Newcastle may well be the most overrated team in the competition in 2024.
They finished last season fifth on a wave of momentum caused by Kalyn Ponga’s irrepressible form.
Ponga is highly unlikely to be able to replicate that and he certainly won’t in Round 1.
The halves the Knights are wheeling out is a worry while star rake Jayden Brailey is out hurt.
The Raiders have a very poor roster this year and have no Seb Kris or Corey Horsburgh in Round 1 but it is exciting to see former Panther Zac Hosking win a backrow spot.
The start in this one is far too big with Round 1 underdogs of six points or more covering at 68% since 2008.
Canberra start fast under Ricky Stuart too with nine covers in their last 10 openers including the most recent five.
Underdogs of at least four points have a +12% profit on turnover when bet head-to-head blindly.
Hosking has three tries in 26 games but is a great line runner and is huge overs this week.
Greg Marzhew averaged a try a game last year and scored four in three clashes with the Raiders.
Xavier Savage has nine tries in 22 NRL games and has scored 11 in nine NSW Cup games when starting on a wing.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Canberra Win ($2.85)
- Tryscorer: Zac Hosking ($31 First, $6.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Canberra +7.5/Greg Marzhew Try/Xavier Savage Try ($8.50)
Wahs Fever remains in full effect in New Zealand and it is starting to infiltrate the betting markets.
The Warriors are favoured by 4.5 in this one and that may be a little large, New Zealand get a huge boost with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck but the loss of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is massive.
The Warriors covered 75% of games when CNK played last year and just 33% when he did not.
While there is some value with the Sharks, the top play is the under, which has hit at 63.3% in Round 1 night games since 2008 with a14-4 record in the opening round across the last three seasons.
With the Warriors likely to rely on their defence – and the Sharks will need to – this game looks set to be a grind.
Teig Wilton has been a profitable tryscorer as a starter with 12 tries in 37 games when starting as an edge backrower.
Luke Metcalf is arguably the fastest player on the field and he has a nice strike rate with nine tries in 19 NRL games.
Ronaldo Mulitalo is an elite tryscorer with 65 tries in 87 games including eight in nine against the Warriors.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Cronulla +4.5 ($1.90)
- Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($23 First, $5.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Luke Metcalf Try/Ronaldo Mulitalo Try ($7.50
The best total of Round 1 is the under when three-time defending premiers Penrith travel to Melbourne to take on the Storm.
As mentioned above, Round 1 night games go under at 63.3% with a 14-4 record in the last three seasons.
If that was not enough, the under has hit at 63% when the betting line is a try or less in the opening round.
This is a big under spot for both teams too with the under 17-6 when Penrith are an interstate favourite and is 10-6 when the Storm are underdogs.
Melbourne have been big drifters here and are well and truly out to a bet.
Home underdogs of more than a try in the opening four rounds hits at 64% while the Storm have won 14 of their last 15 Round 1 games, covering six of their last seven.
Ryan Papenhuyzen is an elite tryscorer with 46 tries in 54 starts at the NRL level and has scored in his last two starts against the Panthers.
Taylan May was Penrith’s top tryscorer in his only full season back in 2022, scoring 16 tries in 21 games.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Melbourne Win ($2.50)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($15 First/$3.30 Anytime)
- SGM: Alternate Total Under 31.5/Taylan May Try ($9.37)
Parramatta have a dominant recent record against Canterbury with 13 wins in the last 16 meetings, skewing one of Rugby League’s great rivalries.
It is hard not to be all over the Bulldogs here though. Round 1 underdogs of six or more cover at 68% while Parramatta have failed to cover any of their last four Round 1 games.
Parramatta have a dire record under Grant Atkins too, covering just 10 of 30, well below their overall cover record over that time.
Jacob Preston is a quality tryscorer, ranking in the top 10% last year for edge backrowers, and his tries come early making him particularly good value for first try.
Sean Russell has 14 tries in 20 games and is undervalued in his ability to score.
Ditto Blake Wilson, who scored six tries in 11 games last season with very little creativity inside him.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Canterbury ($2.90)
- Tryscorer: Jacob Preston ($26 First, $4.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Sean Russell Try/Blake Wilson Try ($5.98)
It is always sound policy to bet against teams the public are well against and the Dragons are certainly one of those teams.
Everyone is off the Saints because they are a bad team, but the Titans are hardly world-beaters and are without David Fifita and Jayden Campbell.
Any team with Tanah Boyd at halfback should not be laying a try. Round 1 underdogs of at least a try cover at 64% while the Titans gave covered just 30% of games when favoured across
the last two seasons. The Dragons have a better spine so they look a good bet here.
Ben Hunt ranks among the top 15% of halfbacks when it comes to tries and comes off his best tryscoring season since 2015 when crossing for eight last season.
Beau Fermor returns off an ACL that kept him out all of last season but has 17 tries in 40 starts and is over the odds.
Tyrell Sloan is a wonderful mover who has 17 tries in 36 games.
Recommended Bets
- Next: St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Ben Hunt ($21 First/$4 Anytime)
- SGM: Beau Fermor Try/Tyrell Sloan Try ($7.63)
The Dolphins are a tremendous bet both getting the 5.5 points and at the big price in head-to-head markets.
Last year the new boys stunned the Roosters in Round 1 and covered their first four games of the season.
Home underdogs of at least a try cover at 66% in the opening four rounds.
North Queensland have also been very slow starters, covering just four of 14 Round 1 games and failing to cover any of their last four.
A fast Suncorp suits the speedy Phins and the betting in this seems well out of whack.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scored 15 tries in 20 games last season and has proven an elite tryscoring fullback.
Jamayne Isaako topped the tryscoring tally last year with 24 tries in 24 games.
Zac Laybutt has three tries in four games and has proven himself as a tryscorer at international level as well.
Recommended Bets
- Next: Dolphins 13+ ($6.40)
- Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($13 First/$2.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Jamayne Isaako Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Zac Laybutt Try ($16.16)