and as an elite defensive side, they can contain a slow-moving Knights team.
The Storm have won 11 of 12 against the Knights and are a bet as an underdog though the top play is betting Newcastle to be contained.
Ryan Papenhuyzen has 48 tries in 56 starts and comes off a double against the Warriors, while Will Warbrick has 18 tries in 28 NRL matches.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Newcastle Total Bands: 10 Points or Less ($4.25)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($11.50 First/$2.45 Anytime)
- SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Will Warbrick Try ($5.28)