The pressure is heaping on South Sydney and they face a difficult task with so many outs with key forward Jai Arrow joining the long list of absentees that includes Campbell Graham and Jack Wighton.
Brisbane are far more settled and probably somewhat steeled after the attack on Ezra Mam.
This is a nice spot for the Broncos too, they cover at a clip of 75% at Suncorp off a loss and have covered 11 of 14 off a double digit defeat.
They received some positive news with Brendan Piakura likely to play though the lack of an edge forward on the bench does cause some concern with Willison or Hunt hopefully joining the 17.
The Souths edges were carved up by Manly and Brisbane’s edges are far more lethal.
Kotoni Staggs gets a sensational matchup against defensively deficient Richie Kennar and Staggs has six tries in seven games against the Bunnies.
Selwyn Cobbo gets a similarly positive matchup and comes off scoring three tries in his last three against the Bunnies.
Next: Selwyn Cobbo 2+ Tries ($6.00)
Tryscorer: Kotoni Staggs ($13 First, $2.70 Anytime)
SGM: Brisbane Win/Kotoni Staggs Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try ($7.04)
The Sharks should have their way with the Bulldogs at Shark Park on Friday night with Cameron Ciraldo persisting with his ridiculous team selections.
Cronulla may be a team that lacks upside but they are a good side that make a habit of throttling poor teams and the Bulldogs are just that.
The Sharks cover at 60.5% when favoured by more than a try and have a dominant recent record against the Bulldogs with five straight wins of more than 12.
Briton Nikora will be running at Jaeman Salmon all game and that reaped two tries for Bryce Cartwright last week.
Nikora has 16 tries in his last 50 games and has crossed in three of his last four against the Bulldogs, while Ronaldo Mulitalo has 39 tries in 48 games across the last three years.
Sione Katoa has seven tries in six games against the Bulldogs and William Kennedy has 14 tries in his last 20 games.
Next: Winning Margin II: Cronulla 19+ ($3.35)
Tryscorer: Briton Nikora ($17 First, $3.60 Anytime)
SGM: Ronaldo Mulitalo Try/Sione Katoa Try/William Kennedy Try ($9.79)
Parramatta had a star-crossed 2023 but their year was certainly highlighted by two gutsy wins over Penrith.
They certainly lift for the Panthers.
Unfortunately this week, they catch Penrith off not only a loss but being held scoreless and that puts them in a very dangerous position.
Penrith have covered 12 of 15 off a loss including a 6-0 cover record at Penrith Stadium over the last three years when off a loss.
The Panthers are also 16-8 against the number at home when favoured by more than a converted try.
Penrith just have too much talent and will be far too focused for the Eels.
Nathan Cleary has scored in five of his last six games including his last meeting with the Eels.
Taylan May has 16 tries in 23 NRL games and looked the most dangerous Panther in Round 1.
Next: Penrith/Under 35.5 ($2.65)
Tryscorer: Nathan Cleary ($23 First, $5.00 Anytime)
SGM: Taylan May Try/Nathan Cleary Try ($13.59)
While the 16 other teams got their first hitout over the opening two weekends of Round 1, the Tigers and new coach Benji Marshall have been frothing at the bit after copping a first week bye.
That serves them well with all focus on this clash with the Raiders, they are big odds this week and look excellent value against a Raiders team that rarely meets expectations.
Canberra are 7-23 against the spread when favoured by more than four points and 12-26 against the number when off a win.
Benji is betting on youth here and that makes them value.
Solomona Faataape debuts for the Tigers after two very good years in the Queensland Cup where he scored 29 tries in 40 games with some explosive speed.
Zac Hosking scored the opener last week and is a key weapon for the Raiders on the edge.
Next: Wests Tigers ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Solomona Faataape ($19 First, $3.40 Anytime)
SGM: Solomona Faataape Try/Zac Hosking Try ($10.37
North Queensland will have few problems putting to bed a Newcastle team that lives and dies by Kalyn Ponga’s form.
Ponga started the season fine but unsurprisingly could not tap into the elite play that won him a Dally M last year.
The Cowboys have won all four meetings against the Knights at Queensland Country Bank, three of those by 12 or more points.
Teams off scoring 42 or more cover at 60% over the last three years while the Cowboys have covered 10 of 14 at home when favoured by more than a converted try and the Knights have covered just nine of 24 interstate.
Zac Laybutt was sensational against the Dolphins and now has five tries in five games and Kyle Feldt has scored in 10 of his last 14 games for North Queensland.
Next: North Queensland 13+ ($2.50)
Tryscorer: Zac Laybutt ($14 First, $2.60 Anytime)
SGM: Zac Laybutt Try/Kyle Feldt Try ($4.93)
The Storm remain without Cameron Munster and Nelson Asofa-Solomona but remain a good bet against a Warriors team that have a dire record against Melbourne.
Once the Storm’s bogey team, the Warriors have lost 14 straight to Melbourne with the last seven by at least eight points and to make it tougher, they are also missing their key player in Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.
The Warriors are 5-11 against the spread without him and 9-3 against the spread with him across 2023-24.
The key here for Melbourne is their defence, teams coming off a shutout win are 19-8 against the spread the last three years with the Storm 4-0 in covering in that spot.
The Storm have also covered 14 of 20 off conceding 10 or fewer.
Eliesa Katoa has six tries in his last 12 games and will be keen to score against his former team and Ryan Papenhuyzen has 46 tries in 55 starts at NRL level.
Will Warbrick has 17 tries in 26 games and gets a plus-matchup against Marcelo Montoya.
Next: Melbourne 13+ ($2.65)
Tryscorer: Eliesa Katoa ($21 First, $4.25 Anytime)
SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Will Warbrick Try ($5.09)
Arguably the game of the week, the two winners from the Las Vegas double-header square off at Brookvale.
The money has come hard for the Roosters but the best bet in this one is the under, which hits at 67.5% when an underdog is off a win in the opening four rounds while it hits at 65.8% in the opening four rounds when a team is off scoring 36-plus.
With the last four between the Sea Eagles and Roosters going under, the best play is to bet the streak to continue.
Joey Manu scored first in Las Vegas for the Roosters and has scored in his last three against Manly.
Tom Trbojevic is an elite tryscorer who has 40 tries in his last 37 games and even though he didn’t score in Vegas, he did get across the line three times.
Next: Alternate Total Under 32.5 ($3.35)
Tryscorer: Joseph Manu ($15 First, $3.05 Anytime)
SGM: Joseph Manu Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($7.09)
These two teams had very different Round 1s with the Dolphins embarrassed by the Cowboys while the Dragons smashed the Titans.
The early money has come for the Saints but they are not a team that can be bet as an interstate favourite as they cover at just 40% when leaving New South Wales.
The Dolphins have covered all three of their games at Redcliffe and look the play here, particularly after some positive team changes.
Jake Averillo was surprisingly overlooked for selection in Round 1 but has got the nod for Round 2 and he has 22 tries in 49 games when starting as an outside back.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 20 tries in 35 starts at fullback, while Tyrell Sloan comes off a three-try performance against the Titans and he now has nine tries in his last 10 games.
Next: Dolphins 1-12 ($3.15)
Tryscorer: Jake Averillo ($16 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Tyrell Sloan Try ($4.89)