How about that ride in? I guess that’s why they call it “Sin City”
They say in Vegas that the house always wins and if “the house” was me and “always wins” was enjoying the footy over the weekend then I think it’s a pretty accurate statement.
With Vegas in the rear view mirror, the second half of round one gets underway this weekend and while I am excited – I’m a bit annoyed it’s a weekend without my Broncs.
What I’m more annoyed about is starting 0/2 in tipping this year. If your mate says they backed both the underdogs to get the win in Vegas I reckon they’re a deadset liar.
I’ll be the first to put my hand up and say I had a stinker last weekend but would you believe it, there is more footy to punt on coming up.
Here’s a couple of SGMs (or “Same Game Multis” for those not up with the lingo) that I reckon really rev my tractor this weekend.
Also, listen to our poddy ya dogs.
Finally we have some Thursday night footy back.
Thursdays have been an awkward tv night in my house (the address of which you can find here) for far too long.
MAFS wraps up for the week on Wednesday and then there’s usually no sport on till Friday at the earliest.
I’m very thankful Thursday night footy is back.
We’re getting started with a Newy Knights side who were incredibly reliable to punt on last year.
Dom Young and Greg Marzhew were very very safe ATS legs last year but now that Dom Young has departed to the Chooks. It will be a wait and see if it was all his hard work or the Knights’ system.
Nothing about Canberra excites me this year (except my very distant cousin Jamal Fogarty (No actual relation… that I know of)).
I expect the Knights to steam roll them in the first game on Aussie soil this year. Give me the Knights -7.5
I just mentioned old Greg. Let’s throw him in the multi purely for nostalgia purposes. Greg Marzhew ATS is a very short $1.75.
The question still stands, was it Dom Young or was it the Knights last year? Are the shoes too big for Tuala to fill? Or will the Knights hook him up early?
Given we haven’t seen them play yet, you’ve got to go off last years performances so let’s throw Tuala in for a tryza as well.
Newy v The Milk: $4.62
- Knights -7.5 @ $1.90
- Greg Marzhew Anytime Try Scorer @ $1.75
- Enari Tuala Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.00
It’s a well known fact that the Storm don’t lose in Round 1 and that age old saying will be put to the test when they take on the losers of the World Club Challenge on Friday night.
Credit where credit is due, to make the World Club Challenge, you have to have done some pretty good stuff the previous season but I’m not here to talk about Penrith’s performance last year.
I think the Storm are a huge chance in this one, yes they’re up against the reigning prems but only fools count out Bellza’s men.
$2.40 for an out and out win is something I’ll be having a crack on as a single bet but for multi purposes, let’s take an alternate line to get us underway.
Melbourne Storm +6.5 at $1.64 is where I shall begin this multi.
My close personal friend, Oscar Pannifex, who I happen to share a podcast with went on a massive spiel about Storm winger Will Warbrick this week on the pod (you should definitely listen to it) but $2.85 for a Melbourne Storm winger to score a try is pretty ridic and certainly a market I will be including in this multi.
Given that the Panthers are favourites, let’s put a Penny try scorer in here too. Brian To’o is where I’m leaning, $2.15 for him is crazy value as well.
Storm v WCC Losers SGM $9.05
- Storm +6.5 @ $1.64
- Will Warbrick Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.85
- Brian To’o Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.15
Saturday night, my home town boys the GC Titans will host the Dragons which is giving me flashbacks to the first ever Titans game when they went down to St George 18-20. Save that one away for pub trivia.
I don’t think the Dragons will win this season opener however. Sure they’ve made a handful of changes but I honestly don’t think any of them are meaningful enough to turn around the performances they’ve been putting up lately.
Free Ben Hunt is all I have to say about the Dragons at this point in the year.
The Titans on the other hand I’m incredibly bullish on this season. They’ve always had enough talent to compete, I’m hoping that Des can whip them into shape this year.
The line is set at 6 points flat at the moment. Let’s take the Titans to win by a try or more. Who scores the tries though? I hear you ask.
Give me Brian Kelly at $2.90. He’s playing his 100th game for the Titans this weekend and should put on a performance.
The other bloke I’m taking is actually a shorter price in the market and that is Big Bad Beau Fermor.
I mentioned this stat on the poddy but I’ll repeat it. The Dragons allowed a try to opposistion second rowers in 40% of their games last year. Beau is coming off an ACL tear but I like him to return in a big way here!
GC v Drags SGM $9.50
- Titans -6 @ $1.90
- Brian Kelly Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.90
- Beau Fermor Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.65
Man I’m a sucker for a QLD derby and I’m actually going to this game, so if you see me you are legally obliged to shout me a beer.
Does this derby have a name yet? I’m not sure but what I am sure of is that the bookies are wrong about the Phins and the Cowboys.
I reckon the Dolphins are incredible value in this game, I personally think they will do better than everyone is giving them credit for this year and I think the Cows might be on a proper slide this year.
For that reason I’ve taken the Phins to cover as my leg of the podcast multi. (Have I mentioned I’m on the Neds NRL Podcast yet? You should listen to it). So I will definitely be taking it here.
Tryscorer wise, I think Herbie on debut goes over, $3.10 for him is pretty lit.
My brain is telling me to take the Hammer or Isaako at $2.70 and $2.15 respectively but I think I’m going to take Nanai from the Cows.
That man is a try scoring machine and didn’t play as much footy as I wanted him to last year. Fingers crossed he stays healthy this season, the Cows missed him in 2023.
Phins v Cows SGM $11.66
- Dolphins +6.5 @ $1.90
- Jeremiah Nanai Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.25
- Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.15